Kevin Warsh in a pickle.

[Jarod]

I am not an expert, but I'll share what I know. There are of course two mandates for the Fed with inflation and employment.

'Hawks' are often more vigilant about fighting inflation and not wanting to lower rates too soon. 'Doves' often look at what rates do for employment, so they believe being too restrictive with rates (keeping them higher to fight inflation) can hurt the job market/economy.

Politically speaking there are hawks and doves on both the right and left. It may be for different reasons but for example, both Trump and Elizabeth Warren have called for lowering rates in recent times.

As I understand it, the recent spike in oil prices have made the argument for lowering rates much more difficult.

Sounds right to me. Lets see what happens, I doubt they will lower them and they might raise them.

 

[Cypress]

Its clear by almost any economic marker that the Fed needs to raise interest rates in the near future. He got the Job by kissing The PP's ass and the PP has been demanding that they lower them....

Going to be very interesting.

Cult members always do what's in Trump's best interests, not the nation's.

 

[cawacko]

Cult members always do what's in Trump's best interests, not the nation's.

So anyone who says the economic data supports a rate cut at this point is a cultist who doesn't care about the nation?

 

[Cypress]

So anyone who says the economic data supports a rate cut at this point is a cultist who doesn't care about the nation?

Any motherfucker like you who does Trump's bidding is a cultist.

Motherfucker, you've been around long enough to see which members of your party do Trump's bidding

 

[cawacko]

Any motherfucker like you who does Trump's bidding is a cultist.

Motherfucker, you've been around long enough to see which members of your party do Trump's bidding

There are people who follow the Fed and monetary policy for a living as trillions of dollars move based on interest rates and economic data. Even with the recent oil spike, there are still some economists and market participants who argue the data supports cuts.

Your position seems to be that anyone holding that view is just a motherfucker and a cultist. To each his own I suppose.

 

[Cypress]

There are people who follow the Fed and monetary policy for a living as trillions of dollars move based on interest rates and economic data. Even with the recent oil spike, there are still some economists and market participants who argue the data supports cuts.

Your position seems to be that anyone holding that view is just a motherfucker and a cultist. To each his own I suppose.

My position is that any bitch who spreads and supports innuendo and slander which is later proven to be bogus and false, but then they never repent or express remorse is a mother fucker and a moral failure

 

[Walt]

The writing is already on the wall. It's just a matter of time Trump or no Trump.

And yet, we are doing well when trump is not in power?

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

Trump is now in charge of the Fed. He will determine the interest rates. Powell fought back. I am sure Warsh got the job by ceding his power to Trump. Highly trained and experienced economists will not be permitted to stand up to Trump. Trump has taken over many agencies. Now he has this one.

The Fed holds the financial lives of millions of people in their hands. Why do we allow a multi-bankrupt business failure to choose a competent person for that job?

 

[AMERICA FIRST]

And yet, we are doing well when trump is not in power?

We have not been doing well in quite some time. Interest on the debt will crush us just like it does to similarly undisciplined families all over America. Honestly our government represents us very accurately and we will get what we deserve for our decadence in the end.

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

I'm not so sure the Fed board will bow to Trump when it's so clear rates going down soon might tip the US into massive fiscal problems.

Those on the Fed will be listening also to their Wall Street benefactors who should see the danger and not cede to Trump.

That seems to be the WS thinking right now. It is around here.

 

[QP!]

That seems to be the WS thinking right now. It is around here.

Ya, i think Kevin Warsh will be under immense pressure from Trump.

But i also think he will not want to sacrifice the US economy to appease him and his allegiance to WS and what they will be whispering to him will be strong.

What i could see happening (hope) is that with Jerome Powell staying on the Fed Board, and Kevin being just one vote, they can create a situation where Kevin gets to pretend he is pushing for what Trump wants but allowing Jerome to always gather enough votes to, out vote team Kevin. So he can say to Trump, 'I am trying but i am only one vote'.

We know Jerome is ok taking the Trump heat and at this point i actually think he is taking some enjoyment of sticking his finger in Trump's eye.

 

[cawacko]

Ya, i think Kevin Warsh will be under immense pressure from Trump.

But i also think he will not want to sacrifice the US economy to appease him and his allegiance to WS and what they will be whispering to him will be strong.

What i could see happening (hope) is that with Jerome Powell staying on the Fed Board, and Kevin being just one vote, they can create a situation where Kevin gets to pretend he is pushing for what Trump wants but allowing Jerome to always gather enough votes to, out vote team Kevin. So he can say to Trump, 'I am trying but i am only one vote'.

We know Jerome is ok taking the Trump heat and at this point i actually think he is taking some enjoyment of sticking his finger in Trump's eye.

As a Fed watcher this discussion is interesting to me because it's not really about how the Fed works, it's about political psychology and if the Fed was run with our normal political partisan mindset (though it really isn't).

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

Ya, i think Kevin Warsh will be under immense pressure from Trump.

But i also think he will not want to sacrifice the US economy to appease him and his allegiance to WS and what they will be whispering to him will be strong.

What i could see happening (hope) is that with Jerome Powell staying on the Fed Board, and Kevin being just one vote, they can create a situation where Kevin gets to pretend he is pushing for what Trump wants but allowing Jerome to always gather enough votes to, out vote team Kevin. So he can say to Trump, 'I am trying but i am only one vote'.

We know Jerome is ok taking the Trump heat and at this point i actually think he is taking some enjoyment of sticking his finger in Trump's eye.

Great analysis, thanks. It appears Wall Street agrees. The markets had a good day yesterday and our investment account is up $150K for the year to date, not bad! Hopefully the #MangoMoron is fixated on his stupid redneck cage match crap and won't open his yap and crash the markets -- again.

 

[ThatOwlWoman]

As a Fed watcher this discussion is interesting to me because it's not really about how the Fed works, it's about political psychology and if the Fed was run with our normal political partisan mindset (though it really isn't).

It boggles the mind to think that someone who allegedly has a business degree can't understand the purpose of the Fed regulating interest rates and how it affects inflation and the economy. All the Idiot-in-Chief cares about is being able to brag that interest rates are lower during his tenure than they were during Biden's or Obama's.

 

[cawacko]

It boggles the mind to think that someone who allegedly has a business degree can't understand the purpose of the Fed regulating interest rates and how it affects inflation and the economy. All the Idiot-in-Chief cares about is being able to brag that interest rates are lower during his tenure than they were during Biden's or Obama's.

I'm not aware of any Presidents bragging about interest rates. They brag about the economy, but not rates.

Presidents like low rates because they give the economy a sugar high. Lower rates can stimulate growth and all that come with it. That's universal, which is why there isn't Team Red and Team Blue when it comes to monetary policy.

Elizabeth Warren for example has been a vocal proponent of lower rates arguing higher rates hurts employment and growth, which she says hurts minorities and vulnerable communities the most.

If there were no downsides to low rates we would leave them there forever, but of course that isn't the case.

Sorry for being long winded, but that's why the Fed and monetary policy doesn't fall neatly along partisan lines. There isn't a whip or majority leader in the Fed trying to round up team votes like in Congress. People are trying to make it an apples to apples comparison and that just isn't' the case.