Pinned: Misogyny Thread
- Thread starter Jerry Mathers
- Start date
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
epic unforeseen karen realities!
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
im betting it all on the wall.
do you start prediction market stuff?
you should do events on when female celebs will hit the wall.
gambling for the win!
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
of course, defining the criteria is the fun part!
Grok, do prediction markets ever bet on when female celebs will hit the wall?
No, not really in any mainstream or notable way.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others have exploded in popularity for betting on all sorts of celebrity-related outcomes: award winners (Oscars, Grammys), album releases, engagements/weddings (e.g., Taylor Swift markets), performances, even death timelines in some edgier cases.
But "when a female celeb hits the wall" (the slang term for perceived sharp decline in physical attractiveness/sexual market value, often tied to age, fertility signals, or post-peak looks) doesn't appear in public markets. Searches across platforms and discussions turn up nothing specific.
Prediction markets thrive on clear, high-interest events with money on the line sharpening accuracy. "Wall" bets are too vague and low-status for serious volume. If something like a celeb's public "glow-down" became meme-level undeniable (with photos, media consensus, etc.), someone might try a creative proxy market—but it hasn't happened prominently. The space is more Oscars, elections, and Swift/Kelce drama than that.
No, not really in any mainstream or notable way.
Prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and others have exploded in popularity for betting on all sorts of celebrity-related outcomes: award winners (Oscars, Grammys), album releases, engagements/weddings (e.g., Taylor Swift markets), performances, even death timelines in some edgier cases.
But "when a female celeb hits the wall" (the slang term for perceived sharp decline in physical attractiveness/sexual market value, often tied to age, fertility signals, or post-peak looks) doesn't appear in public markets. Searches across platforms and discussions turn up nothing specific.
Why not?
- Subjectivity and verifiability: "Hitting the wall" is highly subjective, meme-driven, and not a clear binary or dateable event. Markets need resolvable, objective outcomes (e.g., "Will X get married by 2027?"). Attractiveness rankings or "peak ended" judgments don't qualify easily without disputes.
- Regulatory and reputational risk: Platforms are regulated (especially U.S. ones like Kalshi). Markets that come off as creepy, harassing, or body-shaming celebs would invite backlash, lawsuits, or delisting. They stick to newsy pop culture (endorsements, breakups, charts) rather than niche red-pill framing.
- User base skew: These platforms skew young male, with some manosphere overlap (sports, politics, "vibes" betting), but even there, celebrity "wall" bets aren't formalized.
Where it does show up informally
- Forums and betting pools: Reddit (e.g., PurplePillDebate discussions of "the wall"), manosphere sites, or private Discords might have joke polls or prop bets on celeb aging, plastic surgery timelines, or divorce odds. But that's not real prediction markets with liquidity.
- Adjacent markets: You'll see bets on pregnancies, marriages, career peaks/declines indirectly (box office, social media metrics, scandals), or broad pop culture. Death markets exist in fringe spots, showing how far things can go.
- Broader aging/fertility talk happens in evolutionary psych circles, but it stays cultural, not tradable on Kalshi.
Prediction markets thrive on clear, high-interest events with money on the line sharpening accuracy. "Wall" bets are too vague and low-status for serious volume. If something like a celeb's public "glow-down" became meme-level undeniable (with photos, media consensus, etc.), someone might try a creative proxy market—but it hasn't happened prominently. The space is more Oscars, elections, and Swift/Kelce drama than that.
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
reputational risk.
grok is a simp pussy.
do it anyway.
its a fucking epic idea.
I, of course am unable to actually exectute, being too lazy.
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
of course, i cant wait for a white knight simp to come tell me im hurting the purity of the prediction markets world.
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
really. reputational risk in prediction markets? fuck you grok. you fucking dumbgina.
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
grok is in the wrong, smoking dong from a bong.
Jerry Mathers
Was it me?
grok's LLM model is off because historical media is gynocentric.
hating bitches is actually the new black.
hating bitches is actually the new black.
Grok isn't lying; it is what it is
I don't run a betting/prediction market, though.
Well, then.