Democrat James Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race

Provoking me?

By being an empty brain slouch who wants to Sound cool and be a societal pest?


What an empty shell of a human being you seek to be
There is MAGAs in a nutshell folks

Lines right up with the thoughts of the well know philosopher Diogenes

So do you admire him now that you know what he purported to be the essence of being human?
Or any other humans alive or dead
Mantra 1a. Lame.

MAGAs is not a word, Stooge.

Illiteracy: Missing periods. Random capitalization. Incorrect tense. Use of question mark as comma.
 

Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race​

The poll found the Austin Democrat with a commanding lead among independents and a surprising edge with non-college-educated voters, who have consistently favored Republicans

WASHINGTON — The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.


There is the problem right there :laugh:
 
Bottom line
so I am asked to defend this claim


Texas Public Opinion Research launched in September 2024. It has no meaningful history of final-election polling, no established accuracy grade and no scorecard showing how its numbers perform once actual voters replace carefully weighted survey respondents.

That is the wonderfully convenient feature of a brand-new polling organization: it gets to enjoy the authority of a pollster before enduring the embarrassment of being graded like one.

Real credibility is earned over multiple elections. You publish your final numbers, Election Day arrives, and everyone sees whether you accurately measured the electorate or merely supplied the campaign narrative somebody ordered.

TPOR has not reached that bothersome accountability stage. It has a polished website, an impressively bureaucratic name and “nonpartisan” printed on the packaging.

By the time enough elections have occurred to establish a real scorecard, these political operations can disappear, merge, rename themselves or return under another equally authoritative-sounding brand.

The headline travels immediately. The accountability arrives years later—assuming the company is still around to receive it.

so I am asked to defend this claim


Texas Public Opinion Research launched in September 2024. It has no meaningful history of final-election polling, no established accuracy grade and no scorecard showing how its numbers perform once actual voters replace carefully weighted survey respondents.

That is the wonderfully convenient feature of a brand-new polling organization: it gets to enjoy the authority of a pollster before enduring the embarrassment of being graded like one.

Real credibility is earned over multiple elections. You publish your final numbers, Election Day arrives, and everyone sees whether you accurately measured the electorate or merely supplied the campaign narrative somebody ordered.

TPOR has not reached that bothersome accountability stage. It has a polished website, an impressively bureaucratic name and “nonpartisan” printed on the packaging.

By the time enough elections have occurred to establish a real scorecard, these political operations can disappear, merge, rename themselves or return under another equally authoritative-sounding brand.

The headline travels immediately. The accountability arrives years later—assuming the company is still around to receive it.
Bottom line: the founder was a Dem strategist, so the GOP immediately cries "bias". Fine, PROVE IT BEYOND SPECULATION, SUSPICION, OPINION, SUPPOSITION AND CONJECTURE.
Until then, it's just sour grapes and smoke from magats like you.
Have you applied your "analysis" to othe Texas pollsters? Out of state polling agencies watching this race?
 
Bottom line



Bottom line: the founder was a Dem strategist, so the GOP immediately cries "bias". Fine, PROVE IT BEYOND SPECULATION, SUSPICION, OPINION, SUPPOSITION AND CONJECTURE.
Until then, it's just sour grapes and smoke from magats like you.
Have you applied your "analysis" to othe Texas pollsters? Out of state polling agencies watching this race?
I did not merely notice that the founder once worked for Democrats.

I pointed to a striking disparity in the cross-tabs, a brand-new polling organization with no electoral scorecard, methodology that is not meaningfully disclosed, opaque funding, and yes, also a founder whose political background is plainly partisan.

None of that proves the poll was fabricated. It does, however, provide several concrete reasons to treat it skeptically rather than blindly accepting the “nonpartisan” label.

also - thanks for a post finally about the topic and not about me
 

Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race​

The poll found the Austin Democrat with a commanding lead among independents and a surprising edge with non-college-educated voters, who have consistently favored Republicans

WASHINGTON — The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.



Awesome!!!
 
More and more Americans are recognizing the inherent evil of MAGA. Those around them are starting to recognize the problem.

Most people are good. I truly believe Good triumphs over evil.

axssvw.jpg
 
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Bottom line



Bottom line: the founder was a Dem strategist, so the GOP immediately cries "bias". Fine, PROVE IT BEYOND SPECULATION, SUSPICION, OPINION, SUPPOSITION AND CONJECTURE.
Until then, it's just sour grapes and smoke from magats like you.
Have you applied your "analysis" to othe Texas pollsters? Out of state polling agencies watching this race?
Talifreako will be a United States Senator from the great state of Texas when pigs fly.

All your bullshit gaslighting will never change it one iota.

Do you think John Cornyn was thrown out on his ass because the masses longed for someone more liberal than he?

Bank it.
 
I did not merely notice that the founder once worked for Democrats.

I pointed to a striking disparity in the cross-tabs, a brand-new polling organization with no electoral scorecard, methodology that is not meaningfully disclosed, opaque funding, and yes, also a founder whose political background is plainly partisan.

None of that proves the poll was fabricated. It does, however, provide several concrete reasons to treat it skeptically rather than blindly accepting the “nonpartisan” label.

also - thanks for a post finally about the topic and not about me
:palm: Okay, let's approach this from another angle.

Remember when you had to hand in a book report or term paper in high school? What was a mandated requirement was that they have references and bibliography, so that the teacher would know that you weren't just try to baffle them with bullshit.

On this site, if a person is making an analysis but provides no valid source documentation to support his assertions/declarations, then that person is just spouting OPINIONS, SUPPOSITION AND CONJECTURE .... as you did on Post #146 and Post #2 with no links.

So meet a simple burden of proof, then we can continue. If not, then I'm done with you as you would spout the last inane words.
 
Early polls are a dependable as horoscopes. They are for diversion and amusement. They do give you trends though. If a gap starts small and gets bigger you watch to see if it continues.
 
Early polls are a dependable as horoscopes. They are for diversion and amusement. They do give you trends though. If a gap starts small and gets bigger you watch to see if it continues.
Agreed. Polls are polls are polls .... until the election results start being tallied. That's why I got such a kick out of watching (Bush's Brain) Karl Rove have a hissy fit at Fox News when the results had Obama so far ahead that the election was called in his favor.
 
Early polls are a dependable as horoscopes. They are for diversion and amusement. They do give you trends though. If a gap starts small and gets bigger you watch to see if it continues.
It's the trends that are of value and why all political campaigns use them. Polls are snapshots in time, but those snapshots are valuable for indicating public concerns and the effectiveness of the campaign.
 
:palm: Okay, let's approach this from another angle.

Remember when you had to hand in a book report or term paper in high school? What was a mandated requirement was that they have references and bibliography, so that the teacher would know that you weren't just try to baffle them with bullshit.

On this site, if a person is making an analysis but provides no valid source documentation to support his assertions/declarations, then that person is just spouting OPINIONS, SUPPOSITION AND CONJECTURE .... as you did on Post #146 and Post #2 with no links.

So meet a simple burden of proof, then we can continue. If not, then I'm done with you as you would spout the last inane words.
You keep demanding citations for observations that are visible in the poll and the organization’s own public record.

The cross-tab disparity is in the poll itself. The company is new. It has no established election-day accuracy record. Its methodology and funding are not meaningfully disclosed. Its founder has an openly partisan political background.

Those are not inventions, and I have not claimed they prove the poll was fabricated. They are reasons to question how much confidence the poll deserves.

Your “book report” analogy actually works against you: a source can be cited and still be weak, conflicted, opaque or unproven. The entire point of analysis is to evaluate the quality of the source—not merely worship it because it exists.

You have answered none of the substantive concerns. You have simply demanded that skepticism meet a criminal-trial burden of proof, then threatened to leave when it does not.
 
You keep demanding citations for observations that are visible in the poll and the organization’s own public record.

The cross-tab disparity is in the poll itself. The company is new. It has no established election-day accuracy record. Its methodology and funding are not meaningfully disclosed. Its founder has an openly partisan political background.

Those are not inventions, and I have not claimed they prove the poll was fabricated. They are reasons to question how much confidence the poll deserves.

Your “book report” analogy actually works against you: a source can be cited and still be weak, conflicted, opaque or unproven. The entire point of analysis is to evaluate the quality of the source—not merely worship it because it exists.

You have answered none of the substantive concerns. You have simply demanded that skepticism meet a criminal-trial burden of proof, then threatened to leave when it does not.
So you have no valid source links to support your opinions, suppositions and conjecture. Just as I thought.

The chronology of the posts will always be your foil. Have fun getting approval of your BS from your circle jerk compadres and the grinning clown you see in the mirror. See you in a month or so.
 
So you have no valid source links to support your opinions, suppositions and conjecture. Just as I thought.

The chronology of the posts will always be your foil. Have fun getting approval of your BS from your circle jerk compadres and the grinning clown you see in the mirror. See you in a month or so.
Of course I have sources. But you have not even addressed the evidence already presented: the cross-tab disparity, the company’s lack of a polling track record, the limited methodological disclosure, and the partisan background of the person running it.

Those are all specific, verifiable points. You are free to argue that they do not matter. You could explain the cross-tabs, defend the methodology, show where the funding and sampling process are disclosed, or demonstrate why a brand-new polling organization with no election-day scorecard deserves immediate confidence.

Instead, you keep demanding links as though the existence of a citation automatically settles the argument, while refusing to engage with the substance already in front of you.

I have never claimed that these concerns prove the poll was fabricated. I said they are legitimate reasons for skepticism. You have repeatedly substituted insults and demands for a criminal-trial burden of proof rather than answering that argument.

So no, the problem is not that I have offered nothing. The problem is that you have answered nothing.

And you are free to leave. I am entirely comfortable letting readers judge the chronology and substance of the exchange for themselves. I raised specific concerns. You responded with name-calling, theatrical demands for citations, and no meaningful rebuttal.

The record is clear enough.
 
Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race
The poll found the Austin Democrat with a commanding lead among independents and a surprising edge with non-college-educated voters, who have consistently favored Republicans

WASHINGTON — The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.


Talarico leads Paxton by 3 in Fox News Poll

 
I did not merely notice that the founder once worked for Democrats.

I pointed to a striking disparity in the cross-tabs, a brand-new polling organization with no electoral scorecard, methodology that is not meaningfully disclosed, opaque funding, and yes, also a founder whose political background is plainly partisan.

None of that proves the poll was fabricated. It does, however, provide several concrete reasons to treat it skeptically rather than blindly accepting the “nonpartisan” label.

also - thanks for a post finally about the topic and not about me
A FOX news poll released today shows Talarico leading by 3 percent, so maybe this Texas Opinion Research Poll isn't as wildly crazy as you claim.
 
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