Deep Level Analysis - Trump is going to lose

BartenderElite said:
In a normal year, this election is definitely over. Trump blew it & would lose handily.

But many of his supporters think the virus is a hoax, and most if not all Democrats/Biden supporters do not.

This is fairly unprecedented. Will Biden supporters be disciplined about getting their mail-in ballots on time? Get out the vote efforts on election days have made a huge difference in the past - those will now be much less impactful.

Trump will enjoy the benefit of a much better turnout on the day itself. It's a wildcard. He could still win because of that.
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Just because the odds are against Trump winning doesn’t mean he can’t win.
 
Eagle_Eye said:
I wouldn't put a lot of faith in the polls. but if you want to so be it.
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The polls largely provide reliable quantitative data. You just have to careful not to use quantitative data alone and objective analyze the qualitative data as well.

2016 was shocking as most predictions were based on linear regression analysis of the quantitative polling data and didn’t consider the qualitative data. Those who successfully predicted Trumps win did so using qualitative analysis.

2016 was weird in that the quantitative data predicted him losing but the qualitative data predicted his winning. As it turned out the qualitative data was right but the quantitative data was wrong. This also shows the limits of regression methods of analyzing polling data.

2020 however the quantitative and qualitative are both predicting a Trump loss.

So statistically the odds are of Trump losing are greater than in 2020 but it’s not like the odds are 99.99% against him either.

Biden has a high predicted electoral vote count at 269 that still not 270. If Trump then sweeps the toss up States he wins.
 
Mott the Hoople said:
Obviously I didn’t. Limpballs is an extremist, a proven liar and hypocrite, as well as a party propagandist with no credibility what so ever. Why would any with critical thinking skills read some one as utterly disreputable as Limpballs? Why would I waste my valuable time on such a sordid polemicist as Limpballs when I could do something far more productive like reading the comic strips.
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You should read it to understand how . stupid that claim of Putin's bitch" ( etc.) is in the real world.
And the damage it's done to the FBI and INTEl credibility.

Like I said I primarily chose "Everyone colluded with Russia except Trump" as the accurate true measure
of the clusterf*ck the FBI/INTEL put various people thru hell on bogus investigations.

1. Flynn is still in legal jeopardy after losing his house.
2.Stone was only saved from a jail sentence because of Trump' s pardon
3.Manafort was dying in jail until he got a COVID release.
4. The 'Russian hoax' really was a false coup attempt build on known lies from spies

Aside from literally trying to get Trump removed and maybe indicted....serious stuff dude...
 
dukkha said:
You should read it to understand how . stupid that claim of Putin's bitch" ( etc.) is in the real world.
And the damage it's done to the FBI and INTEl credibility.

Like I said I primarily chose "Everyone colluded with Russia except Trump" as the accurate true measure
of the clusterf*ck the FBI/INTEL put various people thru hell on bogus investigations.

1. Flynn is still in legal jeopardy after losing his house.
2.Stone was only saved from a jail sentence because of Trump' s pardon
3.Manafort was dying in jail until he got a COVID release.
4. The 'Russian hoax' really was a false coup attempt build on known lies from spies

Aside from literally trying to get Trump removed and maybe indicted....serious stuff dude...
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He does that a lot, I've posted many articles down the years and he's done the same. Let's see if he avoids this as well?

But looking back over four years of Trumpism in U.S. foreign policy, has there really been so much wrong? Critics will point to failures in the Middle East and North Korea, but Trump mostly kept the United States out of an unwinnable war in Syria, fired John Bolton before he could start a war in Iran, and won plaudits in Israel for moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem. North Korea hasn’t conducted a nuclear test since 2017. And although many continue to believe that Trump is a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin, U.S. sanctions on Russia have only gotten tighter over the last four years. Trump sometimes takes flak for his support for Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, but the controversial leader has a strong democratic mandate, having been elected with 55 percent of the vote in 2018.

Amidst the torrent of criticism, the administration’s accomplishments are often forgotten. In North America, Trump pushed through a United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement that closed serious loopholes in the previous North American Free Trade Agreement, improved worker protections, and (mostly) stripped out controversial investor-state dispute settlement provisions. Meanwhile in Europe, Trump made himself unpopular in Germany by slapping sanctions on its Nord Stream 2 pipeline that will tie Western Europe to the Russian gas supply by carefully (and expensively) avoiding transit through Poland.

In East Asia, was it ever right to allow China to steal intellectual property, force U.S. firms into joint ventures, and erect an internet firewall around the entire country? Or to let it seize and militarize almost the entire South China Sea? In West Asia, the Arab-Israeli peace plan pushed by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, has gone nowhere—but then again, no one else has succeeded on that front in forty years. And would it have been right to maintain the nuclear deal with Iran, a regime committed to “wiping out Israel” and that still calls the United States “the Great Satan”? Or to continue to support the highly corrupt, thoroughly undemocratic Palestinian Authority?

In a welcome break from the recent past, the Trump administration’s tactic of applying “maximum pressure” has, in fact, been quite Palmerstonian. Palmerston wanted Britain to stand up for “justice” in international treaties and the “rights” of small countries, but “with moderation and prudence, not becoming the Quixote of the world.” Like the Trump administration, Palmerston would have seen forcing allies to bear the costs of their own defense as eminently sensible, the Syrian civil war as a terrible situation that his country could do little to improve, and a global climate accord as not being worth the paper it was written on.

Just like people, countries don’t always want what’s good for them.

When it comes to exerting maximum pressure on China to achieve British trade and investment targets, Palmerston prefigured Trump by 180 years. In 1840, he was the foreign secretary who effectively launched the First Opium War. Nor was the imperialist Palmerston an angel in his personal business affairs: Later in the 1840s, he harshly evicted his starving Irish tenants during the potato famine. But despite alienating potential allies and embittering political opponents, Palmerston effectively leveraged British power to achieve British aims, which were, on the whole, more liberal than those of any other major power at the time.

So Wolf is right after all that Trump, though no Palmerston, really is Palmerstonian. That may be unpleasant for Wolf, whose native Britain is one of those countries feeling the pressure that the United States can exert. But when the United States is pressuring Britain to deny Huawei a place in its 5G network infrastructure, should our sympathies lie with the long-suffering ally or the global bully? Ditto U.S. pressure on Germany to increase its defense spending, South Korea to pay more for U.S. troops on its soil, and the World Health Organization to stop shielding China from coronavirus criticism.
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https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/06/trump-foreign-policy-accomplishments/
 
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katzgar said:
Nate silver explained what went wrong in 2016 and explained that it's been corrected currently. The problem is you are too low IQ and two meth addled to understand what he said
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Here are two reasons why you are a fuckwit...they're not the only two but here we go:

1) My comment to Grind was about something he said about Silver in 2016...not after 2016. Reading comprehension is your friend, don't be afraid of it.

2) You know how Silver makes his money, right? He sells his polls. What else could he say after a massive failure other than "I know what I did wrong".
Seriously, did you expect Silver to say "yeah, my polling is still jacked up. Give me sheckels anyway."

I don't blame you for this because you're stupid but I will give you credit for one thing: you didn't come in here and mangle regressive analysis, that would have sent you down to moron level.
 
Guille said:
Here are two reasons why you are a fuckwit...they're not the only two but here we go:

1) My comment to Grind was about something he said about Silver in 2016...not after 2016. Reading comprehension is your friend, don't be afraid of it.

2) You know how Silver makes his money, right? He sells his polls. What else could he say after a massive failure other than "I know what I did wrong".
Seriously, did you expect Silver to say "yeah, my polling is still jacked up. Give me sheckels anyway."

I don't blame you for this because you're stupid but I will give you credit for one thing: you didn't come in here and mangle regressive analysis, that would have sent you down to moron level.
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The fact that you guys are low IQ and on opioids becomes more obvious every day
 
BRUTALITOPS said:
The democratic propaganda machine really works on the sheep.

Biden is leading too many polls in too many swing states, and this year we have a much small number of undecided voters which means far less variance than in 2016 with regards to polling.

There are 4 things that still help trump:

1) low educated white voters registration is up astronomically in PA. I believe last I saw it was up 50%, and this group is notoriously unrepresented in polling data. Democrat registration is down in states like florida.

2) General silent trump voter. We dont listen or engage with fake news and thus sampling might be skewed

3) enthusiasm gap. People are more enthusiastic to vote FOR trump and it's clear by just looking at his rallies and how happy trump supporters are to support him.

4) democrats are retards and can't follow simple instructions. They will screw up mail in voting because they can't read or put their vote in the proper envelope. I saw a NYT article recently saying possibly millions of democrat votes may be deemed ineligible. This imo is the most likely scenario and is why democrats are starting to sow the seeds of trump "stealing the election." Trump's total of people that vote in person on election day will be around 60-65% to bidens 30%. The vast majority of biden votes will be by mail. You can see this now with the biden camp freaking out and urging the democrat pussies to go to the polls live now because they know their voters are too dumb to check a box on a piece of paper and mail it in. So this helps trump as well.

Trump still has a very viable chance to win. He's around 25% right now according to nate silver, which is still a very likely outcome. That said, it's not looking good. Thankfully us owning the supreme court for the next 20 years will slow down democrat hegemony. No regrets.

I would love to be wrong about the above though
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Here are a few points in reply to your post...





(1) Do you really trust the polls? The same people reporting that the RNC was a dark and divisive ceremony to honour the evil spirit Mephistopheles are the ones pushing the polls on you. The polls are literally the only data point in Biden's favour. So why would you start believing the polls now?





(2) On November, 3rd, 1969 (not 2020) Richard Nixon gave his famous televised "Silent Majority" address to the nation. For much of the month before, thousands of members of the American counter culture - hippies, New Left activists and the like had been protesting loudly in the streets; in demonstrations to mark the first "Moritorium to End the War in Vietnam" that "officially" began on the 15th of October that year. The demonstrations and marches were made up of the same species of screaming anti-establishment leftist ratbag that you recently saw in the media coverage of the BLM protests and riots. They were a very vocal and disruptive minority and the left-leaning, liberal media gave them an inordinate amount of tacitly positive coverage. This eventually forced Nixon to provide a rebuttal which he did in his address to the nation which was televised on 3rd November that year.





In his address Nixon argued against the protester's case for an immediate withdrawal of all US troops from Vietnam. He made the case for a "peace with honour" end to America's involvement in the war in Vietnam that he dubbed "The Nixon Doctrine". The "Nixon Doctrine" relied on a process that was called "Vietnamization" and this process would take time. There would be no immediate withdrawal of American troops from Vietnam as demanded by the protestors. Given this, Nixon concluded his address with an appeal to the ordinary, average American, the men and women who were not screaming anti-war slogans and marching angrily through the streets. He ended his address by saying...





"And so, tonight, to you, the great silent majority of my fellow Americans - I ask for your support, let us be united for peace, let us be united against defeat: North Vietnam cannot defeat or humiliate the United States. Only Americans can do that."




The public reaction was overwhelming. Phone lines at the White House were jammed for hours as 1000s of people rang in to congratulate the President on his speech. In 1972, Nixon won a thumping election victory, taking 49 out of 50 states and vindicating his "silent majority",





So the lesson for 2020 is that it is a fact people are persecuted for daring to admit they support Trump. And this means that behind every one Trump supporter at, say, a MAGA rally, for example, is some UNKNOWN number of other "silent" Trump supporters. No one who is for Biden hides it, even though they should, if only to retain an aura of human dignity. But they are, of course, too stupid to realize this (Nordberg's posts are a good example here, their utter, irrational stupidity strips the author of all dignity and any entitlement he might claim to be treated with respect and consideration),





(3) I came across an interesting article written by an American guy that gave me pause for thought on the election issue. He said that the most powerful evidence he had found for a Trump victory on 3rd, November this year was purely anecdotal. He explained that he knew plenty of folks who had switched from Hillary/Biden to Trump, but he did not know a single person who has flipped Trump to Biden. Moreover he emphasized that he did not know a few, or some or "practically none" but NONE, ZERO, NIL, ZIP, and that very few of the people he knew know of any Trump- to- Biden flippers either. I think what he says is very plausible indeed. Think...why exactly would a 2016 Trump voter flip to Biden ??




(4) Finally, this is a personal sore point in my case. It's something that I simply CANNOT fathom. What it is, is this...How can people possibly vote for a Presidential contender who is wacked, fried and seriously demented ? OK, Biden did manage to read through his DNC teleprompter speech without his dentures falling out of his lie-hole, but pretty much everyone knows that "Sleepy Joe" is gone, daddy, gone. You simply can't put crazy Uncle Fartwell up to be POTUS and have people say, "Well, we taped up the wall sockets so he wouldn't stick his gruel spoon in one again, but I guess we can roll the dice giving him the nuclear codes !



Dachshund
 
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BRUTALITOPS said:
The democratic propaganda machine really works on the sheep.

Biden is leading too many polls in too many swing states, and this year we have a much small number of undecided voters which means far less variance than in 2016 with regards to polling.

There are 4 things that still help trump:

1) low educated white voters registration is up astronomically in PA. I believe last I saw it was up 50%, and this group is notoriously unrepresented in polling data. Democrat registration is down in states like florida.

2) General silent trump voter. We dont listen or engage with fake news and thus sampling might be skewed

3) enthusiasm gap. People are more enthusiastic to vote FOR trump and it's clear by just looking at his rallies and how happy trump supporters are to support him.

4) democrats are retards and can't follow simple instructions. They will screw up mail in voting because they can't read or put their vote in the proper envelope. I saw a NYT article recently saying possibly millions of democrat votes may be deemed ineligible. This imo is the most likely scenario and is why democrats are starting to sow the seeds of trump "stealing the election." Trump's total of people that vote in person on election day will be around 60-65% to bidens 30%. The vast majority of biden votes will be by mail. You can see this now with the biden camp freaking out and urging the democrat pussies to go to the polls live now because they know their voters are too dumb to check a box on a piece of paper and mail it in. So this helps trump as well.

Trump still has a very viable chance to win. He's around 25% right now according to nate silver, which is still a very likely outcome. That said, it's not looking good. Thankfully us owning the supreme court for the next 20 years will slow down democrat hegemony. No regrets.

I would love to be wrong about the above though
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1) What makes you think the voters in PA. are "low educated white voters"?
What do you mean by "low educated"? Because we don't live 100 ft. above
ground in a cubicle in a shithole city? Is that what you mean?
 
Another deep level analysis of Putin and the treasonous republican's lawlessly hacked in puppet tRump on a hell bound mission to destroy Democracy from within, the soul of humanity and anything else of a civilized nature:

Federal Criminal Offenses and the Impeachment of Donald J. Trump

Introduction: The Problem of Missing Witnesses and Documents for the Conviction of Donald J. Trump
Andrew Weissmann
Campaign Finance Law
Paul Ryan
Bribery
Randall Eliason
Honest Services Fraud
Barbara McQuade
Foreign Corrupt Practices Act
Susan Simpson
Hatch Act
Gary Stein
Contempt of Congress
Michael Stern
Impoundment Act (non-criminal law)
Sam Berger

After these atrocities conspired among tRump and his un American insurgency, if there are them who are still on board with the tRumpTanic and apparently are willing to kiss the fake president and his global criminal insurgency's hide all the way to a burning hell for losers and suckers on their body and soul, the eternal damnation choice is up to them.
https://www.justsecurity.org/67738/federal-criminal-offenses-and-the-impeachment-of-donald-j-trump/
 
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