Tracking TS Dorian

Stretch said:
On my model "AT PRESENT" for Charleston I see winds in the 60mph range by midnight tonight.
100mph by Thurs. 4am
60mph by Thurs. 8pm

Do they live on high ground?
Do they live in a "stilt" house way above the ground?

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

North of Port Canaveral FL to the North Carolina/Virginia border
Neuse and Pamlico Rivers
Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

The following video is 17 hours old but I want to illustrate something as an example...

MLB_loop.gif


Look at the counterclockwise circulation.
When land is on the western side like this, look how the bands come across the land.
They pull down and AWAY from the shore. In other words the wind would be
whipping around and coming AT Charleston from the N/NE at first and then W
blowing water AWAY from the shore. Make sense?


Picture in your mind if the storm was approaching the area coming N over land
rather than ocean. THEN Charleston would be receiving Dorian's winds from the W side
of the storm which would be sweeping in water from the ocean.
Here is an example of the wind coming IN to the shoreline when a storm (IRMA 2 years ago)
passes on the W side of a coastline...

dd4a88-updraft-files-2017-09-rt0910irmasat2.gif
Click to expand...

You are very bright and knowledgeable.
 
Phantasmal said:
No, I always err on the side of too much caution. I would take my grands and go to a hotel further inland, that’s just me. I’ve always been a worry wart.
Click to expand...

Just be sure they're watching & listening to their local weather channels. No doubt there will
be some storm surge from this Cat 2 storm. Possibility of anywhere from 3 to 8 feet all along
the GA, SC & NC coastline. As she passes N, the back end will push some amounts OUT that were
pushed in the first place. Take into account whenever high tide is, there are bound to be
some flooded roads.......nothing like Harvey in TX.
 
The perplexing thing is how people can see this happen again and again, with increasing occurrences and intensity, and not be moved towards wondering if this is indeed human industrial activity coming back to bite humans.

The NHC is now tracking 5 systems in the Atlantic sphere.

Dorian isn't done, but has already set records.

The strongest storm on record ever to hit the Bahamas.

This came so close to being another Irma event.

The track could have so easily come ashore in Florida and then gone on a rampage up the peninsula.

The unprecedented devastation of Marsh Harbour could be in the USA.

All up to the whims of the winds and steering factors.

I have to wonder what it is going to take to change some of the more stubborn minds.

Fortunately, some are already coming around.

More and more people are now admitting that yes, climate change is real and yes, we need to do whatever we can to reverse it.

For the good of humanity.

For the future.

virtually no young people think it's rubbish. They are going to have to live in the second half of this century. They want full lives with grandchildren too. They are not so ready to gamble with the future of habitability and biodiversity on Earth.
 
PoliTalker said:
The perplexing thing is how people can see this happen again and again, with increasing occurrences and intensity, and not be moved towards wondering if this is indeed human industrial activity coming back to bite humans.

The NHC is now tracking 5 systems in the Atlantic sphere.

Dorian isn't done, but has already set records.

The strongest storm on record ever to hit the Bahamas.

This came so close to being another Irma event.

The track could have so easily come ashore in Florida and then gone on a rampage up the peninsula.

The unprecedented devastation of Marsh Harbour could be in the USA.

All up to the whims of the winds and steering factors.

I have to wonder what it is going to take to change some of the more stubborn minds.

Fortunately, some are already coming around.

More and more people are now admitting that yes, climate change is real and yes, we need to do whatever we can to reverse it.

For the good of humanity.

For the future.

virtually no young people think it's rubbish. They are going to have to live in the second half of this century. They want full lives with grandchildren too. They are not so ready to gamble with the future of habitability and biodiversity on Earth.
Click to expand...

Please don't start this political crappola. Please start a non-scientific thread elsewhere on it. Appreciate it.
Did you predict the elements of timing of a simple hurricane?
Did you cause the path?
Did you cause the seas to rise & fall?
Did you cause the HP & LP level steering currents in the upper atmosphere?
Did you cause the devastating hurricanes for thousands of years prior?
Did you cause the 11 hurricanes in 1887?
Yet your crystal ball can predict the time of the end of the entire planet in 12 years? geeeeesh:palm:
 
Last edited:
Hello Stretch,

Stretch said:
Please don't start this political crappola. Please start a non-scientific thread elsewhere on it. Appreciate it.
Did you predict the elements of timing of a simple hurricane?
Did you cause the path?
Did you cause the seas to rise & fall?
Did you cause the HP & LP level steering currents in the upper atmosphere?
Did you cause the devastating hurricanes of for thousands of years prior?
Did you cause the 11 hurricanes in 1887?
Yet your crystal ball can predict the time of the end of the entire planet in 12 years? geeeeesh:palm:
Click to expand...

I'm not trying to make anybody angry.

I'm just trying to understand how people can see this and not be moved to wonder...

'Maybe they are right.'
 
One aspect researchers are saying is new is the rapid intensification.

Maria went from Tropical Storm to Cat 5 in 54 hours.

Harvey did something every similar.

Dorian did it too.

They are getting super-intense super-quick.

I don't ever remember tracking 5 systems at once.

Florida actually lucked out big time with Irma, in a way, because Cuba took the hit and deintensified it a bit. 20 miles north and it could have been far worse. Like Marsh Harbour.
 
5 Systems being tracked.

So glad to see Gabrielle is taking a northward track.

Who knows about the next one coming off the West coast of Africa right now.

Fernand luckily came ashore in a low population area.

And hopefully the system under observation near Bermuda is well out to see and North of the warmest water.

And of course, right now all eyes are on Dorian.
 
11PM update. Dorian intensifies to Cat 2 / almost Cat 3.

The pressure dropping, the eye became more organized. Stronger winds. Up to 115 now.

One of the big problems for the timing of this storm is that we are experiencing the highest tides in months, the so-called King Tides.

If Dorian comes ashore at a well-populated place at the time of high tide there is going to be a lot of flooding.

The current models are showing landfall in NC or even SC some time Thursday night.
 
High tide along the coast from Charleston to Myrtle Beach is at 1:30PM today, near the estimated time of Dorian's passage by.

This station is streaming live coverage of Dorian's progress along South and North Carolina.

WANE
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Stretch,



I'm not trying to make anybody angry.

I'm just trying to understand how people can see this and not be moved to wonder...

'Maybe they are right.'
Click to expand...

Yes, one wonders why some jerk at JPP would try to politicize a natural catastrophic event.
 
Here is a link to the NWS composite radar for the SE coast.

National Weather Service Radar

You can pan to the right and see the latest position of the storm just off the coast, and the strongest feeder bands of storms as they hit.

Wilmington NC is taking a strong band right now.
 
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