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Popular vote watch
- Thread starter Cypress
- Start date
BartenderElite
Verified User
Those much-maligned national polls are looking more & more accurate....
Those much-maligned national polls are looking more & more accurate....
Biden is currently at +4.3%, and it may go up from there.
That puts it within the margin of error (MOE) of the last RCP national polling average of Biden +7.2%. Assuming an MOE of 3% at the 95th percentile of statistical significance. That is acceptably good statistical performance.
Some of the National polls were wildly off. NBC/WSJ had Biden at +10%.
But that is why we take composite averages of a range of national polls.
But other national polls nailed it, putting Biden in the range of +4% to +7%. That is perfectly good statistical performance.
No reputable polls had Trump winning.
Cumulative Sum
Biden - 81,283,495 votes
Trump - 74,223,755 votes
Difference
Biden wins by 7.06 million votes
Proportion
Biden 51.4%
Trump 46.9%
-- Biden wins by 4.5% --
According to my calculations, the Republican party has only won the presidential popular vote one single time since the 1980s
And they have not consistently been able to win the popular vote since the mid to late 20th century.
Cumulative Sum
Biden - 81,283,495 votes
Trump - 74,223,755 votes
Difference
Biden wins by 7.06 million votes
Proportion
Biden 51.4%
Trump 46.9%
-- Biden wins by 4.5% --
Trump knew he lost, but he still plotted to overturn the election.
It does not get much more fascist than that.