They are operating at 97 to 100% capacity and cannot meet demand. We need more.
Yes, that description is substantially accurate for mid-to-late 2026.
U.S. refiners have been running near practical maximums, distillate (diesel + heating oil) inventories are tight, and the system has little spare capacity to cover combined domestic use plus elevated exports.
Utilization rates
EIA weekly data for the week ending September 11, 2026 showed national operable capacity utilization at
97.5% (97.6% the prior week). Late-August weeks reached
98.0%, the highest since 2018. Midwest (PADD 2) rates have exceeded 100% on a calendar-day basis in recent weeks; Gulf Coast rates have stayed in the high 97s.
Rates in the mid-to-high 90s are treated as “full tilt.” Refineries can briefly exceed 100% of rated calendar-day capacity, but sustained operation near these levels leaves almost no headroom for maintenance, unplanned outages, or extra diesel yield. Operable U.S. distillation capacity is also lower than pre-pandemic peaks (around 18.03 million b/d recently vs. nearly 19 million earlier).
Demand and inventories
Distillate production has been strong (often 5.1–5.3 million b/d), but demand on U.S. refiners—domestic consumption plus exports—has frequently exceeded output, producing inventory draws. Distillate stocks have run well below five-year seasonal averages (recent figures around 106–108 million barrels). EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projected inventories falling below 100 million barrels in September 2026 and staying below the five-year low into 2027.
A large share of U.S. distillate is exported (often ~1.3–1.8 million b/d recently, well above earlier norms). Global disruptions (Strait of Hormuz/Iran-related outages, Russian refining damage and export curbs) have pulled more U.S. product overseas. High prices have also begun to curb some domestic demand, which is why stocks have not collapsed even faster.
Bottom line
Refineries are running as hard as they reasonably can and still cannot fully balance the market without drawing inventories. Additional output would require more capacity, delayed maintenance (already happening), or weaker export demand. That combination—near-max utilization plus low stocks plus strong export pull—is why diesel cracks and pump prices have been elevated. The situation is a capacity and global-balance issue more than a crude-oil shortage.
Is it true that diesel refineries in the USA are operating at 97 to 100% capacity and cannot meet de
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