Dozens drown, schools close, heat records set to be annihilated: Europe has a major heat problem and it’s only getting worse

Guno צְבִי

Guno צְבִי

We fight, We win, Am Yisrael Chai
Relentless, deadly heat is tightening its grip on Europe, with temperature records expected to not just fall but be obliterated this week. Scientists warn this extreme heat is a huge problem for Europe and a wake up call to a new reality.

Europe is the planet’s fastest-warming continent, heating at around two to three times the global average, yet it’s woefully underprepared. Its infrastructure was not built for extreme heat; when temperatures spike, rail tracks buckle, power cables break, homes turn into heat traps, and thousands die.

This week is yet another brutal reminder that European heat is becoming both more severe and more frequent. It marks the second record-breaking heat wave in two straight months, with the potential for national all-time temperature records to be broken before Europe even reaches July, typically its hottest month.

“This isn’t the new norm at all; this is the foothills of absolute catastrophe,” said Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care medicine at University College London.

The heat has quickly turned deadly. France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced Tuesday that 40 people had drowned since June 18, linking the drownings to soaring temperatures and calling them a “grim scourge.” Three elderly people also lost their lives in the heat near Bordeaux, and two children aged two and four were found dead in a hot car in southern France Tuesday.


 
In Spain, temperatures exceeded 113 degrees Fahrenheit in Andújar, a municipality in the south of the country, according to the weather service AEMET. Nearly the whole country was under a heat alert Tuesday.

Heat alerts are in place for 23 countries in Europe Tuesday, with five at the most severe red level: Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland and Luxembourg.

Relentless, deadly heat is tightening its grip on Europe, with temperature records expected to not just fall but be obliterated this week. Scientists warn this extreme heat is a huge problem for Europe and a wake up call to a new reality.





This week is yet another brutal reminder that European heat is becoming both more severe and more frequent. It marks the second record-breaking heat wave in two straight months, with the potential for national all-time temperature records to be broken before Europe even reaches July, typically its hottest month.

“This isn’t the new norm at all; this is the foothills of absolute catastrophe,” said Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care medicine at University College London






Heat alerts are in place for 23 countries in Europe Tuesday, with five at the most severe red level: Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland and Luxembourg.





Scientists say that even without El Niño, climate change is the driving force of extreme heat. “There’s a sad inevitability to all of this, with scientists like me trotting out the same quotes year after year,” said Friederike Otto, a climate science professor at Imperial College London. “Yes it’s climate change, yes it’s us, no it’s not El Niño.”
 
Guno צְבִי said:
Relentless, deadly heat is tightening its grip on Europe, with temperature records expected to not just fall but be obliterated this week. Scientists warn this extreme heat is a huge problem for Europe and a wake up call to a new reality.

Europe is the planet’s fastest-warming continent, heating at around two to three times the global average, yet it’s woefully underprepared. Its infrastructure was not built for extreme heat; when temperatures spike, rail tracks buckle, power cables break, homes turn into heat traps, and thousands die.

This week is yet another brutal reminder that European heat is becoming both more severe and more frequent. It marks the second record-breaking heat wave in two straight months, with the potential for national all-time temperature records to be broken before Europe even reaches July, typically its hottest month.

“This isn’t the new norm at all; this is the foothills of absolute catastrophe,” said Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care medicine at University College London.

The heat has quickly turned deadly. France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced Tuesday that 40 people had drowned since June 18, linking the drownings to soaring temperatures and calling them a “grim scourge.” Three elderly people also lost their lives in the heat near Bordeaux, and two children aged two and four were found dead in a hot car in southern France Tuesday.


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"Global warming is a Chinese hoax!"
- Donald Trump​
 
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Guno צְבִי said:
Relentless, deadly heat is tightening its grip on Europe, with temperature records expected to not just fall but be obliterated this week. Scientists warn this extreme heat is a huge problem for Europe and a wake up call to a new reality.

Europe is the planet’s fastest-warming continent, heating at around two to three times the global average, yet it’s woefully underprepared. Its infrastructure was not built for extreme heat; when temperatures spike, rail tracks buckle, power cables break, homes turn into heat traps, and thousands die.

This week is yet another brutal reminder that European heat is becoming both more severe and more frequent. It marks the second record-breaking heat wave in two straight months, with the potential for national all-time temperature records to be broken before Europe even reaches July, typically its hottest month.

“This isn’t the new norm at all; this is the foothills of absolute catastrophe,” said Hugh Montgomery, professor of intensive care medicine at University College London.

The heat has quickly turned deadly. France’s Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced Tuesday that 40 people had drowned since June 18, linking the drownings to soaring temperatures and calling them a “grim scourge.” Three elderly people also lost their lives in the heat near Bordeaux, and two children aged two and four were found dead in a hot car in southern France Tuesday.


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Admittedly I haven't followed this closely but the article is saying Europe hasn't prepared its infrastructure for the heat.

Thoughts or ideas on what they should, or will, do?
 
Jade Dragon said:
It's hard because they have a lot of historical architecture older than Western civilization itself. It may not be possible in many situations.
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By that do you mean these buildings can't physically be updated? Or that the desire to preserve the architectural history can prevent the buildings from being updated?
 
cawacko said:
By that do you mean these buildings can't physically be updated? Or that the desire to preserve the architectural history can prevent the buildings from being updated?
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A mix of both, truthfully. I see some stubbornness, but I also see the changes being difficult, if not making spaces impractical. Spaces are already small in those old buildings. Could you imagine trying to add HVAC for air conditioning? I suppose you could try mini-splits, but they have to vent to the outside. That might change things in appearance and bring out some of that stubbornness.
 
Jade Dragon said:
A mix of both, truthfully. I see some stubbornness, but I also see the changes being difficult, if not making spaces impractical. Spaces are already small in those old buildings. Could you imagine trying to add HVAC for air conditioning? I suppose you could try mini-splits, but they have to vent to the outside. That might change things in appearance and bring out some of that stubbornness.
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San Francisco isn't really comparable here, but many of our buildings don't have AC and on those days when it does get hot people don't like being inside because it's not comfortable.

I know retrofitting some of those historic buildings in Europe can be extremely expensive. I suppose it will come down to whether it reaches a point where people feel so uncomfortable they decide something needs to be done.
 
Is the current heatwave in Europe unique or unprecedented?



Europe has experienced far higher and lower temperatures in the distant past (e.g., during Pleistocene interglacials, the Holocene Climatic Optimum, and regionally during the Medieval Warm Period) driven by natural factors such as orbital changes, solar variability, volcanic activity, and ocean circulation shifts—unrelated to human activities.
 
it is not "impossible" or "impracticable" to install air conditioning in European buildings.

It is done regularly, though it faces practical, regulatory, cost, and cultural barriers that explain the relatively low adoption rate (~20% of households continent-wide, much lower in Northern Europe).


Key Realities​


  • It happens frequently: Portable units are common and easy to deploy. Split systems and central AC are installed in homes, offices, and new constructions, especially in Southern Europe (e.g., higher rates in Spain, Italy, Greece). Sales are rising amid recent heatwaves.
  • Barriers exist(not impossibilities):
    • Multi-unit buildings: In apartments (common in cities), owners' associations or co-owners must often approve external units, which can be contentious due to aesthetics or noise.
    • Historic buildings: Strict preservation rules limit external modifications, drilling, or facade changes in protected structures (common in Europe). Internal or non-invasive solutions are possible but more constrained.
    • Costs and regulations: Installation can be expensive (€500–several thousand euros depending on type/size), plus energy efficiency rules, F-Gas refrigerant restrictions, and building codes. Running costs depend on electricity prices and efficiency.
    • Building stock: Older, thick-walled buildings provide natural insulation (helpful in moderate heat) but can complicate retrofits.
    • Culture and policy: Historically mild summers meant less demand; focus on energy efficiency and climate goals discourages widespread AC in favor of passive cooling, shading, or district systems.

In short, AC is technically and legally feasible (and increasingly adopted as summers warm), but not as straightforward or universal as in the US due to Europe's older building stock, dense urban design, and policy priorities. Many Europeans use alternatives like fans, shutters, or night ventilation.
 
Isn't it a fact that many scientists quoted by the media have a vested interest in propagating a climate-themed agenda?



Yes, it's a fact that incentives and potential conflicts of interest exist in climate science, as in many fields.


Funding and Incentives​


  • Most climate research is funded by governments, universities, and public grants. Critics argue this creates a structural incentive: alarming findings can secure more funding, media attention, and policy influence ("publish or perish" + societal relevance).
  • Fossil fuel interests have funded skeptical research or think tanks in the past (e.g., documented cases with certain researchers). Conversely, renewable/energy transition industries and environmental groups also fund or promote aligned work.
  • Journals require conflict disclosures, but enforcement varies, and non-financial biases (career advancement, ideology, activism) exist too. Studies on hurricane-climate links, for example, have highlighted low disclosure rates in some papers.

Broader Context​


  • Media selection bias: Outlets often quote scientists or spokespeople who align with their narrative. Alarmist voices get more airtime in progressive media; skeptical ones in others. This amplifies certain views.
 
cawacko said:
San Francisco isn't really comparable here, but many of our buildings don't have AC and on those days when it does get hot people don't like being inside because it's not comfortable.

I know retrofitting some of those historic buildings in Europe can be extremely expensive. I suppose it will come down to whether it reaches a point where people feel so uncomfortable they decide something needs to be done.
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The implication of this discussion being intolerable outdoor temps.
 
Is the reported spate of recent deaths by drowning reasonably attributable to a spike in unsupervised swimming driven by Europeans unfamiliar with water safety?


Yes, authorities and reports directly attribute the recent spike in drowning deaths during the 2026 European heatwave primarily to a surge in people—often young or inexperienced swimmers—entering unsupervised waters (rivers, lakes, canals, forbidden beaches) to cool off.


Key Details from France (the hardest-hit area)​


  • ~40 drowning deaths reported since mid-June (as of June 23), with many occurring over the weekend. Most victims were young people/teenagers.
  • Officials explicitly link this to the heat: People seeking relief in non-supervised spots, underestimating risks (currents, cold water shock, alcohol, fatigue, poor swimming ability).
  • Examples: Teenagers in forbidden areas; a 13-year-old girl who couldn't swim in the Seine; spikes in emergencies at popular but risky spots.
  • Similar patterns in the UK, Germany, and elsewhere during the same heat events (e.g., teenagers in reservoirs/lakes).

This is consistent with prior heatwaves: Drownings rose sharply (e.g., 172% in one prior French summer) as more people rush to water without lifeguards or preparation. Heat exacerbates risks via dehydration, exhaustion, and crowds. Authorities issued repeated warnings against unsupervised swimming.

While other heat-related deaths (elderly from hyperthermia, children in hot cars) occurred, the drowning spike is reasonably and explicitly tied to this behavioral response to the higher temperatures.
 
martin said:
The implication of this discussion being intolerable outdoor temps.
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It gets hot in the summer.

Isn't it a fact that reliable weather measurements only extend a century and a half into the past?


Yes.


Reliable, widespread instrumental (thermometer-based) weather and temperature measurements with sufficient global coverage for estimating planetary or large-scale averages only extend back to roughly the mid-to-late 19th century—about 150–175 years.


Key Timeline​


  • Scattered reliable station records exist earlier in some European locations (e.g., Central England series from 1659), but they are too localized and inconsistent for global conclusions.
  • Systematic global/hemispheric coverage begins around 1850 (some datasets) to 1880 (widely used baseline by NASA, NOAA, etc.), when enough land stations and ship measurements became available.

This is a standard acknowledgment in climatology: The "instrumental record" is relatively short.
 
Isn't it true that "climate models" are projections that are influenced by human input which allows bias?


Yes. Climate models are computational projections of future climate states that rely heavily on human input—including choices in equations, parameterizations, initial conditions, tuning to historical data, and assumed emissions scenarios—which inherently allows for potential bias in design, interpretation, or emphasis.
 
Isn't there evidence of hotter temperatures that were demonstrably survivable by humans in the past, before the Industrial Revolution?

Yes.


There is evidence of periods with warmer temperatures (in some regions and globally averaged) during the Holocene epoch that were survivable by human societies long before the Industrial Revolution.


Key Examples​


  • Holocene Climatic Optimum (~9,000–5,000 years ago): Many reconstructions show Northern Hemisphere summers warmer than the 20th century average in various locations. Sea levels were higher, and human civilizations (early agriculture, settlements) thrived and expanded.
  • Medieval Warm Period (~950–1250 CE): Parts of Europe and the North Atlantic were notably warmer, enabling Viking settlement in Greenland, expanded vineyards in England, and population growth. While not uniformly global or hotter than today in all metrics, it demonstrates human adaptation to warmer conditions.
  • Other warm intervals occurred within the last few thousand years, with humans (hunter-gatherers, farmers, early states) surviving and sometimes benefiting (longer growing seasons in mid-latitudes).

These were driven by natural factors (solar, orbital, volcanic, ocean circulation).
 
Are you familiar with the the phenomenon of "ghost stations"?


es.


"Ghost stations" (also called "phantom" or "zombie" stations) refer to weather stations that no longer physically exist, have been closed, or never existed at a given location, yet continue to contribute estimated or interpolated temperature data to climate datasets (e.g., GHCN used by NOAA/NASA).


How It Works​


  • When real stations shut down (due to budget, maintenance, or relocation), agencies use statistical methods like spatial interpolation, nearby stations, or climate models to "fill in" missing data for continuity in long-term records.
  • Critics argue this can introduce bias (e.g., warmer estimates in some cases, urban influence creeping in, or adjustments during colder periods). Proponents say it's necessary for complete global averages and that adjustments are validated.

This practice is documented in discussions around data homogenization and station drop-off since the 1990s. It highlights challenges in maintaining consistent, high-quality instrumental records over time.
 
Could it logically deduced that a strong possibility exists that an ideologically-motivated group might manipulate their conclusions in order to "prove" and promulgate their preexisting conclusions?


Yes.


It is logically possible—and a recognized risk in any scientific field—that an ideologically motivated group (or individuals) could selectively interpret data, emphasize favorable results, downplay uncertainties, or adjust methodologies in ways that support preexisting conclusions.


This is known as confirmation bias, motivated reasoning, or groupthink. It has been documented across disciplines (politics, nutrition, psychology, medicine, etc.), where funding, career incentives, social pressure, or worldview alignment influence outcomes. Transparency, replication, open data, and adversarial review help mitigate it, but they do not eliminate the possibility.


Science is a human process, not infallible. Skepticism toward strong claims from aligned sources is rational.
 
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