Whose sock is this?
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again.
- Thread starter Cypress
- Start date
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی
Oil futures prices reflect market expectations for supply and demand at the contract’s delivery date (September 2026, about five months out), not the strait’s real-time status.
The strait is effectively closed (or at a near-standstill) to commercial shipping. It has been disrupted since late February 2026 due to a regional security/naval situation involving Iran. Live trackers show traffic at near-zero to 10% of normal (60 ships/day normally; recent days have seen single-digit transits). Oil throughput is under 2% of normal, with 45–150+ vessels stranded or backed up. Selective/conditional passages exist in some reports, but they are commercially unviable for most tankers due to extreme war-risk insurance costs (up 8–16x) and heightened risks.
Shipping data contradicts political claims of reopening.
Near-term/spot oil prices have spiked precisely because of the disruption. The strait carries ~20–21% of global oil and LNG trade. This has driven Brent to ~$95 and WTI to ~$96 (up 30–50%+ from pre-crisis levels around $65–72), with some production shut-ins in the Middle East.
Jade Dragon
And I'm the one that jaded you.
Probably Legion switching tactics after limits were placed on discussions.
That's some good logic. I have him and most of his socks on ignore, but that one slipped through. I don't think it's ever posted since I joined JPP almost 6 years ago.
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Jade Dragon
And I'm the one that jaded you.
It was created in 2010 and recently had a discussion of theirs bumped from 2018. So, it's been active before. It's the most obvious troll. @christiefan915 even noted they don't seem to know or understand the Quran. Some Islamic extremist.
@Guno צְבִי no doubt. Or the Douche Duck.
The good news is that the Iranians can only play this game so far before the world unites to forcibly opening the waterway...which would require control of a sizable portion of Iran. If they're going to do that, then why not unite to take the brass ring in Tehran and Iran's major Gulf port cities?
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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
سپاه پاسداران انقلاب اسلامی
September futures indicate the market’s bet that the Hormuz disruption will be temporary and resolved well before September delivery, not that the strait is open today. Oil prices remain highly sensitive to any updates on ceasefires, traffic data, or escalations; the situation is fluid and geopolitically driven.
QP!
Verified User
^^ the guy who cries every time I use AI to provide facts or reports to call out his bullshit is now using AI to support his claims
QP!
Verified User
On this topic the Strait at no point has been entirely closed and that IS NOT the claim. At its most choked Iranian oil was getting to China and a few others.
The point is that it is closed to commerce unless you get iran sign off and pay them if they demand it.
So pointing out a ship here or there getting thru is not proof of anything. Well armed war ships will always be able to go thru if they prepare properly.
None of that means commerce is open again.
The point is that it is closed to commerce unless you get iran sign off and pay them if they demand it.
So pointing out a ship here or there getting thru is not proof of anything. Well armed war ships will always be able to go thru if they prepare properly.
None of that means commerce is open again.
T. A. Gardner
Serial Thread Killer
gfm7175
Jesus is LORD!
Lie. I told you that relying on Google and AI is outsourcing your thinking. Stop lying, Q-tip.
He asked for information directly from the source (the shipping company itself), not from Google or AI.
Stop lying. It's up to the people making that claim to support their claim with proper sources.
No, YOU are stupid. You have completely outsourced your thinking to Google and AI. You are incapable of thinking for yourself.
Terry, you're just proving you're a MAGA moron who can't recognize a Poe.
gfm7175
Jesus is LORD!
I've already proved what I said (via logic).
Logic is not my opinion. Shipping data is not my opinion.
You are only one person.
You shouldn't allow Google and AI to do your thinking FOR you, Q-tip.
I already have (via logic). You deny logic, so you deny the logical proof. That's all there is to it.
Logic wins every time vs your opinion, Q-tip.
I have no need to do that. I've already made a provable statement supported by both logic and shipping data.
QP!
Verified User
And how do you get "information from sources" without using google search or AI to find what you know exists?
Are you manually searching each web site to see who is reporting the facts without using google or AI to aggregate the facts?
QP!
Verified User
Logic is not a proof but you are too stupid to understand that.
The application of logic is an individualistic thing as each an every person on the planet has their own capacity for logic and if we say "logic is proof' then every single person on the planet is correct by just saying "i used my logic" so that is proof.
Of course only a stupid person thinks that, and thus why you do.
so again you have provided no proof,
In fact, the Reds were saying this could go on through the midterms with gas and inflation soaring.
No doubt. Even if the Strait returned to pre-Trump War levels it would be months for things to return to normal since the oil wells are being shut down due to lack of storage capacity.
It takes a few days to shut them down but weeks to months to open them back up. Part of the problem is that the full oil tankers have to both make their deliveries and then return to drain the land oil tanks before pumps can be restarted.
How the Strait of Hormuz closure affects global oil supply
The conflict in Iran has wide-reaching effects on the world economy.
www.reuters.com