The Republican Party is Dying. Old, Racist, and Cannot Grow.

B

blackascoal

The Force is With Me
The answer to why Trump's base is still clinging to him is because they have nowhere else to go. For them, this is Custer's Last Stand and they are surrounded by Indians.

Republicans painted themselves into this corner and hastened their doom with the election of Donald Trump. Trump has exposed them in ways that republicans have tried to keep hidden. He has exposed their gross disdain for women .. in the year of rising woman issues and demands. He has even exposed their love and support for a known pedophile.

He has exposed their gross racism and hate of non-white people .. all of them. Republicans were never far from a racist identity, given the make-up of their virtual all-white party, but Trump leaves no doubt about it.

Thus, by their own design, they cannot grow as a party Large majorities on non-whites hate republicans and want nothing to do with them, and much of their base is already old.

Data shows a downward demographic spiral for Republicans

Lost on the party during this, however, would seem to be that they are statistically experiencing the ultimate political “dead cat bounce.”

The term comes from stock markets and refers to a sequence of events where a stock sees a temporary and brief recovery after a severe and prolonged decline, followed by a return to that same decline. The short recovery was really just a mirage as the underlying problems still exist, returning the stock to its initial, inertial free fall.

The key to understanding this phenomenon for the Republican Party is to look at changing U.S. demographics.

Minorities increasingly comprise larger shares of the U.S. population, with Hispanics and African-Americans currently making up 17.6 percent and 13.3 percent of the population, respectively. When accounting for all minorities in the U.S., whites now make up just 61.6 percent of the population.

And that last percentage is shrinking. The U.S. Census Bureau now estimates that by 2044, no race or ethnicity in the U.S. will represent a majority of the population… and that includes whites. This sort of rapidity of a country’s population composition changing seems to be unprecedented.
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/11/data-shows-a-downward-demographic-spiral-for-republicans/

Grand Old People Party
Republicans are old and getting older. That’s a huge problem for the GOP

As of the end of last year, the primetime median age of Fox News viewers was 68.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_..._getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html

Consider this .. the majority of white voters in 2016 elected Trump .. and Hillary Clinton still got 3 million more voters then Trump did.

Trump and republicans are only digging the holes deeper. Instead of reaching out to all Americans, they're just too damn busy digging their own graves.

I suspect the Republican Party will be replaced by the Libertarian Party .. while republicans morph into the Whigs.
 
blackascoal said:
Trump and republicans are only digging the holes deeper. Instead of reaching out to all Americans, they're just too damn busy digging their own graves.

I suspect the Republican Party will be replaced by the Libertarian Party .. while republicans morph into the Whigs.
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I can't shed a tear over this. The future belongs to progressive thinking humans. What we will create will benefit everyone -- even the dinosaurs.

You're welcome, Repubs.
 
Grand Old People Party
Republicans are old and getting older. That’s a huge problem for the GOP

As of the end of last year, the primetime median age of Fox News viewers was 68.
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Outside of white rural Alabama and evangelical churches, I always presumed it would be acutely embarrassing to be a millennial-aged Republican.

Wouldn't you basically be, like, the laughing stock of your peer group??

sleeping-for-mccain.jpg
 
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Since I'm sitting at home doing nothing because i'm watching my daughter while the wife is out I'll respond, if that is ok.

As a Republican I have the same concerns. It's why I didn't vote for Trump because unlike Reagan who brought people into the Republican Party I believe Trump turns them away. I'm afraid of the long term damage he is doing to the party. I saw first hand what Prop 187 did to Republicans in California (even though a number of Democrats voted for it).

On the other hand the OP says nothing about the Democrats ability to govern. Yes certain groups lean Democratic but to assume they will always vote that way regardless of the job being done (on a national level) is not a given imo.

I asked my buddy who is second or third generation Latino how offensive he found Trump. He said he didn't care but new arrivals do. I'm not articulating this the best but it's the point Grind has made before that as people integrate themselves more as American it's possible they don't vote strictly on their race or ethnicity.

I guess at age 45 I'm old enough to be very cynical politically and having seen books from both the Republican and Democratic side about their coming majorities and seeing them both be wrong I'm not ready to buy into another one of those predictions.
 
you draw a couple of erroneous conclusions.

First, people age, and as they age they become more conservative.

Second, there is nothing inherent about say.. minorities being against low taxes. Lets assume African Americans acheive better racial equality in 20 years, that might lead a great % of African Americans to come over to republicans to want to keep taxes down or have less regulation. Right now they are with democrats because they feel they dont have any other choice. But this could easily change in the future.

Third, and more importantly, when we talk about the growing hispanic population it's important to point out that many second generation hispanics identiy with the label "white", and this is something that has been going on for a very long time, and there has been multiple studies and articles written about it. So you can't just assume that with an increase of hispanics means a direct coerlation to the "white" population declining. At one point in history Irish and Italians also weren't considered part of white america.
 
Which is why they control congress, most governorships, most state houses and the WH. Thread fail.
 
Let's analyze this.

McCain and Romney didn't appeal to the base and they lost. Trump energized the base and he won. Looks like we figured out what the winning formula is.
 
The projection is sound, but—as I wrote last month—we should temper this prediction of a majority-minority future with an awareness of race and shifting identity. As a category, “Hispanic” includes a range of ethnic and racial backgrounds, from Afro-Brazilians and brown-skinned Puerto Ricans to indigenous Mexicans and Argentinians of largely European descent.

Assimilation, intermarriage, and upward mobility might lead some Hispanics to identify as “white,” even as they hold to their cultural heritage. And in the same way, society may reciprocate, treating light-skinned, European Hispanics as ethnic whites, akin to Italians and Eastern Europeans. Which would fit the American pattern.
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For all the complexity of our national complexion, Americans still too often think that white makes right.
Consider a new study of census returns reported on by the Pew Research Center. It showed, apparently, that significant numbers of Hispanics are now identifying as white. The research was presented at the recent Population Association of America meeting.
Some news reports suggested that Hispanics, rather than solidifying a distinct ethnic identity and becoming the driving force of a "majority-minority" future, might instead try to be just the latest group of immigrants, such as Italians or Jews, to "become white."
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source: https://www.cnn.com/2014/05/29/opinion/liu-study-hispanics-favor-whiteness/index.html

An earlier Pew report indicated that the longer their families had been in America, the more likely Hispanics were to check the "white" box. This suggests that the way Americans say "upward mobility for immigrants" or "mainstream integration" is still too often "becoming white."
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we should temper this prediction of a majority-minority future with an awareness of race and shifting identity. As a category, “Hispanic” includes a range of ethnic and racial backgrounds, from Afro-Brazilians and brown-skinned Puerto Ricans to indigenous Mexicans and Argentinians of largely European descent.

Assimilation, intermarriage, and upward mobility might lead some Hispanics to identify as “white,” even as they hold to their cultural heritage. And in the same way, society may reciprocate, treating light-skinned, European Hispanics as ethnic whites, akin to Italians and Eastern Europeans. Which would fit the American pattern.
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source: http://www.slate.com/articles/news_..._as_white_how_are_hispanics_assimilating.html

The data provide new evidence consistent with the theory that Hispanics may assimilate as white Americans, like the Italians or Irish, who were not universally considered to be white. It is particularly significant that the shift toward white identification withstood a decade of debate over immigration and the country’s exploding Hispanic population, which might have been expected to inculcate or reinforce a sense of Hispanic identity, or draw attention to divisions that remain between Hispanics and non-Hispanic white Americans.

The data also call into question whether America is destined to become a so-called minority-majority nation, where whites represent a minority of the nation’s population. Those projections assume that Hispanics aren’t white, but if Hispanics ultimately identify as white Americans, then whites will remain the majority for the foreseeable future.
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source: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/...&gwh=429976C8FF1AA1190690B8FC30FFCD25&gwt=pay

Further Reading that disputes arguments of OP:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...ht_be_coming_a_lot_slower_than_you_think.html



 
cawacko said:
Since I'm sitting at home doing nothing because i'm watching my daughter while the wife is out I'll respond, if that is ok.

As a Republican I have the same concerns. It's why I didn't vote for Trump because unlike Reagan who brought people into the Republican Party I believe Trump turns them away. I'm afraid of the long term damage he is doing to the party. I saw first hand what Prop 187 did to Republicans in California (even though a number of Democrats voted for it).

On the other hand the OP says nothing about the Democrats ability to govern. Yes certain groups lean Democratic but to assume they will always vote that way regardless of the job being done (on a national level) is not a given imo.

I asked my buddy who is second or third generation Latino how offensive he found Trump. He said he didn't care but new arrivals do. I'm not articulating this the best but it's the point Grind has made before that as people integrate themselves more as American it's possible they don't vote strictly on their race or ethnicity.

I guess at age 45 I'm old enough to be very cynical politically and having seen books from both the Republican and Democratic side about their coming majorities and seeing them both be wrong I'm not ready to buy into another one of those predictions.
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I appreciate your perspective brother, but start from here .. the economy generally always does better under democrats.

I would suggest that new arrivals aren't yet aware of what they're up against, which may account for why NO non-white demographic in America votes majority republican. None.

What you consider voting on race or ethnicity may be better described as voting on issues. Voting to legislate against police murders of innocent people .. is that voting on race or voting on the issue?

The good news for you is that the demise of the Republican Prty will be good for the Libertarian Party .. until republicans co-opt it.

More importantly, who is judging how well democrats are governing? The point of this thread is that democrats are far better suited to govern an evolving society then the current opposition.
 
Royal Highness said:
you draw a couple of erroneous conclusions.

First, people age, and as they age they become more conservative.
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Lots and lots of old democrats and independents. Getting old doesn't make one a republican .. although it sure seems that way given the huge disconnect between republicans and millennials.

Second, there is nothing inherent about say.. minorities being against low taxes. Lets assume African Americans acheive better racial equality in 20 years, that might lead a great % of African Americans to come over to republicans to want to keep taxes down or have less regulation. Right now they are with democrats because they feel they dont have any other choice. But this could easily change in the future.
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Democrats start national elections with 90% of the black vote already in the bank. Within that 90% are large numbers of affluent black voters who like low taxes, but would never vote for republicans no matter how low their taxes may be.

I agree that in 20 years, republicans could morph back into their former selves as defenders of human and civil rights as they did when they first formed. But they cannot continue to control government with their current make-up NOR ideology.

Third, and more importantly, when we talk about the growing hispanic population it's important to point out that many second generation hispanics identiy with the label "white", and this is something that has been going on for a very long time, and there has been multiple studies and articles written about it. So you can't just assume that with an increase of hispanics means a direct coerlation to the "white" population declining. At one point in history Irish and Italians also weren't considered part of white america.
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That's true, but republicans sure as hell don't treat them as if their white .. which goes back to the point I made about new arrivals.

Trump got 29% of the Hispanic vote. Guess they didn't know what they bought into .. but Trump showed 'em.
 
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" Let's analyze this.
McCain and Romney didn't appeal to the base and they lost. Trump energized the base and he won. Looks like we figured out what the winning formula is." h #9
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An iconoclast can appeal in transition.

But upheaval and transformation is not a viable basis of principle for a political brand.

Trump may have squeaked into the presidency, winning the election while losing the vote.

For that matter, no Republican has entered the white house in the new millennium, by winning the vote.
 
sear said:
An iconoclast can appeal in transition.

But upheaval and transformation is not a viable basis of principle for a political brand.

Trump may have squeaked into the presidency, winning the election while losing the vote.

For that matter, no Republican has entered the white house in the new millennium, by winning the vote.
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Bush in 2004?
 
there can be new racists :) The previous administration taught people that it was ok to make it harder for asians to enter college purely because of the color of their skin.
 
what a dreary way to gain political power....by breeding,, certainly not competitive ideas..
The Dems have nothing (there's your nothing burger)- they rely solely on identity politics..
He has exposed their gross racism and hate of non-white people .. all of them. Republicans were never far from a racist identity, given the make-up of their virtual all-white party, but Trump leaves no doubt about it.
Click to expand...
^ this is what passes for critical thought from these morons..."raycist"...pathetic..
the OP forgot "Trump is Hitler" - fixed it for you. :palm:
 
blackascoal said:
The answer to why Trump's base is still clinging to him is because they have nowhere else to go. For them, this is Custer's Last Stand and they are surrounded by Indians.

Republicans painted themselves into this corner and hastened their doom with the election of Donald Trump. Trump has exposed them in ways that republicans have tried to keep hidden. He has exposed their gross disdain for women .. in the year of rising woman issues and demands. He has even exposed their love and support for a known pedophile.

He has exposed their gross racism and hate of non-white people .. all of them. Republicans were never far from a racist identity, given the make-up of their virtual all-white party, but Trump leaves no doubt about it.

Thus, by their own design, they cannot grow as a party Large majorities on non-whites hate republicans and want nothing to do with them, and much of their base is already old.

Data shows a downward demographic spiral for Republicans

Lost on the party during this, however, would seem to be that they are statistically experiencing the ultimate political “dead cat bounce.”

The term comes from stock markets and refers to a sequence of events where a stock sees a temporary and brief recovery after a severe and prolonged decline, followed by a return to that same decline. The short recovery was really just a mirage as the underlying problems still exist, returning the stock to its initial, inertial free fall.

The key to understanding this phenomenon for the Republican Party is to look at changing U.S. demographics.

Minorities increasingly comprise larger shares of the U.S. population, with Hispanics and African-Americans currently making up 17.6 percent and 13.3 percent of the population, respectively. When accounting for all minorities in the U.S., whites now make up just 61.6 percent of the population.

And that last percentage is shrinking. The U.S. Census Bureau now estimates that by 2044, no race or ethnicity in the U.S. will represent a majority of the population… and that includes whites. This sort of rapidity of a country’s population composition changing seems to be unprecedented.
https://techcrunch.com/2017/02/11/data-shows-a-downward-demographic-spiral-for-republicans/

Grand Old People Party
Republicans are old and getting older. That’s a huge problem for the GOP

As of the end of last year, the primetime median age of Fox News viewers was 68.
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_..._getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html

Consider this .. the majority of white voters in 2016 elected Trump .. and Hillary Clinton still got 3 million more voters then Trump did.

Trump and republicans are only digging the holes deeper. Instead of reaching out to all Americans, they're just too damn busy digging their own graves.

I suspect the Republican Party will be replaced by the Libertarian Party .. while republicans morph into the Whigs.
Click to expand...
You're no spring chicken yourself, now are you?

Sent from my Lenovo K8 using Tapatalk
 
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