Unemployment is 3.9 percent

[Damocles]

Just a crappy economy.

So what if unemployment is 3.9%? The U30 is meaningless on its own, that's why politicians cite it so often. The employment rate in the US has remained flat at around 57 to 58%. That means that if the unemployment rate has fallen, fewer people are looking for work, not that more people are working.

I would posit that a major reason for this is that unemployment and welfare benefits at the moment are quite generous and amount to somewhere (depending on a person's circumstances) the equivalent of $20 and $30 an hour pay. Given that, why would anyone take a job for less pay than they can get sitting around doing nothing?

Don't post the truth, Cypress wants to believe that the shortage of truck drivers keeping shelves empty and the shortage of workers at restaurants means so many folks quit to work at Amazon that there are just no more folks to fill the jobs.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

Don't post the truth, Cypress wants to believe that the shortage of truck drivers keeping shelves empty and the shortage of workers at restaurants means so many folks quit to work at Amazon that there are just no more folks to fill the jobs.

And here I thought they quit so they could sit in a coffee shop using the free wi fi to blog about important stuff like organic food and essential oils on the internet to become millionaires...

 

[Concart]

As the older ones retire, middle ones move up the ladder into their vacated places. That leaves room below them for the younger workers. It seems to be the low-wage jobs that are crying for workers... restaurants, retail, hospitality, unskilled labor, etc.

They don't know what the labor force participation rate is. Go ahead, ask one of them. They haven't a clue. Here are some crosstabs on the rate. First, the white male labor participation rate has been falling since the 1960s. The reason the rate stayed as high as it was is because women entered the workforce. Now, many are leaving, and teenagers are no longer getting part time jobs. So the rate was naturally going to go down, especially with the boomers retiring in droves. The rate peaked around 200 and has been steadily dropping ever since. It took a large drop at the beginning of the pandemic, and is slowly recovering, it is actually up 1/2 a percentage point in the first year of the Biden administration.

The rate at this point is relatively meaningless. My 100 year old father is not looking for a job.

 

[BartenderElite]

Don't post the truth, Cypress wants to believe that the shortage of truck drivers keeping shelves empty and the shortage of workers at restaurants means so many folks quit to work at Amazon that there are just no more folks to fill the jobs.

No one is saying the economy is great. But it's better than when Trump left office.

Which is how it has gone in these election cycles. Bush Sr. left a Recession - and then we had the Clinton years, which any rational American would admit they'd prefer. Total prosperity.

Then GW Bush left office on the heels of a crash; the economy was in shambles. I don't think anyone would claim Obama's economy was great or anything like Clinton's, but it was the greatest & most prolonged period of recovery we have had as a nation.

Then Trump took over, and the economy crashed again. Once again, a Republican left a shambles for his Democrat successor. And the economy has improved over the course of the past year. Biden has done a solid job.

I'd prefer it to be more mixed, and to know that the economy would be good under Republicans as well. But that simply hasn't been the case in modern times. Republicans crash economies, and Democrats bring them back.

 

[Celticguy]

As the older ones retire, middle ones move up the ladder into their vacated places. That leaves room below them for the younger workers. It seems to be the low-wage jobs that are crying for workers... restaurants, retail, hospitality, unskilled labor, etc.

explaining the 8+% black unemployment rate

 

[Concart]

Don't post the truth, Cypress wants to believe that the shortage of truck drivers keeping shelves empty and the shortage of workers at restaurants means so many folks quit to work at Amazon that there are just no more folks to fill the jobs.

Total oversimplification. Restaurant workers are not willing to work in a risky environment for low pay. And there are plenty of entry level jobs elsewhere, so they take those. This is not rocket science. The unemployment rate is what it is. 3.9% The lowest paying riskiest jobs (with respect to catching Covid) are restaurant jobs. Why would anyone work a restaurant job when they can work at home for 25 or 30% more? Seriously. In fact, U-6 is down to 7.3%. Benefits for unemployed people are no more now than they were before the pandemic. That is a red herring. It's horseshit.

 

[T. A. Gardner]

No one is saying the economy is great. But it's better than when Trump left office.

Which is how it has gone in these election cycles. Bush Sr. left a Recession - and then we had the Clinton years, which any rational American would admit they'd prefer. Total prosperity.

Then GW Bush left office on the heels of a crash; the economy was in shambles. I don't think anyone would claim Obama's economy was great or anything like Clinton's, but it was the greatest & most prolonged period of recovery we have had as a nation.

Then Trump took over, and the economy crashed again. Once again, a Republican left a shambles for his Democrat successor. And the economy has improved over the course of the past year. Biden has done a solid job.

I'd prefer it to be more mixed, and to know that the economy would be good under Republicans as well. But that simply hasn't been the case in modern times. Republicans crash economies, and Democrats bring them back.

I see it differently.

Reagan spent heavily but ended the Cold War. Bush I didn't really take advantage of the peace that followed. Clinton on the other hand, after a bad first two years, figured out how to work with Republicans and was able to massively cut government spending, force people off welfare and into working, and by the end of his second term got to a balanced budget.

Bush II ended up in another war-- not of his making-- and the economy moved along okay. The crash at the end came right after Obama was elected...

Obama had a mediocre 8 years in office. The economy limped along at best.

Trump got elected and the economy picked up right until Fauci plague came along and crashed it. That's hardly Trump's fault.

Now we have Biden in office and he's fucking things up as badly as Carter did. The economy is a trainwreck. If you can remember back to the Carter years, the stock market and investment accounts were booming then too, but the wider economy was absolutely fucked. That is, the rich got (and get) richer, while the not-so-rich and poor get screwed.

What I see as the problem is Democrats are generally inclined not to work with Republicans at all. Clinton was the exception. On the other hand, Republicans are becoming less and less inclined to work with Democrats. I doubt a Clinton-Republican cooperation is possible today and most of that is on the Democrats, just as it has been for decades.

 

[BartenderElite]

I see it differently.

Reagan spent heavily but ended the Cold War. Bush I didn't really take advantage of the peace that followed. Clinton on the other hand, after a bad first two years, figured out how to work with Republicans and was able to massively cut government spending, force people off welfare and into working, and by the end of his second term got to a balanced budget.

Bush II ended up in another war-- not of his making-- and the economy moved along okay. The crash at the end came right after Obama was elected...

Obama had a mediocre 8 years in office. The economy limped along at best.

Trump got elected and the economy picked up right until Fauci plague came along and crashed it. That's hardly Trump's fault.

Now we have Biden in office and he's fucking things up as badly as Carter did. The economy is a trainwreck. If you can remember back to the Carter years, the stock market and investment accounts were booming then too, but the wider economy was absolutely fucked. That is, the rich got (and get) richer, while the not-so-rich and poor get screwed.

What I see as the problem is Democrats are generally inclined not to work with Republicans at all. Clinton was the exception. On the other hand, Republicans are becoming less and less inclined to work with Democrats. I doubt a Clinton-Republican cooperation is possible today and most of that is on the Democrats, just as it has been for decades.

The economy crashed BEFORE Obama was elected. Why fabricate that? It's easy to check.

I agree that the parties need to cooperate. But it is 100% laughable that "most of that is on the Democrats." Republicans have come out & stated that their job is to be obstructionist.

You're just making excuses for Republicans. It's not a real discussion.

 

[Into the Night]

And isn't gas supposed to be $5/gallon now?

It is in some places.

Avgas is now $8 in some places as well.

 

[Into the Night]

It's called "retirement." You've no doubt heard about the Boomers. We are all retiring now.

Speak for yourself. I am gainfully employed (at my own company, no less!).

 

[Into the Night]

There are more millennials than boomers.

Yes. The General Strike is widening day by day. That doesn't show up on any unemployement figure.

 

[Into the Night]

No facts for these schmucks!

We were actually in a recession shortly *before* the pandemic hit in early 2020. According to Reuters, it was also one of the shortest.

https://www.reuters.com/business/recession-ended-april-2020-making-it-shortest-record-2021-07-19/

Fake News. The fear mongering over the Sniffles began in 2019, along with the shutdowns and lockouts by Democrats, mostly in 2020.
That was not a recession. It was the beginning of the depression, which is still with many places still under restrictions and lockdowns.

Many of those businesses destroyed by this fear mongering will never come back. Many of the people thrown out of work because of it will not get those jobs back.
Now you have an ever widening general strike.

 

[Into the Night]

That doesn't have anything to do with Boomers retiring in large numbers.

Most had already retired.

 

[Into the Night]

Sure it does. Millennials should be filling in those jobs. No low participation rate.

What jobs? Many are gone for good.

 

[Into the Night]

The employment rate steadily increased from 57.5% in 1/21 to 59.5% in 12/21.

No thanks to Biden or the Democrats.

 

[Into the Night]

As the older ones retire, middle ones move up the ladder into their vacated places. That leaves room below them for the younger workers. It seems to be the low-wage jobs that are crying for workers... restaurants, retail, hospitality, unskilled labor, etc.

Who is John Galt?

 

[Into the Night]

And here I thought they quit so they could sit in a coffee shop using the free wi fi to blog about important stuff like organic food and essential oils on the internet to become millionaires...

The coffee shop is closed in many areas.

 

[Into the Night]

They don't know what the labor force participation rate is. Go ahead, ask one of them. They haven't a clue. Here are some crosstabs on the rate. First, the white male labor participation rate has been falling since the 1960s. The reason the rate stayed as high as it was is because women entered the workforce. Now, many are leaving, and teenagers are no longer getting part time jobs. So the rate was naturally going to go down, especially with the boomers retiring in droves. The rate peaked around 200 and has been steadily dropping ever since. It took a large drop at the beginning of the pandemic, and is slowly recovering, it is actually up 1/2 a percentage point in the first year of the Biden administration.

The rate at this point is relatively meaningless. My 100 year old father is not looking for a job.

No thanks to Biden or the Democrats.

 

[Into the Night]

No one is saying the economy is great. But it's better than when Trump left office.

The DEMOCRATS crashed the economy.

Which is how it has gone in these election cycles. Bush Sr. left a Recession - and then we had the Clinton years, which any rational American would admit they'd prefer. Total prosperity.

Low employment, shortages, and a general strike widening day by day is not prosperity.

Then GW Bush left office on the heels of a crash; the economy was in shambles. I don't think anyone would claim Obama's economy was great or anything like Clinton's, but it was the greatest & most prolonged period of recovery we have had as a nation.

No, it wasn't. It was a four year depression. Inflation is not profit.

Then Trump took over, and the economy crashed again.

The DEMOCRATS crashed it.

Once again, a Republican left a shambles for his Democrat successor.

No, the DEMOCRATS left a shambles. It is DEMOCRATS that shut down the economy by fear mongering over The Sniffles.

And the economy has improved over the course of the past year. Biden has done a solid job.

Biden did not have anything to do with States that were opening up their economies.

I'd prefer it to be more mixed, and to know that the economy would be good under Republicans as well. But that simply hasn't been the case in modern times. Republicans crash economies, and Democrats bring them back.

Inversion fallacy.

 

[Into the Night]

Total oversimplification. Restaurant workers are not willing to work in a risky environment for low pay. And there are plenty of entry level jobs elsewhere, so they take those. This is not rocket science. The unemployment rate is what it is. 3.9% The lowest paying riskiest jobs (with respect to catching Covid) are restaurant jobs. Why would anyone work a restaurant job when they can work at home for 25 or 30% more? Seriously. In fact, U-6 is down to 7.3%. Benefits for unemployed people are no more now than they were before the pandemic. That is a red herring. It's horseshit.

You deny science. You also deny that there are plenty of restaurant workers in free States. You are also denying the Covid payments, the additional money for unemployment claims, the additional money for welfare, etc.

Socialism doesn't work.