80% have few to no symptoms. What does "few... symptoms" mean? Well, it means 80% will not need medical treatment, and 20% will need medical treatment, preferably hospitalization. A quarter of that 20%, or about 5%, will need intensive care. If that 5% do not get intensive care, then many will die.
The R0 of this disease is about 2.4. That would mean we can expect 25% to 75% of the population to get the disease if containment has failed... CONTAINMENT HAS FAILED. So means between 16 and 50 million needing hospitalization, and between 4 and 12.5 million needing intensive care. Modified containment could slow the spread, meaning the same hospital bed could be used by up to 25 different patients over time. That means we would "only" need more than 160,000 intensive care beds at one time, which might actually be possible.
It is good that private sector tests are coming online, but it is too late for containment. We needed the government tests to contain this and save hundreds of thousands of lives. That did not happen. Assuming there are no time machines, the private sector tests are too late to keep us safe from the virus, but it is in time to slow the virus down and give the hospitals time to reuse beds.
Or maybe it is just a myth... And trump will ride in on a unicorn and make everything OK. But, in the REAL world, this has already been badly mishandled, and there is nothing we can do about that now.
The R0 of this disease is about 2.4. That would mean we can expect 25% to 75% of the population to get the disease if containment has failed... CONTAINMENT HAS FAILED. So means between 16 and 50 million needing hospitalization, and between 4 and 12.5 million needing intensive care. Modified containment could slow the spread, meaning the same hospital bed could be used by up to 25 different patients over time. That means we would "only" need more than 160,000 intensive care beds at one time, which might actually be possible.
It is good that private sector tests are coming online, but it is too late for containment. We needed the government tests to contain this and save hundreds of thousands of lives. That did not happen. Assuming there are no time machines, the private sector tests are too late to keep us safe from the virus, but it is in time to slow the virus down and give the hospitals time to reuse beds.
Or maybe it is just a myth... And trump will ride in on a unicorn and make everything OK. But, in the REAL world, this has already been badly mishandled, and there is nothing we can do about that now.
