Whose sock is this?
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again.
- Thread starter Cypress
- Start date
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
الله أكبر)
Oil futures prices reflect market expectations for supply and demand at the contract’s delivery date (September 2026, about five months out), not the strait’s real-time status.
The strait is effectively closed (or at a near-standstill) to commercial shipping. It has been disrupted since late February 2026 due to a regional security/naval situation involving Iran. Live trackers show traffic at near-zero to 10% of normal (60 ships/day normally; recent days have seen single-digit transits). Oil throughput is under 2% of normal, with 45–150+ vessels stranded or backed up. Selective/conditional passages exist in some reports, but they are commercially unviable for most tankers due to extreme war-risk insurance costs (up 8–16x) and heightened risks.
Shipping data contradicts political claims of reopening.
Near-term/spot oil prices have spiked precisely because of the disruption. The strait carries ~20–21% of global oil and LNG trade. This has driven Brent to ~$95 and WTI to ~$96 (up 30–50%+ from pre-crisis levels around $65–72), with some production shut-ins in the Middle East.
Jade Dragon
And I'm the one that jaded you.
Probably Legion switching tactics after limits were placed on discussions.
That's some good logic. I have him and most of his socks on ignore, but that one slipped through. I don't think it's ever posted since I joined JPP almost 6 years ago.
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Jade Dragon
And I'm the one that jaded you.
It was created in 2010 and recently had a discussion of theirs bumped from 2018. So, it's been active before. It's the most obvious troll. @christiefan915 even noted they don't seem to know or understand the Quran. Some Islamic extremist.
@Guno צְבִי no doubt. Or the Douche Duck.
The good news is that the Iranians can only play this game so far before the world unites to forcibly opening the waterway...which would require control of a sizable portion of Iran. If they're going to do that, then why not unite to take the brass ring in Tehran and Iran's major Gulf port cities?
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Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
الله أكبر)
September futures indicate the market’s bet that the Hormuz disruption will be temporary and resolved well before September delivery, not that the strait is open today. Oil prices remain highly sensitive to any updates on ceasefires, traffic data, or escalations; the situation is fluid and geopolitically driven.
QP!
Verified User
^^ the guy who cries every time I use AI to provide facts or reports to call out his bullshit is now using AI to support his claims
QP!
Verified User
On this topic the Strait at no point has been entirely closed and that IS NOT the claim. At its most choked Iranian oil was getting to China and a few others.
The point is that it is closed to commerce unless you get iran sign off and pay them if they demand it.
So pointing out a ship here or there getting thru is not proof of anything. Well armed war ships will always be able to go thru if they prepare properly.
None of that means commerce is open again.
The point is that it is closed to commerce unless you get iran sign off and pay them if they demand it.
So pointing out a ship here or there getting thru is not proof of anything. Well armed war ships will always be able to go thru if they prepare properly.
None of that means commerce is open again.
