Virus nearly done virusing in Japan

Darth Omar said:
To whatever extent masks actually slow the rate of transmission that translates into slowing down the race to herd immunity.

You ‘want’ as many people as possible to get infected because infection confers immunity.
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Dumb comment.


From your test:

21.4 % of those individualswho tested seronegative became seropositive and seroreversion was found in 12.2 % ofinitially seropositive participants. 81.1% of IgM positive cases at first testing becameIgM negative in approximately one month.
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Second, IgM positivity is short-lived, typically turning negative over one month.Third, seroreversion was not infrequent, seen in 12% of participants over the one-monthspan between tests. This suggests that serological testing may significantlyunderestimate past COVID-19 infections, particularly when applied to an asymptomaticpopulation.
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This study has several limitations. First, the cohort was a sampling of a single largecompany in Tokyo and not of the population, in general. Second, detailed medicalhistories and behavioral patterns of each employee were not obtained. Suchinformation would have been helpful in understanding the role of cross-exposure andthe factors associated with reduced fatality. Third, paired testing was separated by amonth. Closer intervals may have yielded more granular insights into the immunologicalresponses to SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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There is no herd immunity. What this study shows, is that asymptomatic individuals can indeed spread Covid.
 
AProudLefty said:
They are not being quiet. You found the paper. :laugh:

Anyway, the source says more tests are needed and that herd immunity was a possibility.
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Actually, it proves that there is no herd immunity for Covid. Notwithstanding the claim that it is 'possible'. It can't be possible if nobody retains the antibodies.
 
AProudLefty said:
That's fine. Until then, wait.
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Japan wants very badly to host the Olympics in 2021. They have preordered massive doses of vaccine and plan to vaccinate their people. They also plan to cover the cost of adverse reactions to the vaccines. This plan does not sound like a country who has herd immunity.
 
Phantasmal said:
Japan wants very badly to host the Olympics in 2021. They have preordered massive doses of vaccine and plan to vaccinate their people. They also plan to cover the cost of adverse reactions to the vaccines. This plan does not sound like a country who has herd immunity.
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Holy fuck, here comes Doc Doris with her two yen!
 
Althea said:
Dumb comment.


From your test:









There is no herd immunity. What this study shows, is that asymptomatic individuals can indeed spread Covid.
Click to expand...

There are no categorical statements to be made about a *novel* virus. That’s dumb.

"This suggests that serological testing may significantly
underestimate past COVID-19 infections, particularly when applied to an asymptomatic population." [OP link]
___________

*Something* has to explain Japan. If it’s not herd immunity, what is it?

The study’s authors were forced to leave open the possibility of herd immunity.
 
Darth Omar said:
There are no categorical statements to be made about a *novel* virus. That’s dumb.

"This suggests that serological testing may significantly
underestimate past COVID-19 infections, particularly when applied to an asymptomatic population." [OP link]
___________

*Something* has to explain Japan. If it’s not herd immunity, what is it?

The study’s authors were forced to leave open the possibility of herd immunity.
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Perhaps you should read your link?

I highlighted the admitted shortcoming in the test. Overwhelmingly, the study proves that there cannot be herd immunity without a vaccine.


'Possibility' is not something that you want to see in a scientific study.

I'm looking for, at the very least, 'probability'.
 
Althea said:
Perhaps you should read your link?

I highlighted the admitted shortcoming in the test. Overwhelmingly, the study proves that there cannot be herd immunity without a vaccine.


'Possibility' is not something that you want to see in a scientific study.

I'm looking for, at the very least, 'probability'.
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When you find ‘the perfect study’ with no shortcomings please point me to it.

I read my link and found this:

"During this time, businesses, restaurants, and transportation were kept open, and public life continued relatively unabated. Nevertheless, the second wave peaked and subsided on its own... the possibility of herd immunity
should be considered." [OP link]

Sounds like some *scientists* rejecting your categorical statement on herd immunity.

Also, here in the states we have seen at least two waves peak and subside on their own. The fancy term for on their own is ‘inexplicably: IOW, no one knows exactly why they subsided—they just did.

Spare the ‘herd mentality’ explanations of masks and mitigation because they don’t correlate. The Sun Belt peaked and subsided because _____?

Why?
 
Darth Omar said:
When you find ‘the perfect study’ with no shortcomings please point me to it.

I read my link and found this:

"During this time, businesses, restaurants, and transportation were kept open, and public life continued relatively unabated. Nevertheless, the second wave peaked and subsided on its own... the possibility of herd immunity
should be considered." [OP link]

Sounds like some *scientists* rejecting your categorical statement on herd immunity.

Also, here in the states we have seen at least two waves peak and subside on their own. The fancy term for on their own is ‘inexplicably: IOW, no one knows exactly why they subsided—they just did.

Spare the ‘herd mentality’ explanations of masks and mitigation because they don’t correlate. The Sun Belt peaked and subsided because _____?

Why?
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Do you see the word "possibility" there?

Also: "Given the temporal
correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19
cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated. Sequential
testing for serological response against COVID-19 is useful for understanding the
dynamics of COVID-19 infection at the population-level."
 
AProudLefty said:
Do you see the word "possibility" there?

Also: "Given the temporal
correlation between the rise in seropositivity and the decrease in reported COVID-19
cases that occurred without a shut-down, herd immunity may be implicated. Sequential
testing for serological response against COVID-19 is useful for understanding the
dynamics of COVID-19 infection at the population-level."
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Yes I saw the word possibility lol.

It’s precisely my point. Sweden, Japan, NYC all need an explanation beyond grasping the first thing out of the air that conforms to the conventional ‘wisdom’.

The most plausible explanation is herd immunity until it can be *definitively* ruled out and it hasn’t been. In fact, it’s going in the opposite direction.
 
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Darth Omar said:
Yes I saw the word possibility lol.

It’s precisely my point. Sweden, Japan, NYC all need an explanation beyond grasping the first thing out of the air that conforms to the conventional ‘wisdom’.

The most plausible explanation is herd immunity until it can be *definitively* ruled out and it hasn’t been. In fact, it’s going in the open direction.
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Yep. More testing is needed.
 
Darth Omar said:
When you find ‘the perfect study’ with no shortcomings please point me to it.

I read my link and found this:

"During this time, businesses, restaurants, and transportation were kept open, and public life continued relatively unabated. Nevertheless, the second wave peaked and subsided on its own... the possibility of herd immunity
should be considered." [OP link]

Sounds like some *scientists* rejecting your categorical statement on herd immunity.

Also, here in the states we have seen at least two waves peak and subside on their own. The fancy term for on their own is ‘inexplicably: IOW, no one knows exactly why they subsided—they just did.

Spare the ‘herd mentality’ explanations of masks and mitigation because they don’t correlate. The Sun Belt peaked and subsided because _____?

Why?
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I'm not interested in your cherry picked snippets that offer speculation. I'm interested in the admission that the study was flawed, and herd immunity simply doesn't occur due to the fleeting nature of the antibodies in the blood.

You offered a study that proves your assertions are nonsense.

Something we've been telling you for months.
 
Phantasmal said:
Japan wants very badly to host the Olympics in 2021. They have preordered massive doses of vaccine and plan to vaccinate their people. They also plan to cover the cost of adverse reactions to the vaccines. This plan does not sound like a country who has herd immunity.
Click to expand...
Ahhhh... thus the 'study'. Thanks for the pertinent info. The study even admits that it means little. They didn't study Japanese society as a whole. They cherry picked young healthy people who represent a tiny segment of Japanese society, who all worked in a separated space.

They did absolutely no background checks to determine genetic disposition to any illnesses.
 
Darth Omar said:
To whatever extent masks actually slow the rate of transmission that translates into slowing down the race to herd immunity.

You ‘want’ as many people as possible to get infected because infection confers immunity.
Click to expand...

Don’t understand why you are still pushing the herd immunity there “DO,” as Fauci lectured Paul yesterday, estimates conclude it would take a 77% infection rate to attain a herd immunity, currently the US rate is around 20%, with 200,000+ dead, imagine the dead Americans if we went with a herd approach approach

Without a vaccine, herd immunity is a fantasy, and please, don’t bring up Sweden, it hasn’t worked there either
 
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