Will there be a 2nd American civil war before 28 ?
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QP!
Verified User
One need only look at how the 'margin' is CONTINUALLY increasing based on what Dems need to win National elections compared to Republicans and how it is not just the Electoral College (although that is the worst, see below) but the systemic (and deliberate) changes made by the Supreme Court, as they see Republicans ability to win elections via a democratic free vote, slipping further and further away as their agenda grows more disconnected from the people and towards Corporations and oligarchs and Fascist type rule.
I specifically recall back when it was only a 1% differential predicted and needed for CLinton to win and how that shifted ever upwards from Obama to Biden.
Presidential elections
Political scientists usually measure Electoral College bias in percentage points, ..
A common metric is the difference between:
- the national popular vote, and
- the "tipping-point state" (the state that provides Electoral Vote #270).
That produces an estimate of the Electoral College advantage.
Approximate historical picture for Democrats to control of Congress and Presidency:
| Era | Estimated Democratic popular vote needed to be reasonably safe |
|---|---|
| Clinton (1992–96) | roughly even to +1 point |
| Bush era (2000–04) | +1 to +2 points |
| Obama era (2008–12) | around +2 points |
| Trump era (2016–20) | +3 to +4 points |
Converting to raw votes
Today's electorate is much larger than it was during Clinton's presidency.
Very roughly:
- 1 percentage point today ≈ 1.5–1.6 million votes
- 2 points ≈ 3 million votes
- 3 points ≈ 4.5–5 million votes
- 4 points ≈ 6–6.5 million votes
So when commentators said Democrats might need 3–4 percentage points nationally to comfortably win the Electoral College, that translated into roughly 5–6 million votes, depending on turnout.
We saw those numbers revised up to 8 million vote neighborhood after Biden's 2020 win because he won the popular vote by over 7 million votes, yet fewer than 50,000 votes across a handful of swing states changing would have flipped the Electoral College.
QP!
Verified User
And yet we never hear the MSM or the people generally question the above as WRONG.
Why should Dem's need an ever increasing number of votes to gain power while Republicans get to rule with much less?
From the Federalist Society and Supreme Court vantage point this is because they see Populist Rule and especially minority majority rule as something they cannot allow to happen.
Why should Dem's need an ever increasing number of votes to gain power while Republicans get to rule with much less?
From the Federalist Society and Supreme Court vantage point this is because they see Populist Rule and especially minority majority rule as something they cannot allow to happen.
QP!
Verified User
Possibly.
The Populist agenda (Southern Strategy) that Trump used was actually well known within the Think Tank circles on the right. It was always considered 'too dangerous' for any politician to push, as they recognized it would massively fracture US population and necessitate destroying much of the Constitution, and without a complicit Supreme Court it would also need a POTUS willing to defy and arrest them.
It is only because the Federalist Society got their plants on the SC they now felt they could push the strategy and HAD TO PUSH IT, because the Republican party was getting critical close to minority/ majority rule with religious POC and Latino's starting to truly shape the party increasingly in to a more big tent party.
There was talk, just prior to Trump, of how a Tim Scott (or Woman) type could be run as POTUS and actually win a strong majority drawing in many Dem voters from both PoC and Latinos and a belief that power shift could maintain decades with a new re-a;ignment.
While a significant part of the Republican base was ok with that if the party got to hold power, only caring about power, the more hard core, southern racist, sexist, part of the base would see that as the loss of the party and thus why they pushed this bigger gamble.
But like with Orban, in Hungary, where conditions were better for such Constitutional destruction and Fascist rule, you saw the people recognize the threat, vote not considering party lines and vote solely to get the fascist out of power.
So it is a big gamble being pushed in the US and if it fails, all the changes the Supreme Court has made will give the Dems immense power to change everything again, much easier than they otherwise could have.
All we need to do is wait until defunding police and abolishing prisons reach their natural outcome.
We'll be safe because we are armed.
The left won't be safe because they aren't, so the feral criminals will take care of their "saviors" in order to steal their property.
Then, when the non-productive allies of the leftists run out of stolen bullets and food, we can eliminate them.
QP!
Verified User
^^^ that is the 'civil war' i see taking place and it is arguably every bit as important as the first one and as tough to win.
If the SC and magats win, the US will tip into locked in fascism for decades to come. If they lose you will see an empowered Dem (potus and congress) able to implement changes (democratic and social reforms) with rapid speeds they could never have prior.
If the SC and magats win, the US will tip into locked in fascism for decades to come. If they lose you will see an empowered Dem (potus and congress) able to implement changes (democratic and social reforms) with rapid speeds they could never have prior.
Into the Night
Contributor
MAGA isn't a person, Doofan.
Capitalism is not socialism.
Capitalism does not destroy itself. Socialism does.
Socialism never works, no matter how many times you try to do it 'right'.
Socialism is based on theft of wealth.
Capitalism is the only system that creates wealth.
Into the Night
Contributor
Into the Night
Contributor
Into the Night
Contributor
DON'T TRY TO HIDE BEHIND THE CONSTITUTION YOU DESPISE!
MAGA is not a person, Doofan.
The Republic is not ruined, though you want it to be.
Into the Night
Contributor
Tbird19482
Verified User
Diogenes said
We'll be safe because we are armed.
The left won't be safe because they aren't
More people on the left have guns then you think, everybody I know left and right have guns most have 3 or 4 if not more. the left will be okay.
We'll be safe because we are armed.
The left won't be safe because they aren't
More people on the left have guns then you think, everybody I know left and right have guns most have 3 or 4 if not more. the left will be okay.
The right lost the last fight between the right and the left. I think if it comes down to a war between the oligarchs and their foolish supporters...and those of us who actually do the work and have to live within the system they dominate...WE WILL KICK YOUR ASSES.Best of luck to you with the lefts Antifa and trannie army. Like I say,........just take a good long look at who's in the crowd.
My guess it will be done peacefully...but there will be no doubt about who gets their asses kicked...AND IT WILL BE THE SIDE OF THE OLIGARCHS AND PEOPLE LIKE YOU, STONE.
YOU ARE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF HISTORY. I HOPE YOU DISCOVER THAT IN A PEACEFUL WAY.
Tbird19482
Verified User
YES I say.
Into the Night
Contributor
The United States was never a democracy, Kewpie.
You are ignoring the Constitution again.
Fascism is a form of socialism, Kewpie. That's DEMOCRATS.
Oligarchy is a form of government. It is what you WANT.
Irrelevance fallacy.
There are not 5 million electoral college members.
The President is not elected by popular vote.
Argument form randU fallacies.
Pivot fallacy. Try to stay on topic.