Will AI lead to a basic minimum wage?

Jarod said:
I think you are possibly correct. I do think the AI revolution is a little different as it targets human thinking.

The Industrial Revolution put people a lot of skilled labor out of work, and a lot of unskilled labor for that matter. Those people were able to get a job in a factory, or as a cashier.

But where does a stock broker get a comparably paying job? This is why I believe AI revolution may have different results than all of the other revolutions in technology.

Nonetheless, it’s an interesting thought exercise. My question was if, not when.
Click to expand...
Sure, there will be disruption no doubt. There will be jobs lost.

I spoke about CRE. I was a numbers monkey early in my career. 60 hours a week on Excel running acquisition models. AI can do that work in minutes now.

One of my best friends is a partner at a big SF law firm. He's spoken about how AI has changed the role of young Associates and how AI can do the work associates used to take days to do.

Many industries will go through this.

At the same time, new idustries will be created as well. My daughter's science teacher told the class something like 70% of the jobs that will be available when she's grown haven't been created yet. We only think of what may be lost, not necessarily what will be created.
 
Jarod said:
I think you are possibly correct. I do think the AI revolution is a little different as it targets human thinking.

The Industrial Revolution put people a lot of skilled labor out of work, and a lot of unskilled labor for that matter. Those people were able to get a job in a factory, or as a cashier.

But where does a stock broker get a comparably paying job? This is why I believe AI revolution may have different results than all of the other revolutions in technology.

Nonetheless, it’s an interesting thought exercise. My question was if, not when.
Click to expand...
Since you've expressed interest in the Bay Area, I'll share an example of what AI is doing to our real estate market.

A house my sister lived in a decade ago just came on the market. It's good sized at 3,300 SF, but it's nothing special.

Asking was $2.9m. Sold within a week for $4.2m. And yes, the buyer had AI money.

They're playing a different game.
 
cawacko said:
Sure, there will be disruption no doubt. There will be jobs lost.

I spoke about CRE. I was a numbers monkey early in my career. 60 hours a week on Excel running acquisition models. AI can do that work in minutes now.

One of my best friends is a partner at a big SF law firm. He's spoken about how AI has changed the role of young Associates and how AI can do the work associates used to take days to do.

Many industries will go through this.

At the same time, new idustries will be created as well. My daughter's science teacher told the class something like 70% of the jobs that will be available when she's grown haven't been created yet. We only think of what may be lost, not necessarily what will be created.
Click to expand...
I have seen it in law already. Those 60 hours a week jobs are in jeopardy, because a lot of it was research and writing. As a 26 year attorney who has never had an associates, the research part is so much easier, and I generally let AI do my first drafts. I do not know what you call it, but an AI Architect will not have trouble, and I think they will need professionals from specific fields to help with that.

Call centers are already being replaced, and lots of Customer Support centers. I am not worried because I am already in my 50's and would like to retire soon. But think of delivery men, and long haul truckers, data entry, bookkeeping, basic accounting, court reporters, software developers, market research, data analysts. Some of these categories are already being wiped out.

One interesting component is that for the first time it will be the White Collar workers who are going to suffer the most.
 
cawacko said:
Since you've expressed interest in the Bay Area, I'll share an example of what AI is doing to our real estate market.

A house my sister lived in a decade ago just came on the market. It's good sized at 3,300 SF, but it's nothing special.

Asking was $2.9m. Sold within a week for $4.2m. And yes, the buyer had AI money.

They're playing a different game.
Click to expand...
That is another issue, the ownership of these companies will become uber wealthy and powerful. Imagine when IA is able to predict what will affect people and how to play with their emotions. Advertising already does this, but its going to be huge in so many fields. Trial Lawyers are very worried about it, because whoever has the best algorithm is likely to be able to bias the jury without them even realizing they were manipulated. Imagine what our politics will turn into.

AI: Slip in where you went to college, Juror 6 is very biased toward that school. Juror 8 has an authoritarian personality, act tough. Juror 4 had a tough divorce, she is vulnerable.
 
Jarod said:
I have seen it in law already. Those 60 hours a week jobs are in jeopardy, because a lot of it was research and writing. As a 26 year attorney who has never had an associates, the research part is so much easier, and I generally let AI do my first drafts. I do not know what you call it, but an AI Architect will not have trouble, and I think they will need professionals from specific fields to help with that.

Call centers are already being replaced, and lots of Customer Support centers. I am not worried because I am already in my 50's and would like to retire soon. But think of delivery men, and long haul truckers, data entry, bookkeeping, basic accounting, court reporters, software developers, market research, data analysts. Some of these categories are already being wiped out.

One interesting component is that for the first time it will be the White Collar workers who are going to suffer the most.
Click to expand...
For some reason travel agents came to mind. The internet killed most of those jobs. But new jobs were created working for the online travel sites. And some travel agents moved into the luxury travel market where interacting with a human was still desired.

AI is great at doing tasks, and if a person's job is very task driven it could be at a higher risk of changing or being eliminated.

Maybe this line is just cliche now but a couple of years ago the head of my daughter's school spoke about a national education conference he went to in D.C.. A teacher asked the presenter "will AI take my job?" And the speaker respond "no, but a teacher who understands AI will".

I've heard people push back on that phrase, but it does make sense. Jobs will change and we have to be able to change with it.
 
Jarod said:
That is another issue, the ownership of these companies will become uber wealthy and powerful. Imagine when IA is able to predict what will affect people and how to play with their emotions. Advertising already does this, but its going to be huge in so many fields. Trial Lawyers are very worried about it, because whoever has the best algorithm is likely to be able to bias the jury without them even realizing they were manipulated. Imagine what our politics will turn into.

AI: Slip in where you went to college, Juror 6 is very biased toward that school. Juror 8 has an authoritarian personality, act tough. Juror 4 had a tough divorce, she is vulnerable.
Click to expand...
I love reading history and if I'm not mistaken, there were huge concerns when radio and television appeared because they thought it would manipulate public opinion.

So concerns about AI in that regard certainly aren't new. It doesn't mean all concerns about AI are unfounded however. I know I've seen plenty of memes on social media, whether its about sports or politics, that are fake that people pass off thinking they are real. That's concerning for sure.
 
cawacko said:
For some reason travel agents came to mind. The internet killed most of those jobs. But new jobs were created working for the online travel sites. And some travel agents moved into the luxury travel market where interacting with a human was still desired.

AI is great at doing tasks, and if a person's job is very task driven it could be at a higher risk of changing or being eliminated.

Maybe this line is just cliche now but a couple of years ago the head of my daughter's school spoke about a national education conference he went to in D.C.. A teacher asked the presenter "will AI take my job?" And the speaker respond "no, but a teacher who understands AI will".

I've heard people push back on that phrase, but it does make sense. Jobs will change and we have to be able to change with it.
Click to expand...
I hope your optimism is correct, I think it likely is.
 
cawacko said:
I love reading history and if I'm not mistaken, there were huge concerns when radio and television appeared because they thought it would manipulate public opinion.

So concerns about AI in that regard certainly aren't new. It doesn't mean all concerns about AI are unfounded however. I know I've seen plenty of memes on social media, whether its about sports or politics, that are fake that people pass off thinking they are real. That's concerning for sure.
Click to expand...
Television did/does manipulate opinion.
 
Jarod said:
I hope your optimism is correct, I think it likely is.
Click to expand...
You can find very smart people who are making the doom and gloom argument about AI, and I certainly can't sit here and guarantee they're wrong.

But yes, I hope my opinion is correct as well.
 
Jarod said:
If it’s true that AI will put millions out of a job…

Assuming that is true…. What will happen to them? How will they live or eat?

Ideas?
Click to expand...
i find it amusing that i have seen both Elon Musk and a few other tech Oligarchs speak of this, on various interviews, saying government will need to impose some form of Universal Basic Income. They acknowledge that those who create and control AI will have almost all the wealth and the rest of society must be allocated some wealth via UBI to keep the economy afloat as society requires people who can buy things. I have seen Elon, many times speak on this.

I have never seen the reporters on these shows then do the OBVIOUS follow up question which is to ask Elon, at what level of wealth would you support the government imposed UBI, since you have not been in favor of paying higher taxes now despite you having more wealth then you could spend in over 100 lifetimes? So why do you think your view would change later and at what level of wealth would you support it and not fight it?
 
tigerred59 said:
All the great minds are warning the US and other nations, that AI is a dangerous tool to embrace and yet, the US is moving at a speed pace to bring AI to every corner of the nation with these Data Centers popping up every where. Just like we ignored the global warming warnings of the past, this too will become yet another moment in our history where we failed to listen. Company that use AI will find no one left to pay the bills or buy their products because all will be unemployed or on some form of welfare. But you can not penetrate the greed of Jews and gentiles when it comes to money money money and mo money.
Click to expand...
Nothing about AI cancels capitalism, Red.
 
Tbird19482 said:
Well like Henry Ford said over a hundred years ago, I need to pay my workers enough money so they can buy my product.
If my workers can't afford to buy it then who will.
And if you have no workers earning money then you won't be able to sell your product, and AI doesn't buy a dang thing.
Click to expand...
AI can be configured to buy stuff.
The Alexa service already provides this. So does GoogleAI.
 
Tbird19482 said:
Well like Henry Ford said over a hundred years ago, I need to pay my workers enough money so they can buy my product.
If my workers can't afford to buy it then who will.
And if you have no workers earning money then you won't be able to sell your product, and AI doesn't buy a dang thing.
Click to expand...
So what car do you drive?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top