A long, hot summer of pain is nearly upon you

Into the Night said:
Attempted force of negative proof fallacy. Burden fallacy.
I can go to any auto parts store, Walmart, Targert, Meynards, Home Depot, Lowes, Fred Meyer, etc. and find shelves fully stocked with motor oil.
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You made the assertion and present no credible evidence. Anecdotes are unverifiable. That places the burden upon you.
 
مرگ بر آمریکا said:
You made the assertion and present no credible evidence. Anecdotes are unverifiable. That places the burden upon you.
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HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

You just choose to ignore that any auto parts store, hardware store, sundry department store, has shelves full of motor oil.

There is no shortage.

Burden fallacy. Argument of the Stone fallacy.
 
Into the Night said:
You are not in Iran, Zombie.
Iran currently has no internet access.
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Laughable.

There is a motor oil supply crunch underway as of May 2026, particularly for synthetic and low-viscosity grades (such as 0W-20, 0W-16, and 0W-8) that dominate modern engines. Wholesale prices have surged, supplies are being allocated or rationed by manufacturers and retailers, and industry leaders are warning of shortages that could affect consumers this summer and persist into 2027.


The issue centers on Group III base oils (and related Group II/III stocks), the primary feedstock for most full-synthetic and synthetic-blend motor oils. Roughly 44% of U.S. Group III supply historically came from just a few Persian Gulf producers. Recent Middle East disruptions—including attacks on energy infrastructure (e.g., Shell’s Pearl GTL plant in Qatar, a major global Group III source), missile strikes on other facilities, and severe restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—have knocked out significant production capacity.


Key facts from industry and news reporting in the past week (mid-May 2026):
  • The Independent Lubricant Manufacturers Association (ILMA) has issued urgent bulletins describing a “global base oil supply crisis” and the “largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America.” They project average available supply dropping by ~40%, with U.S. stocks of key Middle East-origin Group III base oil expected to run out by June 2026. Prices for Group III have hit historic highs (> $10/gallon).
  • ILMA CEO Holly Alfano told CNN: “We’re looking at shortages—I have no doubt in my mind.” Low-viscosity synthetics used in most new vehicles are hit hardest.
  • Automakers (Toyota, Nissan) and retailers (e.g., leaked AutoZone memos) have warned service departments of allocation limits, reduced production, and the need to substitute grades or ration stock. Some reports note finished-lube shortages could become widespread by July–August if disruptions continue.


  • Analysts (ICIS, Argus, etc.) expect the market to remain undersupplied through at least mid-2027; recovery depends on resolving the geopolitical issues.

    axios.com
This is distinct from (but related to) broader crude oil market pressures. Conventional motor oils or older Group I stocks may be less affected in the very short term, and some retailers still have inventory on shelves right now—but the supply chain warnings are explicit and widespread. “Plenty” does not describe the current situation according to the lubricant industry’s own trade group and major market participants.

The forum post from “Into the Night” appears to deny any crunch, but it contradicts the documented evidence from ILMA, automakers, and major outlets like CNN, Axios, Bloomberg, and Reuters. Geopolitical events can change quickly, but right now the data show a real and growing motor oil supply problem, not abundance.
 
Into the Night said:
No recession nor economic depression was caused by OPEC.
It was caused by government price controls on gasoline. A DEMOCRAT did it (Jimmy Carter).


What war? Iran never produced anywhere close to 13 million barrels of oil per day. The world currently produces approx 84.5 billion barrels of oil/day, About a third of that is from the US.

Iran is a small player, at their peak, producing about 4 billion (about 4.7%). Today, Iran produces ZERO, their currency has collapsed, they have no airforce or navy, they can't even pay their troops except with worthless money, and their bridges and steel industries and some power plants are dead.

Iran has already lost.

Oil prices are currently moving downward, Zombie.

Food is very cheap in the United States. They practically give bread away. The United States literally feeds the world.


There is no fertilizer shortage.

They are down considerably. The current US interest rate is 3.64 (source: Federal Reserve)

No. They it is basically flat. The current rate is 4.84. (source: US10YR)

No, Zombie. Trump has defeated Iran.


Nope. No peace for you. You live in your own hatred and your own prison of your own making.
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Lies. Denial.
 
مرگ بر آمریکا said:
Laughable.

There is a motor oil supply crunch underway as of May 2026, particularly for synthetic and low-viscosity grades (such as 0W-20, 0W-16, and 0W-8) that dominate modern engines. Wholesale prices have surged, supplies are being allocated or rationed by manufacturers and retailers, and industry leaders are warning of shortages that could affect consumers this summer and persist into 2027.

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Nope. CNN is fear mongering again. Shelves are full in any store you want to walk into.
مرگ بر آمریکا said:
The issue centers on Group III base oils (and related Group II/III stocks), the primary feedstock for most full-synthetic and synthetic-blend motor oils. Roughly 44% of U.S. Group III supply historically came from just a few Persian Gulf producers. Recent Middle East disruptions—including attacks on energy infrastructure (e.g., Shell’s Pearl GTL plant in Qatar, a major global Group III source), missile strikes on other facilities, and severe restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz—have knocked out significant production capacity.
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Iran does not produce motor oil.
مرگ بر آمریکا said:
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More propaganda fear mongering. There is no shortage.
مرگ بر آمریکا said:
...deleted AI slop...
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AI is not God, Zombie. You can't use it as a brain.
 
Into the Night said:
Illegal immigration is a crime, Zombie.
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Look at the Islamic script used for the OP posters avatar name and the by-line.

Copy and paste them into google translate.

The name translates as "Death to America". The By-Line translates as "Iranian Republican Guard Corp".

You are debating with a person who is calling for your murder, the destruction of the U.S., and of a nation our nation is at war with. Weather you agree with that war or not, it is the duty of all U.S. citizens to not aid the enemy during WAR.

No Loyal American on this forum should be discussing anything with the OP. He is promising to Murder U.S.!

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Kurmugeon said:
Look at the Islamic script used for the OP posters avatar name and the by-line.

Copy and paste them into google translate.

The name translates as "Death to America". The By-Line translates as "Iranian Republican Guard Corp".

You are debating with a person who is calling for your murder, the destruction of the U.S., and of a nation our nation is at war with. Weather you agree with that war or not, it is the duty of all U.S. citizens to not aid the enemy during WAR.

No Loyal American on this forum should be discussing anything with the OP. He is promising to Murder U.S.!

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He is not in Iran. He is in the SDTC (California). He is pretending to be in Iran. He's a fake. It's a sock (one of two, possibly three accounts).

You are correct in that he is calling for civil war against citizens of the United States, an act of treason.
You are correct in that he wants to support brutal dictatorships and terrorists.

He depends on AI slop as well. He spends his life cut and pasting, including cut and pasting AI slop.
He has no mind of his own.

He desires no discussion. He simply wants to preach his hate. JPP has no debates, only conversations or preaching.

I just point it out, and point out his inability to think or reason. His is a religion of hate.
 
Into the Night said:
He is not in Iran. He is in the SDTC (California). He is pretending to be in Iran. He's a fake. It's a sock (one of two, possibly three accounts).

You are correct in that he is calling for civil war against citizens of the United States, an act of treason.
You are correct in that he wants to support brutal dictatorships and terrorists.

He depends on AI slop as well. He spends his life cut and pasting, including cut and pasting AI slop.
He has no mind of his own.

He desires no discussion. He simply wants to preach his hate. JPP has no debates, only conversations or preaching.

I just point it out, and point out his inability to think or reason. His is a religion of hate.
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Well, just because he is on U.S. Soil, does not mean that THEY are a team who was born in Iran, and came in during the Biden, or even the Obama Administrations. They may be living in Government provided housing, and have food, clothes, cell phones, and internet provide at our tax payer expense!

I agree that given the 24/7 responses, it is most likely a team. Given some of their bad grammar, they are clearly not native English speakers.

Given the openly violent and propaganda nature of their threads, it would surprise me if they are not a real IRGC psyop unit.

But, if you want to give them the benefit of the doubt, okay. I think the DHS and FBI should pay them a visit.

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Kurmugeon said:
Well, just because he is on U.S. Soil, does not mean that THEY are a team who was born in Iran, and came in during the Biden, or even the Obama Administrations. They may be living in Government provided housing, and have food, clothes, cell phones, and internet provide at our tax payer expense!

I agree that given the 24/7 responses, it is most likely a team. Given some of their bad grammar, they are clearly not native English speakers.

Given the openly violent and propaganda nature of their threads, it would surprise me if they are not a real IRGC psyop unit.

But, if you want to give them the benefit of the doubt, okay. I think the DHS and FBI should pay them a visit.

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Laughable.
 
Kurmugeon said:
Well, just because he is on U.S. Soil, does not mean that THEY are a team who was born in Iran, and came in during the Biden, or even the Obama Administrations. They may be living in Government provided housing, and have food, clothes, cell phones, and internet provide at our tax payer expense!
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He never came from Iran. He's a spoiled brat that think's he's supporting 'the good guys'. He is just a hate filled likely some privileged snot in college.
Kurmugeon said:
I agree that given the 24/7 responses, it is most likely a team. Given some of their bad grammar, they are clearly not native English speakers.
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He was born in the U.S.

Just like other Democrats rioting and looting in the streets, supporting organized crime, harboring illegal aliens, etc.
Spoiled snots that hate the nation they were born into.
Kurmugeon said:
Given the openly violent and propaganda nature of their threads, it would surprise me if they are not a real IRGC psyop unit.
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Nah. He's too dumb for that! A psyop unit wouldn't be using AI slop to justify his hate, or even be posting on a forum such as JPP.
Kurmugeon said:
But, if you want to give them the benefit of the doubt, okay. I think the DHS and FBI should pay them a visit.
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Eventually, they probably will, or at least local cops will. More than likely he will fight some law enforcement officer and wind up getting shot.

Or...should he and his ilk successfully start civil war, he'll just get shot.
Or...if he walks into certain bars and starts spewing this hate, he might easily just get damaged.
 
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