Deep Level Analysis - Trump is going to lose

BartenderElite said:
That playbook is played. Every Dem candidate in modern times has been portrayed as a socialist/communist.

And Biden is probably the most moderate candidate the Dems have had in modern times.
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You left out the claim of Marxist by people who no more understand Marx than they do quantum physics.
 
Dementia Joe would be told what to say and do, if elected.

Horizontal Kamala would be President in a few weeks.

I believe this was the plan when Horizontal Kamala was selected.
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
The democratic propaganda machine really works on the sheep.

Biden is leading too many polls in too many swing states, and this year we have a much small number of undecided voters which means far less variance than in 2016 with regards to polling.

There are 4 things that still help trump:

1) low educated white voters registration is up astronomically in PA. I believe last I saw it was up 50%, and this group is notoriously unrepresented in polling data. Democrat registration is down in states like florida.

2) General silent trump voter. We dont listen or engage with fake news and thus sampling might be skewed

3) enthusiasm gap. People are more enthusiastic to vote FOR trump and it's clear by just looking at his rallies and how happy trump supporters are to support him.

4) democrats are retards and can't follow simple instructions. They will screw up mail in voting because they can't read or put their vote in the proper envelope. I saw a NYT article recently saying possibly millions of democrat votes may be deemed ineligible. This imo is the most likely scenario and is why democrats are starting to sow the seeds of trump "stealing the election." Trump's total of people that vote in person on election day will be around 60-65% to bidens 30%. The vast majority of biden votes will be by mail. You can see this now with the biden camp freaking out and urging the democrat pussies to go to the polls live now because they know their voters are too dumb to check a box on a piece of paper and mail it in. So this helps trump as well.

Trump still has a very viable chance to win. He's around 25% right now according to nate silver, which is still a very likely outcome. That said, it's not looking good. Thankfully us owning the supreme court for the next 20 years will slow down democrat hegemony. No regrets.

I would love to be wrong about the above though
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The facts are Trump was cruising towards re-election until the Covid-19 outbreak. His mishandling of that has put the economy into both a long and short term recession. In addition his mishandling of protest about police excessive use of force led to nation wide social unrest which has also hurt him politically.

Prior to these two events Trump had most of the political categories running either in his favor or neutral. Democrats didn’t help themselves in the primaries with a slate of uninspiring neo-liberals, social democrats and an uncharismatic moderate (Biden).

Trumps first big fuck up was to poo poo the serious nature of the Covid 19 pandemic compounded by appointing a man uniquely unqualified to lead the national effort. VP Mike Pence. Now here’s a man who utterly rejects the science supporting virology. What could possibly go wrong there? Pence turned it into a complete debacle where State Governors had to take the lead in controlling transmission rates with no unified or centralized Federal response.

So that was two serious political mistakes by Trump. #1. He should have not delegated the initial effort or poo pood the seriousness of the pandemic to avoid creating fear and #2. Compounded that mistake by delegating the initial Federal effort to someone incompetent to deal with the problem.

Now agree with that assessment or not the fact is we have been plunged into a short term recession during his re-election campaign and a long term recession has occurred that will extend beyond the election. Which has hurt him.

Then Trump took a gambit that by responding to political unrest by taking his “law and order” gambit exacerbated the social unrest causing it to become more wide spread. He could had quelled it by taking a reconciliatory approach but he didn’t as he feared it would hurt him with his base. That was a serious miscalculation as widespread social unrest always hurts the political party in power.

So those three political metrics, short term economic, long term economic and social unrest, which had been in his favor through 2019 are now flipped against him.

So in 2019 Trump went from having a majority of the political metrics in his favor to having a majority of the 12 or so most important political metrics against him.

This is distinctly different than in 2016 where Trump was predicted to lose based on the regression analysis of pollsters like Nate Silver. What most people didn’t consider then, including myself, was Trump had a majority of the political metrics in his favor, which explains his upset victory.

2020 is different now because both the regression analysis and the political metrics indicate his losing.

So this time around I don’t think Trump will beat the odds though he still does have around a 25% chance of winning so it’s not impossible that he may win.

So in short I agree with your conclusion that Trump will probably lose. I seriously doubt that the Supreme Court issue or the upcoming debates will have a significant impact on the election.

Particularly the debate. Trump has set the bar so low for Biden by painting him as senile that all Biden has to do to win is show up and speak in complete sentences and Biden would be perceived as the winner. Which would be a big “So What!” as its not going to change anyones mind.

So short term a Biden win will be good for the country as without Putin’s bitch in office and the brand of Redneck populism for mouth breathers it represents we can begin to undue the substantial damage that Trump has done to this nations Democratic institutions.

It doesn’t look like Nov 3 will be a good night for Putin.
 
^ pure fiction.

in short term a Biden win will be good for the country as without Putin’s bitch in office and the brand of Redneck populism for mouth breathers it represents we can begin to undue the substantial damage that Trump has done to this nations Democratic institutions.
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pure lies about Putin -i wish Trump would deal with Putin, instead he put him in a box and sent him to China

Populism ="redneck mouth breathers" ( a deplorable comment)
 
Michael_Panetta said:
I live in PA. In 2016, I saw many, many Trump signs. Now I see almost NONE. I have a few family members who supported Trump last time and are now considering either Biden or staying home on election night.

So don't get too cocky about PA going to Trump again.
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PA will be the most important swing State to Follow on election night and not Ohio or Florida. I’ve seen a crap load of regression analysis on the election and in the scenarios where Trump won PA was the one consistent swing State that he won in all the winning scenarios for Trump. I saw scenarios where Trump lost Ohio or Florida or Michigan or Wisconsin and still won but no scenario in which he lost PA and won.
 
dukkha said:
Everybody Colluded with Russia — Except Trump!
https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/...ngton-was-colluding-with-russia-except-trump/
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LOL You sited Limpballs? ROTFLMAO!!! Do you have “RETARD” tattooed on your forehead? Only uninformed morons of the highest order follow that circus clown. Only the mental epileptics that follow Hannity are dumber. Not even the Neo-Marxist in Harvard’s Humanities department are that stupid. ROTFLMAO

This is the best laugh I’ve had since I went to Yellow Springs to see Dave Chappell! Wahahahaha!
 
Mott the Hoople said:
LOL You sited Limpballs? ROTFLMAO!!! Do you have “RETARD” tattooed on your forehead? Only uninformed morons of the highest order follow that circus clown. Only the mental epileptics that follow Hannity are dumber. Not even the Neo-Marxist in Harvard’s Humanities department are that stupid. ROTFLMAO

This is the best laugh I’ve had since I went to Yellow Springs to see Dave Chappell! Wahahahaha!
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I've always thought it hilarious that Limbaugh was against Trump until he was selected IMPOTUS, then ditched his alleged "conservative principles" and went all in for the orange shitgibbon. Oh, and he totally forgot to move to Costa Rica like he promised if Obama was elected. :laugh:
 
Mott the Hoople said:
The facts are Trump was cruising towards re-election until the Covid-19 outbreak. His mishandling of that has put the economy into both a long and short term recession. In addition his mishandling of protest about police excessive use of force led to nation wide social unrest which has also hurt him politically.

Prior to these two events Trump had most of the political categories running either in his favor or neutral. Democrats didn’t help themselves in the primaries with a slate of uninspiring neo-liberals, social democrats and an uncharismatic moderate (Biden).

Trumps first big fuck up was to poo poo the serious nature of the Covid 19 pandemic compounded by appointing a man uniquely unqualified to lead the national effort. VP Mike Pence. Now here’s a man who utterly rejects the science supporting virology. What could possibly go wrong there? Pence turned it into a complete debacle where State Governors had to take the lead in controlling transmission rates with no unified or centralized Federal response.

So that was two serious political mistakes by Trump. #1. He should have not delegated the initial effort or poo pood the seriousness of the pandemic to avoid creating fear and #2. Compounded that mistake by delegating the initial Federal effort to someone incompetent to deal with the problem.

Now agree with that assessment or not the fact is we have been plunged into a short term recession during his re-election campaign and a long term recession has occurred that will extend beyond the election. Which has hurt him.

Then Trump took a gambit that by responding to political unrest by taking his “law and order” gambit exacerbated the social unrest causing it to become more wide spread. He could had quelled it by taking a reconciliatory approach but he didn’t as he feared it would hurt him with his base. That was a serious miscalculation as widespread social unrest always hurts the political party in power.

So those three political metrics, short term economic, long term economic and social unrest, which had been in his favor through 2019 are now flipped against him.

So in 2019 Trump went from having a majority of the political metrics in his favor to having a majority of the 12 or so most important political metrics against him.

This is distinctly different than in 2016 where Trump was predicted to lose based on the regression analysis of pollsters like Nate Silver. What most people didn’t consider then, including myself, was Trump had a majority of the political metrics in his favor, which explains his upset victory.

2020 is different now because both the regression analysis and the political metrics indicate his losing.

So this time around I don’t think Trump will beat the odds though he still does have around a 25% chance of winning so it’s not impossible that he may win.

So in short I agree with your conclusion that Trump will probably lose. I seriously doubt that the Supreme Court issue or the upcoming debates will have a significant impact on the election.

Particularly the debate. Trump has set the bar so low for Biden by painting him as senile that all Biden has to do to win is show up and speak in complete sentences and Biden would be perceived as the winner. Which would be a big “So What!” as its not going to change anyones mind.

So short term a Biden win will be good for the country as without Putin’s bitch in office and the brand of Redneck populism for mouth breathers it represents we can begin to undue the substantial damage that Trump has done to this nations Democratic institutions.

It doesn’t look like Nov 3 will be a good night for Putin.
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:clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap::clap:
 
Mott the Hoople said:
The facts are Trump was cruising towards re-election until the Covid-19 outbreak. His mishandling of that has put the economy into both a long and short term recession. In addition his mishandling of protest about police excessive use of force led to nation wide social unrest which has also hurt him politically.

Prior to these two events Trump had most of the political categories running either in his favor or neutral. Democrats didn’t help themselves in the primaries with a slate of uninspiring neo-liberals, social democrats and an uncharismatic moderate (Biden).

Trumps first big fuck up was to poo poo the serious nature of the Covid 19 pandemic compounded by appointing a man uniquely unqualified to lead the national effort. VP Mike Pence. Now here’s a man who utterly rejects the science supporting virology. What could possibly go wrong there? Pence turned it into a complete debacle where State Governors had to take the lead in controlling transmission rates with no unified or centralized Federal response.

So that was two serious political mistakes by Trump. #1. He should have not delegated the initial effort or poo pood the seriousness of the pandemic to avoid creating fear and #2. Compounded that mistake by delegating the initial Federal effort to someone incompetent to deal with the problem.

Now agree with that assessment or not the fact is we have been plunged into a short term recession during his re-election campaign and a long term recession has occurred that will extend beyond the election. Which has hurt him.

Then Trump took a gambit that by responding to political unrest by taking his “law and order” gambit exacerbated the social unrest causing it to become more wide spread. He could had quelled it by taking a reconciliatory approach but he didn’t as he feared it would hurt him with his base. That was a serious miscalculation as widespread social unrest always hurts the political party in power.

So those three political metrics, short term economic, long term economic and social unrest, which had been in his favor through 2019 are now flipped against him.

So in 2019 Trump went from having a majority of the political metrics in his favor to having a majority of the 12 or so most important political metrics against him.

This is distinctly different than in 2016 where Trump was predicted to lose based on the regression analysis of pollsters like Nate Silver. What most people didn’t consider then, including myself, was Trump had a majority of the political metrics in his favor, which explains his upset victory.

2020 is different now because both the regression analysis and the political metrics indicate his losing.

So this time around I don’t think Trump will beat the odds though he still does have around a 25% chance of winning so it’s not impossible that he may win.

So in short I agree with your conclusion that Trump will probably lose. I seriously doubt that the Supreme Court issue or the upcoming debates will have a significant impact on the election.

Particularly the debate. Trump has set the bar so low for Biden by painting him as senile that all Biden has to do to win is show up and speak in complete sentences and Biden would be perceived as the winner. Which would be a big “So What!” as its not going to change anyones mind.

So short term a Biden win will be good for the country as without Putin’s bitch in office and the brand of Redneck populism for mouth breathers it represents we can begin to undue the substantial damage that Trump has done to this nations Democratic institutions.

It doesn’t look like Nov 3 will be a good night for Putin.
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I don't see any mention there that China knew about CV-19 in September/October and realised it was a serious problem in November.
I also think that people will finally see just how senile SloJo has become, so write off Trump at your peril. Xi and the Chicoms will be ecstatic if he wins, they'll finally have nobody to stand up to them.

https://www.justplainpolitics.com/s...EP-DOWN-from-presidency&p=3929739#post3929739
 
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This election will not be a landslide for either side. It will be very close and one can rest assured no matter who wins the legal fisticuffs will be fierce. Like 2000 the SCOTUS will have to step in.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
This election will not be a landslide for either side. It will be very close and one can rest assured no matter who wins the legal fisticuffs will be fierce. Like 2000 the SCOTUS will have to step in.
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I would say you were right in March, but he is starting to lose the support of white males. He has lost support in some necessary demographics.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
This election will not be a landslide for either side. It will be very close and one can rest assured no matter who wins the legal fisticuffs will be fierce. Like 2000 the SCOTUS will have to step in.
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The election will not be close and Trump will refuse to leave. He will be forcibly removed by writ of possession then be invited as guest of honor at a firing squad.
 
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