Unemployment is 3.9 percent

[Into the Night]

I see it differently.

Reagan spent heavily but ended the Cold War.

That he did. In my opinion his greatest accomplishment.

Bush I didn't really take advantage of the peace that followed.

True.

Clinton on the other hand, after a bad first two years, figured out how to work with Republicans and was able to massively cut government spending,

No. Government spending has NEVER BEEN CUT. Cutting increases is NOT a cut in spending.

force people off welfare and into working,

Despite Clinton, not because of him.

and by the end of his second term got to a balanced budget.

The budget has NEVER been balanced. Taking stuff off the books is NOT how you balance a budget.

Bush II ended up in another war-- not of his making-- and the economy moved along okay.

Did you forget the dot com bust that occurred just after Clinton? Bush II didn't muck with it, and it corrected itself.

The crash at the end came right after Obama was elected...

Correct.

Obama had a mediocre 8 years in office. The economy limped along at best.

Also correct. These were the Days of Communism, when Obama nationalized automotive companies, the used car industry, and the health insurance industry.

Trump got elected and the economy picked up right until Fauci plague came along and crashed it. That's hardly Trump's fault.

Much of what Trump did was reverse Obama's disasters. He also concentrated on getting government out of the way of conducting business.

Now we have Biden in office and he's fucking things up as badly as Carter did.

Worse. At least we had a good laugh when Carter got attacked by a frog (the CIA shot it), or when he barfed on the Prime Minister of Japan.

The economy is a trainwreck.

Thanks to DEMOCRAT shutdowns.

If you can remember back to the Carter years, the stock market and investment accounts were booming then too, but the wider economy was absolutely fucked.

Mostly because of price controls Carter was implementing. Price controls never work. They always cause shortages.

That is, the rich got (and get) richer, while the not-so-rich and poor get screwed.

The rich got screwed as well.

What I see as the problem is Democrats are generally inclined not to work with Republicans at all.

Their idea of 'compromise' is capitulation.

Clinton was the exception.

On the other hand, Republicans are becoming less and less inclined to work with Democrats.

I doubt a Clinton-Republican cooperation is possible today and most of that is on the Democrats, just as it has been for decades.

 

[Flash]

That's "around 58%." It also doesn't explain that if 59.5% of the workforce is employed, and 3.9% are unemployed, what the other 36.6% are doing... That's a bit more than 1 in 3 workers who isn't accounted for here.

"Labor force participation for the entire working age population declined from an annual average of 67% in 2000 to 63% in 2019. This partly reflects a steep drop in participation among 16- to 24-year-olds (66% to 56%) as young people increasingly pursued schooling rather than employment. Participation has also been declining this century among the “prime working age” population, those ages 25 to 54. The overall decline in labor force participation would have been larger if adults 55 and older had not increased their labor force participation (from 32% in 2000 to 40% in 2019).
It is unclear whether the pandemic-induced increase in retirement among older adults will be temporary or longer lasting. Newly published labor force projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest it will be temporary. BLS projects large increases in labor force participation among older adults from 2020 to 2030, with nearly 40% of 65- to 69-year-olds being in the labor force by 2030, up from 33% in 2020."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ng-share-of-older-u-s-adults-are-now-retired/

 

[Jarod]

Trump promised me a massive depression if Biden were allowed to be inaugurated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/ncna1287241

Trump lies!

 

[T. A. Gardner]

The economy crashed BEFORE Obama was elected. Why fabricate that? It's easy to check.

I agree that the parties need to cooperate. But it is 100% laughable that "most of that is on the Democrats." Republicans have come out & stated that their job is to be obstructionist.

You're just making excuses for Republicans. It's not a real discussion.

No, it crashed almost immediately after Obama was elected.

December 2007 is the agreed start date by historians, economists, and even the government

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-of-200709

That's just a few weeks after Obama was elected.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

"Labor force participation for the entire working age population declined from an annual average of 67% in 2000 to 63% in 2019. This partly reflects a steep drop in participation among 16- to 24-year-olds (66% to 56%) as young people increasingly pursued schooling rather than employment. Participation has also been declining this century among the “prime working age” population, those ages 25 to 54. The overall decline in labor force participation would have been larger if adults 55 and older had not increased their labor force participation (from 32% in 2000 to 40% in 2019).
It is unclear whether the pandemic-induced increase in retirement among older adults will be temporary or longer lasting. Newly published labor force projections from the Bureau of Labor Statistics suggest it will be temporary. BLS projects large increases in labor force participation among older adults from 2020 to 2030, with nearly 40% of 65- to 69-year-olds being in the labor force by 2030, up from 33% in 2020."

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...ng-share-of-older-u-s-adults-are-now-retired/

That may partially explain away why over a third of eligible workers aren't working, but it hardly explains it all.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

The coffee shop is closed in many areas.

Maybe that explains some of the unemployment...

 

[BartenderElite]

No, it crashed almost immediately after Obama was elected.

December 2007 is the agreed start date by historians, economists, and even the government

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-of-200709

That's just a few weeks after Obama was elected.

That link isn't the crash. It's when the Recession started. Which is a fall in growth for 2 successive quarters, generally - though some use recession when it goes for a few months. Regardless, it's something that comes after a crash.

The crash was in September.

 

[ExpressLane]

That may partially explain away why over a third of eligible workers aren't working, but it hardly explains it all.

Baby Boomers that have retired are not part of the unemployment number. So for every Baby Boomer that retires the unemployment number improves slightly. And as Bird Brain Lady pointed out Baby Boomers are retiring at increased numbers. Thus benefitting Biden's unemployment numbers.

 

[McRocket]

Just a crappy economy.

So what if unemployment is 3.9%? The U30 is meaningless on its own, that's why politicians cite it so often. The employment rate in the US has remained flat at around 57 to 58%. That means that if the unemployment rate has fallen, fewer people are looking for work, not that more people are working.

I would posit that a major reason for this is that unemployment and welfare benefits at the moment are quite generous and amount to somewhere (depending on a person's circumstances) the equivalent of $20 and $30 an hour pay. Given that, why would anyone take a job for less pay than they can get sitting around doing nothing?

I think you meant 'U-3'...I want to make sure others know what you mean.


And I agree 100% with you on this.

The U-3 (the official unemployment rate) is almost meaningless.
How the fuck can you say the 'unemployment rate/U-3' is accurate when it does NOT include everyone eligible whom has no job, wants a job and is ready to start a job? But has given up actively looking because they have looked for months and there simply is nothing in their field, at this time, in their living area?
How the FUCK is that not an unemployed person?

Before (I think it was) 1994? When they changed it?
The U-3 was FAR better.
Because before that time?
The unemployment rate DID count those 'discouraged workers'.
Not any longer.

The best, single bls (bureau of labor statistics) stat to judge the employment situation in America, IMO, is with the Employment-Population ratio.
https://www.bls.gov/cps/definitions.htm#epop

It has it's flaws.
But it is, IMO, a HECK of a lot better than the joke that is the U-3.

 

[McRocket]

I agree with most of your points, but:

The budget has NEVER been balanced. Taking stuff off the books is NOT how you balance a budget.

The budget has been balanced many times.
Though not nearly as often as it should have been.

https://www.polidiotic.com/by-the-numbers/us-federal-deficit-by-year/

 

[McRocket]

First - I despise both parties.
Trump is a manchild.
And Biden is a boring, career politician whom is slowly, going senile.
Congress is beyond useless.
Both houses.
Both sides.

Second - this month's bls jobs report IS a solid one, IMO.
Look at all of the main and important statistics?
And they have improved.
Dozens of them.

Any Biden-haters whom say otherwise are simply wrong.
It's a good, solid, jobs report.

Third - however?
In the last six, recorded months of government spending/receiving?
The federal government has increased the deficit by over a trillion dollars.
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/mts/mts.pdf

And the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has increased by over $800 billion dollars.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm

That is $1.8 trillion total...in just six months.
Equal to over $5,400 for every, single American (adult and child).

Any moron can grow an economy by throwing absolutely, HUGE, FUCKING SHITLOADS of government/Fed debt at it.
That takes NO SKILL whatsoever.
NONE.
(Trump sucked at it as well, BTW. Though not this badly. So did Obama and GWB...though neither as badly as the first two.)

When 'Biden' can improve the unemployment situation by living 'within his means'?
THEN and ONLY THEN will I be impressed.


And please save the old 'Biden has to stimulate the economy during Covid-19' excuse?

There is ZERO unbiased, factual evidence that throwing HUGE sums of money at an economy is the only way or even a decent way to stimulate it.

Look at the 1920/21 depression.
Don't feel bad if you have not heard of it.
LOTS of people haven't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depression_of_1920–1921

To 'fight' the depression?
The governments of the day cut tax rates, cut spending, balanced the budget and let the economy fix itself.
Now, according to today's financial 'experts'?
That could NEVER work or it will mean the economy will recover too slowly.
The result?
The economy was back to normal in 3.5 years whilst the national debt went down by over 10%.

Whilst under the Great Depression and it's New Deal?
The unemployment rate took 12 years to reach it's pre-crash level.
The national debt more than doubled
https://www.polidiotic.com/by-the-numbers/us-national-debt-by-year/
And the DOW took 25 years to reach it's pre-1929 crash high.

This notion that governments MUST spend their way out economic hardships is complete nonsense.
But since politicians LOVE to spend money.
They will almost never tell you that.

 

[gemini104104]

Trump promised me a massive depression if Biden were allowed to be inaugurated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/ncna1287241

After the majority gave the lawlessly hacked in sewer creep tRump the boot in 2021 who was not hacked in there to create jobs but to destroy Democracy from within and the soul of humanity, President Biden's team created policies that resulted in a 3.9 unemployment rate, the lowest since 1969:

Biden: Unemployment numbers show 'jobs recovery is one of the strongest ever'

President Biden on Wednesday touted the number of unemployment insurance claims, stating that the number represents one of the strongest jobs recoveries ever.

“Today, we received further evidence that our jobs recovery is one of the strongest ever. The average number of Americans filing for unemployment over the last four weeks is now at its lowest level since 1969,” Biden said in a statement.

The four-week moving average for claims fell by 16,000 to 203,750, the lowest level since Nov. 15, 1969. New applications for jobless aide rose slightly last week, totaling 206,000, an increase of 18,000 from the previous week’s revised total of 188,000. "
https://thehill.com/homenews/admini...jobs-numbers-show-jobs-recovery-is-one-of-the

 

[ExpressLane]

Trump promised me a massive depression if Biden were allowed to be inaugurated.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.msnbc.com/msnbc/amp/ncna1287241

Biden still has 3 more years to cause a depression.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

Biden still has 3 more years to cause a depression.

Most people are already depressed he's ruining... err, running... things...

 

[Cypress]

Biden still has 3 more years to cause a depression.

That's exactly what conservatives told me during the Obama years.

I was practically promised by conservatives that Obamacare would destroy the economy.

 

[LV426]

No, it crashed almost immediately after Obama was elected.

You're such a fucking liar.

The Bush Economic Collapse (thanks to his Tax Cuts and Deregulation) started in 2007, not after Obama was elected.

Lehman collapsed September 15th, 2008.

The election wouldn't be for two more months.

December 2007 is the agreed start date by historians, economists, and even the government
That's just a few weeks after Obama was elected.

OBAMA WAS ELECTED IN 2008, NOT 2007 YOU STUPID, LYING PIECE OF SHIT.

 

[Cypress]

No, it crashed almost immediately after Obama was elected.

December 2007 is the agreed start date by historians, economists, and even the government

https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/great-recession-of-200709

That's just a few weeks after Obama was elected.

I never had you pegged for a blatant and shameless liar.

George Dumbya Bush was president in December 2007. Obama was not elected until eleven months later, and did not assume office until 13 months later in January 2009.

 

[LV426]

I never had you pegged for a blatant and shameless liar.

George Dumbya Bush was president in December 2007. Obama was not elected until eleven months later, and did not assume office until 13 months later in January 2009.

If you want to get technical and precise, the crisis really started in 2006 because that's when the first shitty subprime mortgages started defaulting.

 

[Cypress]

If you want to get technical and precise, the crisis really started in 2006 because that's when the first shitty subprime mortgages started defaulting.

If TA Gardener wants to claim Obama was elected in November 2007, and is thus supposedly responsible for the 2008 economic meltdown, all of his posts and claims showed be viewed with extreme skepticsm.

 

[Into the Night]

That link isn't the crash. It's when the Recession started. Which is a fall in growth for 2 successive quarters, generally - though some use recession when it goes for a few months. Regardless, it's something that comes after a crash.

The crash was in September.

Nope. Didn't show until December, the month after election day.