An Earth Day Reminder: “Global Warming” Is Only ~50% Of What Models Predict

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Great modelling there!
 
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Dr. Roy Spencer maintains the UAH satellite temperature dataset along with Dr.John Christy. He is a meteorologist, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite. He has served as senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/0...al-warming-is-only-50-of-what-models-predict/
Dr Roy Spencer is a Church of Global Warming believer, but is just part of a different sect of that religion. He is part of the "not catastrophic" sect, and such people are absolutely despised by the "catastrophic" sect of the religion. I, rather, am not part of the religion at all. I'll now go through his post line by line and add my commentary to it:

The claim by the Biden Administration that climate change has placed us in a moment of “profound crisis” ignores the fact that the energy policy changes being promoted are based upon computer model simulations which have produced average warming rates at least DOUBLE those observed in the last 40+ years.
The first problem here is that "climate change" is an undefined buzzword. It typically gets circularly defined, which is completely and utterly meaningless. Also, climate is not quantifiable. There is no such thing as "more climate", "less climate", or "average climate". The word 'change' being tacked onto the end of the word 'climate' implies that climate is somehow quantifiable, yet it is NOT quantifiable, so the terminology makes absolutely no sense from the get go (as it fails the internal consistency check).

The second problem here is that Dr Spencer is that there aren't any "observed warming rates" (nothing beyond completely wild guesses, anyway), as it is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth to any usable accuracy. This is because we do not have near enough thermometers to do so, and it is not feasible for us to place thermometers in a manner so that they are evenly spaced and simultaneously read by the same observer (in order to eliminate location and time biases in the data being collected).

Just about every climate claim made by politicians, and even many vocal scientists, has been either an exaggeration or a lie.
This is correct. Most climate claims made by politicians are erroneous in one way or another.

While it is easy for detractors of what I will show to claim I am in the scientific minority (true), or that I am a climate denier (not true; I do not deny some level of human-caused warming), the fact is that the “official” observations in recent decades are in disagreement with the “official” climate models being promoted for the purposes of implementing expensive, economically-damaging, and poverty-worsening energy policies.
See my explanation above about the "observed warming rates" nonsense.

Global Ocean Temperatures are Warming at Only ~50% the Rate of Climate Model Projections

Today’s example comes from global-average sea surface temperatures. The oceans provide our best gauge of how fast extra energy is accumulating in the climate system. Since John Christy and I are working on a project that explains global ocean temperatures since the late 1800s with a 1D climate model, I thought I would show you just how the observations are comparing to climate models simulations.
Firstly, it is not possible to measure global ocean temperature to any usable accuracy, for similar reasons that I have explained earlier regarding Earth's temperature.

Secondly, Dr Spencer needs to define what he means by "climate system". I have no idea what he is referring to there. What climate is he referring to, and how is that climate a system?

The plot below (Fig. 1) shows the monthly global (60N-60S) average ocean surface temperature variations since 1979 for 68 model simulations from 13 different climate models. The 42 years of observations we now have since 1979 (bold black line) shows that warming is occurring much more slowly than the average climate model says it should have.

Fig. 1. 68 CMIP6 climate model simulations of global average sea surface temperature (relative to the 5 year average, 1979-1983), and compared to observations from the ERSSTv5 dataset.

In terms of the linear temperature trends since 1979, Fig. 2 shows that 2 of the top-cited ocean temperature datasets have warming trends near the bottom of the range of climate model simulations.

Fig. 2. Linear temperature trends, 1979-2020, for the various model and observational datasets in Fig. 1, plus the HadSST3 observational record.
Meaningless numbers due to what I have explained earlier. This is pure guesswork and nothing more.

Deep Ocean Warming Could Be Mostly Natural

A related issue is how much the deep oceans are warming. As I have mentioned before, the (inarguable) energy imbalance associated with deep-ocean warming in recent decades is only about 1 part (less than 1 Watt per sq. m) in 300 of the natural energy flows in the climate system.

This is a very tiny energy imbalance in the climate system. We know NONE of the natural energy flows to that level of accuracy.
See my above commentary.

What that means is that global warming could be mostly natural, and we would not even know it.

I’m not claiming that is the case. I am merely pointing out the level of faith that is involved in the adjustments made to climate models, which necessarily produce warming due to increasing CO2 because those models simply assume that there is no other source of warming.
And might I point out the level of faith involved in rejecting logic, math, and science to believe in a religion based on buzzwords.

Yes, more CO2 must produce some warming. But the amount of warming makes all the difference to global energy policies.
Science denial (2nd Law of Thermodynamics). Within the closed Sun-Earth-Space system, a colder gas (CO2) cannot heat a warmer surface (Earth's surface). Heat flows from hot to cold, not vice versa. It is not possible for CO2 to heat Earth's surface.

Seldom is the public ever informed of these glaring discrepancies between basic science and what politicians and pop-scientists tell us.

Why does it matter?

It matters because there is no Climate Crisis. There is no Climate Emergency.
This is correct.

Yes, irregular warming is occurring.
We don't know whether the Earth is warming, cooling, or staying the same temperature, as we have no feasible way to accurately measure Earth's temperature.

Yes, it is at least partly due to human greenhouse gas emissions.
Logic/science denials. There is no such thing as a "greenhouse gas". Colder gases cannot heat warmer surfaces, as I explained above. One does not put ice cubes in their coffee to make it hot.

But seldom are the benefits of a somewhat warmer climate system mentioned, or the benefits of more CO2 in the atmosphere (which is required for life on Earth to exist).
This is correct, sans whatever a 'climate system' is supposed to be.

CO2 is quite literally plant food. Plants gobble it up and thrive when there is more of it. John Kerry's idea to remove all CO2 from the atmosphere is horrific, since that would destroy all life on Earth (and would require the destruction of all life on Earth in order to fully achieve).

But if we waste trillions of dollars (that’s just here in the U.S. — meanwhile, China will always do what is in the best interests of China) then that is trillions of dollars not available for the real necessities of life.

Prosperity will suffer, and for no good reason.
Bingo. Dr Spencer has this part nailed.

So, I do agree with the "no catastrophe" part of Dr Spencer's sect of Church of Global Warming theology, but I do not agree with the Church of Global Warming theology as a whole, no matter the particular sect of it being discussed. It requires one to reject logic, science, and mathematics in order to adhere to it, so I am not a believer.
 
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THE REAL "ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS" is the contamination of our air, soil and water with heavy metals, etc., while we blow resources on the imaginary CO2 "boogeyman"...
 
Climate alarmists are wrong to call perceived fluctuations in temperature and other climate changes an “emergency”

Both research literature and government reports state clearly that heat waves in the US are now no more common than they were in 1900, and that the warmest temperatures in the US have not risen in the past fifty years,” Steven Koonin, the fomer undersecretary for science at the Department of Energy, wrote.

“Humans have had no detectable impact on hurricanes over the past century,” he wrote, adding that “Greenland’s ice sheet isn’t shrinking any more rapidly today than it was 80 years ago.”

“The global area burned by wildfires has declined more than 25 percent since 2003 and 2020 was one of the lowest years on record,” he said.



https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/obama-administration-scientist-slams-claims-of-climate-emergency-heat-waves-are-no-more-common-than-they-were-in-1900/ar-BB1g2dob?ocid=msedgntp
 
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Dr. Roy Spencer maintains the UAH satellite temperature dataset along with Dr.John Christy. He is a meteorologist, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite. He has served as senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center.



https://www.drroyspencer.com/2021/0...al-warming-is-only-50-of-what-models-predict/

Unfortunately, Dr. Spencer has no idea what the temperature of Earth actually is. It's not possible to measure it. We just don't have anywhere near enough thermometers to even begin a sensible statistical summary of this type.

Satellites are incapable of measuring absolute temperature. The emissivity of Earth is unknown and likewise cannot be measured. We don't have enough thermometers.
 
All the solids and liquids being turned into gases, is having a serious effect. It's much less the composition and much more the total atmosphearic volume. More water, bigger waves. More sky, more storms etc. Take a look at venus. Venus has the same gravitational pull and 100 times more atmosphear. Wind speeds on venus reach 220 mph. We're in no way up to maximum capturable atmosphear. Whatever asshole tried to tell anyone some bs like tgat is some asshole tgat doesnt even check sht before talkin sht. We've likely made a total of 1trillion tons of gas in the last 1000 years with only half that being from oil consumtion alone. Now, since some nasa asswipy liar pos whent on a terminal atmosphearic mass crusade no one can trust any of the available data relating to total atmosphearic mass on earth. Can trust a climatologist for nothing right now.

Venus doesn't have more of an atmosphere. It's just that the atmosphere contains mostly CO2, a heavy molecule. There is no water on Venus, so temperatures at the surface are like Death Valley on steroids, but the planet is closer to the Sun as well. The atmosphere is more dense, but there is not more of it.

No gas or vapor has the capability to create energy out of nothing, or to magickally reduce entropy.
The Stefan-Boltzmann law, which describes how much light is radiated by a substance due to thermal energy, has no component for type or composition of that substance. All substances behave exactly the same way.
 
You appear to be confused as to the subject. What I said was - 'This incident was notable in the trend of ' sudden stratospheric warming ' - the incident being the unprecedented freezing over of Texas.

Not unprecedented. Texas has had such freezes before. They usually only last for a week or two.
 
You really have to wonder just how objective Dr. Spencer is.

Other professional affiliations: Dr. Spencer is on the board of directors of the George C. Marshall Institute, a right-wing conservative think tank on scientific issues and public policy. He listed as an expert for the Heartland Institute, a libertarian American public policy think tank. Dr. Spencer is also listed as an expert by the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP), a global warming "skeptic" organization [DeSmogBlog].

https://skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Roy_Spencer.htm

He isn't. He is making up numbers and calling them data. This is an argument from randU fallacy.
It is not possible to measure the temperature of the Earth. We don't have anywhere near enough thermometers to even begin a sensible statistical summary of this type.
 
THE REAL "ENVIRONMENTAL CRISIS" is the contamination of our air, soil and water with heavy metals, etc., while we blow resources on the imaginary CO2 "boogeyman"...

Heavy metals fall out of the air. They are heavy.
They are normally part of our soil and water, which sits atop that soil.

Lead is so common you are walking on it everywhere you go. It usually is in the form of lead oxide.
Iron is also so common you are walking on it everywhere you go. It usually is in the form of iron oxide.
You get get iron particles out of just about anywhere by passing a magnet over loose soil.

Aluminum oxide (often in the form of bauxite) is one of the most prevalent metal sources on Earth. It is quite abundant.
Metallic mercury is often naturally found in deep lakes and pools. Doesn't hurt the fish one bit. People happily catch all kinds of fish on such a lake and never know the mercury is at the bottom of it. It naturally occurs there.

Yes, there is such a thing a mercury poisoning. Yes, you can get it from fish that have been swimming in waters polluted with mercury oxides., but that is far less of an issue than the Church of Green goes on about.

The 'resources' you mention are not fixed. While CO2 is incapable of warming the Earth, it IS being used by the Church of Global Warming to implement fascism and communism. The Church of Global Warming, the Church of Green, and the Church of Covid all stem from the Church of Karl Marx (also known as the Church of Plato).

It's the same old song. Domination by force.
 
Unfortunately, Dr. Spencer has no idea what the temperature of Earth actually is. It's not possible to measure it. We just don't have anywhere near enough thermometers to even begin a sensible statistical summary of this type.

Satellites are incapable of measuring absolute temperature. The emissivity of Earth is unknown and likewise cannot be measured. We don't have enough thermometers.

Yeh you've said that enough times and I've told you that you're talking bollox. Since 1979, NOAA satellites have been carrying instruments which measure the natural microwave thermal emissions from oxygen in the atmosphere. The intensity of the signals these microwave radiometers measure at different microwave frequencies is directly proportional to the temperature of different, deep layers of the atmosphere.

They use their own on-board precision redundant platinum resistance thermometers (PRTs) calibrated to a laboratory reference standard before launch to ensure accuracy.
 
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