Guno צְבִי
We fight, We win, Am Yisrael Chai
The last time the United States displayed such incompetence and undermined its credibility so substantially on the world stage was the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
In 38 days of war, beginning on Feb. 28, the United States and Israel decapitated Iran’s leadership, and pummeled its missile and drone arsenals, defense industry, air defenses and navy. The Iranian regime was on its back and in disarray, and CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper sought to continue another 10 to 14 days of attacks.
But then, Trump agreed to a ceasefire, and the regime in Tehran was saved.
It marked the beginning of the erosion of American leverage over Iran to get a decent deal. Iran was less likely to make concessions when the bombing stopped than it was during the war. Indeed, its leaders didn’t even abide by the ceasefire.
Trump conditioned the ceasefire on the “complete, immediate and safe opening” of the Strait of Hormuz, but Tehran didn’t clear mines; often attacked U.S. bases and energy facilities in Arab neighbors; and demanded that it control and get fees for any ships transiting, making the strait far from open. The U.S. military did ensure that some non-Iranian tankers got through, and Trump imposed on April 13 a blockade on Iranian ports, which was onerous but overhyped, and didn’t force Tehran to make concessions.
It was bad enough that Trump did not hit Iran hard for these violations. Worse yet, he undermined U.S. credibility and deterrence by not enforcing a specific longstanding U.S. policy to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, as my colleague John Hannah recently explained.
Former President Jimmy Carter declared in 1980 that no power could control the Persian Gulf, but Trump effectively permitted it.
An emboldened Iran—and everyone else—now knows it retains tremendous leverage by dramatically impacting the global economy when it wants by stopping the flow of oil and liquid natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz, without significant consequence.
Trump further undermined U.S. leverage by conceding Iran’s effective veto over Lebanon. He publicly expressed his concern that the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict would stand in the way of a deal with Iran, as Tehran had warned. When Hezbollah fired on Israeli towns, he tried to stop Israel from responding. He then doubled down by restraining Israel’s retaliation when Iran fired missiles at Israel. Instead of giving in to Iranian threats, Trump would have enhanced his position with Iran by supporting Israel’s self-defense.
‘Epic Fury’ ends with a flop
The last time the United States displayed such incompetence and undermined its credibility so substantially on the world stage was the botched withdrawal from Afghanistan.
