Tracking TS Dorian

hey Stretch!

My friend is booking me a room at the Ritz -think it should be Tues and Wed?
I don't think I need Monday either ?
 
dukkha said:
hey Stretch!

My friend is booking me a room at the Ritz -think it should be Tues and Wed?
I don't think I need Monday either ?
Click to expand...

Hey D!
That seems right now to be the 2 days where the Orlando & coast area will be most affected.

Right now I show Dorian's outer bands beginning to show up there by around 10am on Tues.
Looks like she's gone by 7am on Wed.

Here's the thing. Again right now it's a fairly good consensus that she will be hugging the coast
and not coming inland in your area. That will be great if it holds. It means that all the powerful action
will be out in the ocean and much less over land in Orlando.

One way or another this one won't be as powerful over land as Irma was.
I'll feel a lot better when I see a better agreement between the EURO and the GFS (American) tracks. It's
mainly a difference of timing, not so much the track. It has to do with a steering current over the Bahamas.
By Sunday afternoon, if not sooner the picture will be clearer.


I'll keep you posted. :cool:
 
Stretch said:
Hey D!
That seems right now to be the 2 days where the Orlando & coast area will be most affected.

Right now I show Dorian's outer bands beginning to show up there by around 10am on Tues.
Looks like she's gone by 7am on Wed.

Here's the thing. Again right now it's a fairly good consensus that she will be hugging the coast
and not coming inland in your area. That will be great if it holds. It means that all the powerful action
will be out in the ocean and much less over land in Orlando.

One way or another this one won't be as powerful over land as Irma was.
I'll feel a lot better when I see a better agreement between the EURO and the GFS (American) tracks. It's
mainly a difference of timing, not so much the track. It has to do with a steering current over the Bahamas.
By Sunday afternoon, if not sooner the picture will be clearer.


I'll keep you posted. :cool:
Click to expand...
Will the turn North be determined when the high pressure system starts to lessen or break up?
 
Life is Golden said:
Will the turn North be determined when the high pressure system starts to lessen or break up?
Click to expand...

The larger HP system that's been to the N is exerting less pressure on Dorian keeping her
down and/or forcing her across the state to the Gulf.
Dorian will pull N making that turn after leaving the Bahamas.
 
She's actually setting up a wide turn heading WNW and will be heading over the Bahamas.
Steering currents coming from the W, down under the bottom of the state
will help push her N up the E coast.
Lookin' good! Eye still projected to remain offshore! :awesome:
 
Stretch said:
She's actually setting up a wide turn heading WNW and will be heading over the Bahamas.
Steering currents coming from the W, down under the bottom of the state
will help push her N up the E coast.
Lookin' good! Eye still projected to remain offshore! :awesome:
Click to expand...

I never get over confident with these things, though I am encouraged.

Last year Matthew was slowly creeping up the east coast from South Florida, predicted to come on shore around Melbourne as I recall and we were all living in dread. Then it made that little last minute jog to the east and missed us completely.

We barely even got a breezy day out of it.

So now I'm just hoping Dorian will be a copy cat of Matthew.
 
Nomad said:
I never get over confident with these things, though I am encouraged.

Last year Matthew was slowly creeping up the east coast from South Florida, predicted to come on shore around Melbourne as I recall and we were all living in dread. Then it made that little last minute jog to the east and missed us completely.

We barely even got a breezy day out of it.

So now I'm just hoping Dorian will be a copy cat of Matthew.
Click to expand...
It's looking a lot like that right now. Hope it continues!
 
Nomad said:
I never get over confident with these things, though I am encouraged.

Last year Matthew was slowly creeping up the east coast from South Florida, predicted to come on shore around Melbourne as I recall and we were all living in dread. Then it made that little last minute jog to the east and missed us completely.

We barely even got a breezy day out of it.

So now I'm just hoping Dorian will be a copy cat of Matthew.
Click to expand...

Ditto! :thup:
 
Little late night incidentals before turning in.

Dorian presently a Cat 4; pressure dropping to 948mb; max sustained winds @140mph.
The Low will still be in place below the bottom of the state blocking any entrance for her to the Gulf.
Creeping slowly towards Bahamas; time frame remains the same; then shooting up to Cape Canaveral
area by Tuesday evening entering as a Cat 3 is the odds on favorite course.
Should know Sunday night if there would be any deviation to the W up through the state or
further E over open water.

Overall the Consensus model I see on my system with which combines 2 EURO models...
tvcn (EURO)and tvcx (which is sort of a "double helping" of the EURO)
shows Dorian moving up the east coast offshore and then following the path that I outlined already.
back on 8/28 in post #1. :cool:

This would obviously be the best scenario for Florida. By late Sunday night we
should see GFS (American) finally in agreement.
Still, it's the weather, but 99% sure forecast should remain close to the same.
 
Stretch said:
Little late night incidentals before turning in.

Dorian presently a Cat 4; pressure dropping to 948mb; max sustained winds @140mph.
The Low will still be in place below the bottom of the state blocking any entrance for her to the Gulf.
Creeping slowly towards Bahamas; time frame remains the same; then shooting up to Cape Canaveral
area by Tuesday evening entering as a Cat 3 is the odds on favorite course.
Should know Sunday night if there would be any deviation to the W up through the state or
further E over open water.

Overall the Consensus model I see on my system with which combines 2 EURO models...
tvcn (EURO)and tvcx (which is sort of a "double helping" of the EURO)
shows Dorian moving up the east coast offshore and then following the path that I outlined already.
back on 8/28 in post #1. :cool:

This would obviously be the best scenario for Florida. By late Sunday night we
should see GFS (American) finally in agreement.
Still, it's the weather, but 99% sure forecast should remain close to the same.
Click to expand...
You are good!
 
This is just for fun...........
Take a break from all the science stuff and enjoy watching some last minute boaters
going outside for fun and fishing before the storm today. This is Haulover Cut in Miami.
I spent the first 18 years of life boating and beaching there. All the N. Miami kids did.
Haulover Bridge (at mark #9:49) is the bridge we used to jump off of whenever the
mood hit us. :laugh:

No amateurs out there today. They all know how to use trim tabs in rough water. :cool:

 
When it comes to riding with the 45 curse, shit happens as in a act of the forces of nature. Just make sure the Chosen one doesn't try and cash in too much on the taxpayer dime. Its the cursed team tRump's fault!
 
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