Russia is losing in Ukraine. Xi has noticed
During talks last week with President Donald Trump in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly remarked that Vladimir Putin might one day regret invading Ukraine.
The new trends on the battlefield suggest he’s right. That offers a new chance for Trump’s diplomacy to end the war—but with a different approach than what he’s tried before.
Trends now favor Ukraine
Putin had hoped that 2026 would be the year his forces — enabled by his advantage in mass and manpower — would break through the frontlines and seize the contested regions in eastern Ukraine. That has not happened.
Thus far, it’s Ukraine — not Russia — that has achieved net territorial gains this year, together with inflicting massive losses on Russia’s invading forces.
Western estimates now place Russian casualties at levels approaching or exceeding 30,000 to 40,000 killed and wounded per month — an extraordinary rate of attrition for no gains in territory. Overall Russian casualties since the invasion began are now widely estimated well above one million and outpacing Russia’s ability to replenish.
The pressure is becoming visible inside Russia itself.
In recent days, even a member of Russia’s parliament publicly warned that the Russian economy may not be able to sustain a prolonged war indefinitely, citing soaring defense expenditures and mounting economic distortions. Putin himself recently said the war could be “coming to an end” — a striking statement from a leader who has repeatedly framed the conflict as an existential struggle requiring indefinite sacrifice.
Ukraine’s drones: the force multiplier
In an acknowledgment that Ukraine now has Moscow in range, Russia’s state news agency this week reported one of largest Ukrainian drone attacks near the capital.
These attacks are now forcing Russia to disperse air defenses, relocate aircraft, harden infrastructure and devote increasing resources to homeland defense. In military terms, Ukraine is expanding the battlespace and raising the costs of the war for Moscow, at the same time Moscow is struggling to gain any territory on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Putin confronts strategic defeat
The NATO alliance despite rhetorical critiques from Trump is larger today than when Russia invaded — Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance — and arguably stronger, with increases in defense spending throughout NATO’s European capitals.
Thus, despite enormous and mounting losses for Russia, Putin has little to show for his war in Ukraine and the trends appear only to be worsening month by month.
During talks last week with President Donald Trump in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping reportedly remarked that Vladimir Putin might one day regret invading Ukraine.
The new trends on the battlefield suggest he’s right. That offers a new chance for Trump’s diplomacy to end the war—but with a different approach than what he’s tried before.
Trends now favor Ukraine
Putin had hoped that 2026 would be the year his forces — enabled by his advantage in mass and manpower — would break through the frontlines and seize the contested regions in eastern Ukraine. That has not happened.
Thus far, it’s Ukraine — not Russia — that has achieved net territorial gains this year, together with inflicting massive losses on Russia’s invading forces.
Western estimates now place Russian casualties at levels approaching or exceeding 30,000 to 40,000 killed and wounded per month — an extraordinary rate of attrition for no gains in territory. Overall Russian casualties since the invasion began are now widely estimated well above one million and outpacing Russia’s ability to replenish.
The pressure is becoming visible inside Russia itself.
In recent days, even a member of Russia’s parliament publicly warned that the Russian economy may not be able to sustain a prolonged war indefinitely, citing soaring defense expenditures and mounting economic distortions. Putin himself recently said the war could be “coming to an end” — a striking statement from a leader who has repeatedly framed the conflict as an existential struggle requiring indefinite sacrifice.
Ukraine’s drones: the force multiplier
In an acknowledgment that Ukraine now has Moscow in range, Russia’s state news agency this week reported one of largest Ukrainian drone attacks near the capital.
These attacks are now forcing Russia to disperse air defenses, relocate aircraft, harden infrastructure and devote increasing resources to homeland defense. In military terms, Ukraine is expanding the battlespace and raising the costs of the war for Moscow, at the same time Moscow is struggling to gain any territory on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Putin confronts strategic defeat
The NATO alliance despite rhetorical critiques from Trump is larger today than when Russia invaded — Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance — and arguably stronger, with increases in defense spending throughout NATO’s European capitals.
Thus, despite enormous and mounting losses for Russia, Putin has little to show for his war in Ukraine and the trends appear only to be worsening month by month.
