Democrat James Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race

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Cypress

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Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new poll of Texas’ U.S. Senate race​

The poll found the Austin Democrat with a commanding lead among independents and a surprising edge with non-college-educated voters, who have consistently favored Republicans

WASHINGTON — The latest survey of the U.S. Senate race from Texas Public Opinion Research shows Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton, 45% to 40%, marking the Austin state representative’s largest lead in any public poll taken during the general election period.


www.texastribune.org

Talarico leads Paxton by 5 points in new Texas Senate poll

The poll found the Austin Democrat with a commanding lead among independents and a surprising edge with non-college-educated voters, who have consistently favored Republicans.
www.texastribune.org www.texastribune.org
 
Ah yes, Texas Public Opinion Research—the reassuringly neutral-sounding polling outfit run by a former Democratic candidate and Texas Democratic Party strategist, with no meaningful public disclosure of who funds it.

But don’t worry. It says “nonpartisan” on the label.

Apparently all you need to become an objective research institution is a polished website, a generic name, and the confidence not to explain where the money comes from.

And naturally, its poll now shows Talarico winning non-college voters by nine points. The 21-point deficit he had with that same group in a legitimate poll is apparently no cause for concern. A casual 30-point swing is just what happens when the data finally becomes sufficiently nonpartisan.
 
zymurgy said:
Ah yes, Texas Public Opinion Research—the reassuringly neutral-sounding polling outfit run by a former Democratic candidate and Texas Democratic Party strategist, with no meaningful public disclosure of who funds it.

But don’t worry. It says “nonpartisan” on the label.

Apparently all you need to become an objective research institution is a polished website, a generic name, and the confidence not to explain where the money comes from.

And naturally, its poll now shows Talarico winning non-college voters by nine points. The 21-point deficit he had with that same group in a legitimate poll is apparently no cause for concern. A casual 30-point swing is just what happens when the data finally becomes sufficiently nonpartisan.
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:magagrin:

LOL
 
zymurgy said:
Ah yes, Texas Public Opinion Research—the reassuringly neutral-sounding polling outfit run by a former Democratic candidate and Texas Democratic Party strategist, with no meaningful public disclosure of who funds it.

But don’t worry. It says “nonpartisan” on the label.

Apparently all you need to become an objective research institution is a polished website, a generic name, and the confidence not to explain where the money comes from.

And naturally, its poll now shows Talarico winning non-college voters by nine points. The 21-point deficit he had with that same group in a legitimate poll is apparently no cause for concern. A casual 30-point swing is just what happens when the data finally becomes sufficiently nonpartisan.
Click to expand...
Wow, my thread must have really interested you given how quickly you scurried off to do Google and AI research.

It's true that this poll could be an outlier, all the other polls show a statistical dead heat.
 
Cypress said:
Wow, my thread must have really interested you given how quickly you scurried off to do Google and AI research.

It's true that this poll could be an outlier, all the other polls show a statistical dead heat.
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your constant lies and deception rarely give me any real interest
 
Cypress said:
You must be from Texas and full blown MAGA, given how triggered this thread made you, and the speed of the frantic AI research you scurried off to do.
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I Notice you never defend the poll, its methodology, its sponsor, or its absurd results. You are a dork

Perhaps you still trust the Des Moines Register poll that predicted Harris would beat Trump in Iowa as well

Getting angry because someone checked your nonsense when it seems clearly wrong. LMFAO

Here is a thought: use some of the million tools at your disposal to check your own bullshit before barging in here with shit on your hands and smearing it all over the walls.
 
A polling firm hired by a campaign is producing advocacy research. Its client wants a favorable headline, a fundraising tool, or a political narrative—not necessarily the most accurate prediction.

That is fundamentally different from an established polling organization whose reputation depends on accurately measuring the electorate. Both can be wrong, but only one has an obvious financial incentive to give its sponsor the result it wants.

Then these outfits hide behind phony, official-sounding names meant to make campaign propaganda resemble independent research.

Well, one of us keeps posting nonsense, and the other keeps noticing. Apparently, being noticed is what really triggered the OP.

And how dare I use search tools and modern technology to shine a light on the shit they all keep smearing across the wall.
 
zymurgy said:
Ah yes, Texas Public Opinion Research—the reassuringly neutral-sounding polling outfit run by a former Democratic candidate and Texas Democratic Party strategist, with no meaningful public disclosure of who funds it.

But don’t worry. It says “nonpartisan” on the label.

Apparently all you need to become an objective research institution is a polished website, a generic name, and the confidence not to explain where the money comes from.

And naturally, its poll now shows Talarico winning non-college voters by nine points. The 21-point deficit he had with that same group in a legitimate poll is apparently no cause for concern. A casual 30-point swing is just what happens when the data finally becomes sufficiently nonpartisan.
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Doesn't seem credible to you, does it, that Texas voters would turn their backs on such a reliable scumbag?
 
martin said:
Doesn't seem credible to you, does it, that Texas voters would turn their backs on such a reliable scumbag?
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My point was about the pollster’s credibility, funding, methodology, and implausible results. Your reply addresses none of that.

The man you call a “scumbag” just won his primary in a state that leans Republican, so clearly plenty of Texas voters have not rejected him. We will see what happens in the general election.

But a 30-point swing among non-college voters from a more credible polling firm is exactly the kind of result that should make informed people question the poll—not attack the person who noticed it.
 
Leftists need to be very careful in putting too much faith in a Talarico win.

The win, at this point would be fantastic and i think Dem wins in the future can and will happen but right now the the win i see is the forcing of Magats to spend a crap ton of money to defend this, when they should not have to.

Remember Texas is a notoriously low voter turnout State generally. It takes a lot to motivate people to get up and when it gets closer to the election date and if indeed it looks like Talarico can win, i think you will see unusually high voter turnout for a Midterm, as a Talarico win is, imo, enough to get the the magat voters out. Those people are not planning to vote now and will not show up in polls but will likely show up on election day if they think the 'dem socialist' might win.
 
Cypress said:
The odds on favorite has to be Paxton.
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Yup.

There are probably more voters in the State who really DNGAF about the midterms and Paxton, but can be roused to vote when the war drum is beat that a Dem might actually win.

That is why Beto O'Rourke lost to Ted Cruz in my estimation.

People were not roused to vote for Ted Cruz in a mid term election with typical low turnout, but because it became clear a 'Dem might win', suddenly that became a massive high turn out election. The number of votes Beto got beat EVERY SINGLE PRIOR GOP Texas Senate winner, including Cruz's prior numbers.

But Beto getting mass support roused the sleeping magat base to rise up and vote Cruz.

While i hope Talarico can pull it off, my betting odds say place the bets on Paxton.
 
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