Since the degenerative brain disease known as C.T.E. was first scientifically linked to football about 20 years ago, and as hundreds of former professional football players have been diagnosed with the disease after their deaths, a haunting question has lingered:
Just how many N.F.L. players will end up with C.T.E.?
The 25% "is clearly a minimum; the true percentage has to be higher,” said David Michaels, who was head of OSHA from 2009 to 2017, just as C.T.E. emerged as a health issue in football. “Whatever it is, the number is astoundingly high.”
Another former OSHA official, the chief scientist Adam Finkel, called it “apocalyptically high,” noting that Russian roulette carries better odds. To him, a risk of 1 in 100 would be an “epidemic.” But 25 percent?
“We never see things that are this dire,” he said.
New data provides a sobering indication: At least one in four of all the people who have played in the N.F.L. might expect to end up with chronic traumatic encephalopathy, according to a study of hundreds of cases over a recent six-year period.
Researchers considered every former N.F.L. player who died from 2016 to 2021. There were 878. Some died in their 20s, some in their 80s, most in between.
The study’s main finding was simple math: At least 215 of those 878 former players — 24.5 percent — had C.T.E.
The actual prevalence could be far higher. The roughly 25 percent rate does not consider the 643 brains that were not examined. Some of those, maybe many of them, likely had C.T.E. too.
C.T.E. is a progressive neurological disease caused by repeated impacts to the head. It can be definitively diagnosed only by examining the brain after death.
Studies have shown that the rate of C.T.E. in people who have not sustained repeated impacts to the head is nearly zero.
If the new study’s statistics were applied to today’s players — 1,696 on the league’s 32 regular-season rosters, not including more than 500 members of practice squads and those ineligible due to injury — at least 400 of them would be diagnosed with C.T.E.
Experts say that the rate of brain disease represents an occupational safety hazard with little comparison in the American workplace.
www.nytimes.com
Just how many N.F.L. players will end up with C.T.E.?
The 25% "is clearly a minimum; the true percentage has to be higher,” said David Michaels, who was head of OSHA from 2009 to 2017, just as C.T.E. emerged as a health issue in football. “Whatever it is, the number is astoundingly high.”
Another former OSHA official, the chief scientist Adam Finkel, called it “apocalyptically high,” noting that Russian roulette carries better odds. To him, a risk of 1 in 100 would be an “epidemic.” But 25 percent?
“We never see things that are this dire,” he said.
New data provides a sobering indication: At least one in four of all the people who have played in the N.F.L. might expect to end up with chronic traumatic encephalopathy, according to a study of hundreds of cases over a recent six-year period.
Researchers considered every former N.F.L. player who died from 2016 to 2021. There were 878. Some died in their 20s, some in their 80s, most in between.
The study’s main finding was simple math: At least 215 of those 878 former players — 24.5 percent — had C.T.E.
The actual prevalence could be far higher. The roughly 25 percent rate does not consider the 643 brains that were not examined. Some of those, maybe many of them, likely had C.T.E. too.
C.T.E. is a progressive neurological disease caused by repeated impacts to the head. It can be definitively diagnosed only by examining the brain after death.
Studies have shown that the rate of C.T.E. in people who have not sustained repeated impacts to the head is nearly zero.
If the new study’s statistics were applied to today’s players — 1,696 on the league’s 32 regular-season rosters, not including more than 500 members of practice squads and those ineligible due to injury — at least 400 of them would be diagnosed with C.T.E.
Experts say that the rate of brain disease represents an occupational safety hazard with little comparison in the American workplace.
At Least 1 in 4 NFL Players Gets CTE, Major New Study Finds
The actual prevalence, researchers said, may be much higher.
www.nytimes.com
