You are probably one third right, but definitely two thirds wrong. The Senate will fail to convict trump, that much is almost certainly correct.
Republicans will NOT even try to "exonerate" trump. Bringing forward the witnesses that could either exonerate, or convict trump would just reinforce that he is guilty in the voters minds. And make no mistake about it, trump is quite guilty.
trump will NOT win in a landslide. he might eke out a win, probably not in the popular vote, but maybe in the Electoral College. There is no way he gets a landslide.
This is going to sound mean, but nobody cares. Not Democrats, not Republicans, nobody. Who cares how long people who will vote for Republicans all the time will remember something. They are going to vote for Republicans whatever the Democrats or Republicans do. They will do that until they die.
What is a concern is what will people in battleground states think. They are overwhelmingly for impeachment, but not necessarily conviction. And there in lies the rub. Republicans have to look like they are taking this seriously, or they will lose all the battleground states. They also must keep this from getting anymore serious than it is, or they will lose all the battleground states.
And then there is the dying thing. Republican voters will be Republican voters until they die... But that is going to happen sooner or later. Republicans are not making good inroads with the younger people.