From the end of November to mid-December, below-normal temperatures stretched from Western Canada to California, leading to increased demand for natural gas for heating. In the first three weeks of December, natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors in the Pacific Northwest and California combined increased by 23% from the second half of November, and in the electric power sector, natural gas consumption increased 14%, according to data from Point Logic.
Natural gas supply did not keep pace with the increased demand. Net natural gas flows from Canada to the western region, which relies heavily on supply from other parts of the United States and Canada, were down by 4% in the first three weeks of December compared with the second half of November, and natural gas deliveries from the Rocky Mountains into the Pacific Northwest were 9% lower over the same period.
Reduced pipeline capacity because of maintenance in West Texas led to lower westbound natural gas flows, putting upward pressure on Southern California natural gas prices. In addition, Pacific region natural gas storage inventories, which were 25% below year-ago levels and 30% below the five-year average as of December 16, also contributed to increasing prices. In Northern California, PG&E’s injections to rebuild natural gas inventories have not kept pace with previous summers.
While daily natural gas spot prices at PG&E Citygate and Malin reached their highest levels in more than 20 years, SoCal Citygate and Sumas recorded higher prices within the past four years. The natural gas spot price at SoCal Citygate reached an historic high of $144.00/MMBtu on February 12, 2021, because of cold weather and production disruptions in Texas. On March 1, 2019, the natural gas spot price at Sumas averaged $161.33/MMBtu because of supply constraints and unseasonably cold temperatures. An October 2018 explosion on Westcoast Energy’s BC Pipeline led to higher prices at Sumas during the winter of 2018–2019. On November 15, 2018, the Sumas natural gas spot price reached $69.25/MMBt