The US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border — what comes next?

Guno צְבִי

Guno צְבִי

We fight, We win, Am Yisrael Chai
Ontario, the most populous province with a significant manufacturing sector, has been hardest hit by the auto and steel tariffs.

Several Ontario auto parts and assembly plants have announced layoffs and production cuts, and the province is estimated to have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs since early 2025.

The US economy is much larger and the impact of Canada's counter-tariffs won't be as stark.

But some states will feel the pain of Canada's retaliation more than others, with tariffs levied on C$28bn worth of US goods from steel to furniture, cosmetics and toilet paper, as of 8 September.

According to data by Statistics Canada, the swing state of Ohio will be hardest hit, with C$3.2bn - or 12% - of its exports soon to be tariffed by Canada, followed by Illinois and Pennsylvania.

For Ohio, it's the tax on steel that will particularly hurt, as well as the tax on laundry machines. In Illinois, where farm equipment giant John Deere is based, it will be the new tariffs on farm and construction equipment.

Derek Holt, an economist with Scotiabank, noted that Canada's counter-tariffs appear to be "very deliberately oriented" towards some swing states that could decide the US balance of power in the upcoming midterm elections.

www.yahoo.com

The US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border — what comes next?

The US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
 
I love how this dispute highlights again, how inept and stupid Trump is.

The claim NOW by the Trump team is that the USMCA he negotiated and claimed was the 'best trade deal in history for the US' had to be thrown out because Canada was abusing it and not following it. They had to SWITCH to that after Trump first said it was a 'bad deal and wondered who negotiated it' when they realized that made Trump look bad and weak, and a terrible negotiator.

So now, if indeed it is true (it is not) that the deal was good and Canada was just not following it, the remedy for that is not to tear up the deal AGAIN and demand another deal (Canada then can abuse) and is instead to use the mechanism that EXISTS within the deal to demonstrate they are abusing it, demand they comply and seek penalties.

Of course Trump and his admin won't do that as they lose these cases more than they win them. Meaning they are more often full of shit.
 
The U.S. economy is roughly twelve times Canada’s.


Bilateral goods-and-services trade was about $880 billion in 2025.


That is a large relationship, but it is a much bigger slice of Canada’s economy than of America’s.


Canada sends roughly 72–77% of its merchandise exports to the United States. The U.S. sends a far smaller share of its total exports to Canada.


Canadian exports to the U.S. are commonly cited as on the order of 15–20% of Canadian GDP in headline terms; value-added analyses put the truly exposed slice lower, but still material.


Any given tariff therefore hits a larger share of Canadian output and employment than of U.S. output.


Model estimates of the current late-2026 round (50% tariffs on a limited slice of goods, plus Canadian retaliation) are modest at the national level: on the order of a few tenths of a percentage point off Canadian GDP, smaller still for the U.S.


A full collapse of the USMCA/CUSMA framework would be far more damaging, especially for Canada—on the order of a 1% GDP hit and a higher risk of recession in some forecasts—while the U.S. would also lose, just a smaller percentage of a much larger economy.


The United States would win.


Not because tariffs are free or because Canada has no cards to play. Because the fight is asymmetric.


Canada sends roughly three-quarters of its merchandise exports to the U.S.


The U.S. does not send anything close to that share of its exports to Canada.


The U.S. economy is about twelve times larger. A tariff that is a sectoral crisis in Ontario is a rounding error in U.S. GDP.


www.oxfordeconomics.com

Trade war flare-up will cost Canada

Canada’s proposed “dollar-for-dollar” retaliatory tariffs on the US after the collapse of trade negotiations will further dampen economic growth.
www.oxfordeconomics.com www.oxfordeconomics.com
 
Canada is already finding new trading partners, They are holding back from massive moves because they know Trumps stupidity is temporary. He will likely have a Dem house curbing his insanity in Nov. Then in 2028,,Trump cannot tun again, assuming he is alive.
 
Nordberg said:
Canada is already finding new trading partners, They are holding back from massive moves because they know Trumps stupidity is temporary. He will likely have a Dem house curbing his insanity in Nov. Then in 2028,,Trump cannot tun again, assuming he is alive.
Click to expand...

Is that so, Nerdsperg?
 
Guno צְבִי said:
Ontario, the most populous province with a significant manufacturing sector, has been hardest hit by the auto and steel tariffs.

Several Ontario auto parts and assembly plants have announced layoffs and production cuts, and the province is estimated to have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs since early 2025.

The US economy is much larger and the impact of Canada's counter-tariffs won't be as stark.

But some states will feel the pain of Canada's retaliation more than others, with tariffs levied on C$28bn worth of US goods from steel to furniture, cosmetics and toilet paper, as of 8 September.

According to data by Statistics Canada, the swing state of Ohio will be hardest hit, with C$3.2bn - or 12% - of its exports soon to be tariffed by Canada, followed by Illinois and Pennsylvania.

For Ohio, it's the tax on steel that will particularly hurt, as well as the tax on laundry machines. In Illinois, where farm equipment giant John Deere is based, it will be the new tariffs on farm and construction equipment.

Derek Holt, an economist with Scotiabank, noted that Canada's counter-tariffs appear to be "very deliberately oriented" towards some swing states that could decide the US balance of power in the upcoming midterm elections.

www.yahoo.com

The US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border — what comes next?

The US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border.
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com
Click to expand...
What comes next is canada can suck it
 
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