Deep Level Analysis - Trump is going to lose

Guille said:
I was kind of getting to the same question with you. You know very well the popular vote doesn't mean a thing as far as President is concerned.
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that's not true. While it IS TRUE that there is not a direct 1:1 correlation given we have 50 state level elections, the fact is if one is leading by 10 pts, among likely voters, and having a solid majority (not a plurality), and given historical trends that a presidential candidate has never lost an election with a majority vote count, and given ABC is actually one of the gold standards for national polling, this is very, very, very bad for trump.
 
adjust your expectations. Don't be like the idiot liberals in 2016 thinking the trump is going to dunk on the democrats. We have polling data going back basically a year at this point and biden has pretty much never dipped very much. HRC was satan, and one of the least liked candidates of all time. She was easy to beat with all her corruption. Biden is also corrupt but the media is running interference for him at this point
 
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anyone is delusional at this point if you look at those numbers and feel good about trump

Trumps path to victory is one of 3 ways:

1) curbstomps biden in the debates, biden poops his pants on stage (not entirely unlikely)

2) october surprise we can't predict yet

3) democrats are retarded and don't know how to read mail-in-voting instructions correctly and we punt like 3 million dem votes

personally I think the idiotic retard women voting for biden wont care no matter what. They dodnt care biden is a sexual assaulter (as believed by his VP running mate), they dont care he is corrupt. Their vaginas are so sore over trump taking out their girl hilary this is their revenge tour.
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
that's not true. While it IS TRUE that there is not a direct 1:1 correlation given we have 50 state level elections, the fact is if one is leading by 10 pts, among likely voters, and having a solid majority (not a plurality), and given historical trends that a presidential candidate has never lost an election with a majority vote count, and given ABC is actually one of the gold standards for national polling, this is very, very, very bad for trump.
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Do you believe the polls?
 
Guille said:
Back in the day there was reason to. Today? Not so much. After what you've seen happen over the last 4 years you think anyone connected to the media in any way is reliable?
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there really isn't a motivation to lie. The data is the data. What was wrong in 2016 was the extrapolation of the data by circlejerking pundits. The best pollers like nate silver constantly said trump had like a 30% chance to win, which is reasonably high. I recognized this reasonably high chance to win in 2016 and cemented myself and my deep level analysis.

this year the polls are actually going to be more accurate, because we have far less undecided voters. 2016 it was 17%, this year it's around 5%. Less undecided voters means less variance in predictive outcomes.

trump still has a reasonable chance to win according to 538, so it's not over. It's not looking good right now though.
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
there really isn't a motivation to lie. The data is the data. What was wrong in 2016 was the extrapolation of the data by circlejerking pundits. The best pollers like nate silver constantly said trump had like a 30% chance to win, which is reasonably high. I recognized this reasonably high chance to win in 2016 and cemented myself and my deep level analysis.

this year the polls are actually going to be more accurate, because we have far less undecided voters. 2016 it was 17%, this year it's around 5%. Less undecided voters means less variance in predictive outcomes.

trump still has a reasonable chance to win according to 538, so it's not over. It's not looking good right now though.
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Nate Silver was seriously fucking wrong about 2016. As for can you trust the media...I'd love to start going into the straight up lies they've told us over the last 4 years but there are just too damn many of them and we both know that. Anything...and I do mean anything put out by our media including poll results has to be adjusted in order to deal with the TDS factor.
 
Guille said:
Nate Silver was seriously fucking wrong about 2016. As for can you trust the media...I'd love to start going into the straight up lies they've told us over the last 4 years but there are just too damn many of them and we both know that. Anything...and I do mean anything put out by our media including poll results has to be adjusted in order to deal with the TDS factor.
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if liberals lied about polls all it would do is shoot themselves in the foot. In fact, that might be one of the reasons clinton lost in 2016, is that everyone was so sure she was going to win so they didn't bother to vote. There is literally nothing gained by lying about polls
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
if liberals lied about polls all it would do is shoot themselves in the foot. In fact, that might be one of the reasons clinton lost in 2016, is that everyone was so sure she was going to win so they didn't bother to vote. There is literally nothing gained by lying about polls
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Some polls are specifically designed to lie. Ever heard of a push poll?
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
if liberals lied about polls all it would do is shoot themselves in the foot. In fact, that might be one of the reasons clinton lost in 2016, is that everyone was so sure she was going to win so they didn't bother to vote. There is literally nothing gained by lying about polls
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I hope you're wrong, for a start you might learn to spell indefinite correctly!
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
this isn't a push poll. it's not being run by a campaign to trick people on an issue. it's the gold standard.
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There is no gold standard. The only truthful polls are the ones going to the campaigns, in private. If you're seeing it in the MSM it's meant to fuck with your head.
 
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