Electoral College Watch Thread

PBS Newshour said last night that Nevada hopes to make a results announcement by 10AM. I presume that would be local time.

They also said the remaining ballots still being counted are primarily in strongly Democratic Las Vegas. Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden said he feels strongly that he will emerge as the winner.
 
Trump's lead in GA has shrunk to 0.4% with 98% of the expected vote counted.

Trump has 49.6%.

Biden has 49.2%.
 
Trump's lead in NC has widened to 1.4%, still with 94% of the expected vote counted.

Trump 50.1%

Biden 48.7%
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Dutch Uncle,



I am fine with people disagreeing with my views. That is what America is all about. The thing that really speaks is the hatred. That lets me know that people who oppose my views are not thinking clearly, and are driven by emotions instead of logic.

In the past I have proudly displayed bumper stickers showing my support for popular figures. I won't do that anymore. I now consider that too dangerous. There is just too much hatred out there now.
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There is a lot of hatred now. Can't even wear my MAGA hat at McDonald's without fear of being attacked. ;)
 
PoliTalker said:
Trump's lead in Pennsylvania has shrunk to 2.6% with 89% of the expected vote counted.
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The higher the percentage of counted votes, the less likely chance of a major shift in lead. My guess is Trump will take Pennsylvania.
 
Hello Dutch Uncle,

Dutch Uncle said:
The higher the percentage of counted votes, the less likely chance of a major shift in lead. My guess is Trump will take Pennsylvania.
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True, and it kind of looks that way, but it ain't over. The remaining ballots being counted are mail-ins which have favored Biden. If Trump does prevail I would expect it to be by a very narrow margin.

A narrow margin is to be expected either way in Pennsylvania. Quite the diversified mix there.
 
Hello Dutch Uncle,

Dutch Uncle said:
Add North Carolina to Trump's count.
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I would tend to agree with that. I don't see much hope for Biden left there. But some hope remains until AP calls it. AP has not called it, yet, so nothing is certain. I appreciate that they want to protect their credibility and not make the call until they are convinced the losing candidate has no chance of prevailing.
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Dutch Uncle,



True, and it kind of looks that way, but it ain't over. The remaining ballots being counted are mail-ins which have favored Biden. If Trump does prevail I would expect it to be by a very narrow margin.

A narrow margin is to be expected either way in Pennsylvania. Quite the diversified mix there.
Click to expand...

Everything is dependent on how much of the vote is left to count. Right now, for every 100K votes left out there, Biden is cutting 55-60K off of Trumps lead. If there are say, 300,000 votes left to count, Biden will win. I think there are a lot more out there than that, so I would actually expect Biden to win Pennsylvania by a pretty wide margin. I think Trump wins NC, and Biden ends up squeaking out a win in GA and in AZ. Of those four, I think Pennsylvania will end up being the most decisive win, and it will go to Biden. That's what the math says. And so far, that math has held up.
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Dutch Uncle,

Why would you even wear one of those anyway? I thought you were not a Trump supporter.
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Why not?....as long as I don't mind being harassed and beaten by LW nutjobs. That's the point - being attacked, not my choice of fashion wear.

Do you agree that, in LW strongholds, that even if it was Halloween, if I walked around wearing a MAGA hat, that I would risk being assaulted?
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Dutch Uncle,

I would tend to agree with that. I don't see much hope for Biden left there. But some hope remains until AP calls it. AP has not called it, yet, so nothing is certain. I appreciate that they want to protect their credibility and not make the call until they are convinced the losing candidate has no chance of prevailing.
Click to expand...

They should follow SOP. I'd rather they are accurate than fast.
 
Hello Concart,

Concart said:
Everything is dependent on how much of the vote is left to count. Right now, for every 100K votes left out there, Biden is cutting 55-60K off of Trumps lead. If there are say, 300,000 votes left to count, Biden will win. I think there are a lot more out there than that, so I would actually expect Biden to win Pennsylvania by a pretty wide margin. I think Trump wins NC, and Biden ends up squeaking out a win in GA and in AZ. Of those four, I think Pennsylvania will end up being the most decisive win, and it will go to Biden. That's what the math says. And so far, that math has held up.
Click to expand...

Awesome! That sounds great. Very analytical. I like numbers. I hope you're right.
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Concart,



Awesome! That sounds great. Very analytical. I like numbers. I hope you're right.
Click to expand...

Here's a great site for monitoring this. It shows Trump with a lead of about 180K. If you do the math to figure out the remaining vote, there are about 500,000 votes left, the bulk of them in blue areas (Philadelphia County has a ton of outstanding ballots, and they are already 80% Biden). I said yesterday morning that this wouldn't be close. The math was just completely against Trump.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-pennsylvania.html
 
Hello Dutch Uncle,

Dutch Uncle said:
Why not?....as long as I don't mind being harassed and beaten by LW nutjobs. That's the point - being attacked, not my choice of fashion wear.

Do you agree that, in LW strongholds, that even if it was Halloween, if I walked around wearing a MAGA hat, that I would risk being assaulted?
Click to expand...

I think liberals are more accepting of varying attitudes than conservatives.

One Trump supporter to another: 'Right on. I completely agree with you. Anybody who doesn't is a threat!'

One Biden supporter to another: 'We agree on some things, but let's talk about our differences.'
 
PoliTalker said:
Hello Dutch Uncle,



I think liberals are more accepting of varying attitudes than conservatives.

One Trump supporter to another: 'Right on. I completely agree with you. Anybody who doesn't is a threat!'

One Biden supporter to another: 'We agree on some things, but let's talk about our differences.'
Click to expand...

I think this is a sliding scale, with the far ends being much less willing to engage in meaningful dialogue. The difference between the two sides is that that the right skews FAR right, and the left does not. Where you would expect a bell shaped curve, you get a huge hump at the far right of the scale.
 
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