Iran War Watch

We are now light years away from the days when Iranians looked up to America, wanted to be like Americans. The Iranians have been saying for weeks that this must hurt America enough that it is never again tempted to pull this shit. We are Big Satan....the Zionist Colony is Little Satan.
 





Alon Mizrahi

@alon_mizrahi



So the biggest military might and superpower and economy and yada yada not only can't take on Iran at war, it cannot even defend its regional whores from Iran's friends while its soldiers and bases take heavy fire with o ability to respond, completely neutralized in their trillion-dollar outfit and kneeling in the dark. I don't think 'sic transit gloria mundi' described anything better in the last 500 years. What a time to be alive, and in love with Iran, and resistance, and human dignity
 
Saudi oil is burning, Hormuz is choked, the Red Sea is closed, and the United States has itself to blame.Steve Hanke, a Johns Hopkins professor and one of the most followed economists on X, pulls no punches:"Trump has actually himself closed 2 of the 8 important straits in the world. The Strait of Hormuz was open before we waged war. That's a war of choice on them."Prof. Hanke believes we will end up with the Iranians permanently managing the strait, and draws a historical comparison to Turkey managing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles since 1936.He says the inflation genie is out of the bottle, the Fed cannot put it back, and diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline are all feeding a structural price problem that predates the war and is now being made dramatically worse.On tariffs, sanctions, and interventionism: "This is a good way to make lots of enemies and put sand in the gears of commerce," and he sees no coherent plan from Trump, just ad hoc decisions made in real time.Then there's the wheat story nobody is covering, the grain corridor out of Odessa being shut down, Russian gloves coming off, European sanctions backfiring on European manufacturing, all of it pointing to a food crisis that oil headlines are crowding out...We've only begun to see the consequences of this war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2081492653192126897
View: https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2081492653192126897
 





Glenn Diesen

@Glenn_Diesen



In early March, Lindsey Graham predicted that several Iranian cities would fall within 3–4 weeks and that the US would get Arab states directly involved in the war. It is now the end of July, and Iran controls its entire territory, as well as the Strait of Hormuz, while US bases across the Gulf states are devastated. The neocons always overestimate what can be achieved with military power and consistently leave the US in a weaker position. However, they nonetheless always get their war.
 





Brett Erickson

@BrettErickson28


With the viral footage of Lindsay Graham bragging about how he convinced Trump to attack Iran, and how Trump “loves to blow things up”, there are a couple takeaways that I find notable.First… if you want people to not trash you when you’re dead, don’t be trash while you’re alive.Second… we have a President incredibly susceptible to influence. Both foreign and domestic. This should be significant cause for concern given the precarious and volatile situation in the Iran War.At a time when the world is at risk of a significant economic crisis, a significant humanitarian crisis, and on the verge of an escalation that could see thousands and thousands killed, having a President so easily manipulated should make everyone question the durability of any peace deal… if one can even be reached at all.As we saw during the first MOU, the U.S. and Iran were able to make a deal, only for Trump to promptly rip it up and return to war, heavily influenced by those around him that yearn for the Iran War to continue.The ease of manipulation will be cause for concern for Iran, who continues to see Trump as someone unable to be trusted to see a deal through to its end.This could very well see Iran incentivized to take the global economy off the cliff FIRST so that Trump is left without the ability to resume the war even if goaded into it because it would immediately create a crisis. Not a potential one, not a future one, but an immediate collapse.This is the danger of a President so easily manipulated.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Glenn Diesen
@Glenn_Diesen



In early March, Lindsey Graham predicted that several Iranian cities would fall within 3–4 weeks and that the US would get Arab states directly involved in the war. It is now the end of July, and Iran controls its entire territory, as well as the Strait of Hormuz, while US bases across the Gulf states are devastated. The neocons always overestimate what can be achieved with military power and consistently leave the US in a weaker position. However, they nonetheless always get their war.
Click to expand...
You seem to be hallucinating, Hawk. Put down the bong.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Saudi oil is burning, Hormuz is choked, the Red Sea is closed, and the United States has itself to blame.Steve Hanke, a Johns Hopkins professor and one of the most followed economists on X, pulls no punches:"Trump has actually himself closed 2 of the 8 important straits in the world. The Strait of Hormuz was open before we waged war. That's a war of choice on them."Prof. Hanke believes we will end up with the Iranians permanently managing the strait, and draws a historical comparison to Turkey managing the Bosphorus and Dardanelles since 1936.He says the inflation genie is out of the bottle, the Fed cannot put it back, and diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline are all feeding a structural price problem that predates the war and is now being made dramatically worse.On tariffs, sanctions, and interventionism: "This is a good way to make lots of enemies and put sand in the gears of commerce," and he sees no coherent plan from Trump, just ad hoc decisions made in real time.Then there's the wheat story nobody is covering, the grain corridor out of Odessa being shut down, Russian gloves coming off, European sanctions backfiring on European manufacturing, all of it pointing to a food crisis that oil headlines are crowding out...We've only begun to see the consequences of this war.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2081492653192126897
View: https://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/2081492653192126897
Click to expand...
Put down the bong, Hawk. Whatever you are smoking is causing severe hallucinations.
 





Brett Erickson

@BrettErickson28


The unfortunate reality for Trump and the rest of the world is that surrender is not as straightforward as he may like. This is directly attributable to his previous actions against Iran proving time and time again that he is not trustworthy, and that poses great danger now.The calculus facing Iran as to whether or not to agree to any kind of deal with the US is fairly simple:It must guarantee no short or medium term continuation of the war. And even then... that may not be enough.For many in Iran, the way to accomplish that is to continue their economic stranglehold over the global economy to the point that so much damage has occurred that no President would DARE resume the war... Trump or otherwise.The other alternative is that Trump makes such severe concessions, in an up front and irreversible manner, that it is simply ridiculous to restart the war thinking a positive result can be attained. This, in my opinion, would need to be at LEAST $100B in assets given to Iran before so much as the Iranian blockade is lifted this time around.The ONLY reason why Iran agreed to the MOU previously is because it was strategically advantageous for them to do so. At the time of its lifting, Iran had 60M barrels of oil already loaded onto tankers inside the blockade line ready to ship. This meant that when the Strait reopened, they were able to move all of this outside the blockade line... plus another 20M, for a total of 80M barrels. On top of this, they were able to rapidly import critical essential goods such as wheat, medical supplies, cooking oil, and proteins that the US had intended to cause shortages of during the blockade.And it worked. Iran entered the renewed dueling blockades in a MORE strategically advantageous position than they were when the MOU was signed (you can read my op-ed in The Hill published on 7/5 for more).Now though? They simply have no REASON to lift the blockade unless Trump REALLY coughs up the cash. No half-measures, no "trust me bro's".Cold. Hard. Cash.And it's possible that even THIS may not be sufficient for Iran to take a deal. Think about it from their perspective. Trump CLEARLY cannot return to war in any meaningful way. We don't have the munitions, we don't have the manpower, we don't have the SUPPORT of the American people... and Iran still holds overwhelming escalation dominance in the event that we do.Why sign a deal NOW when they can get the same or better deal in the future, but with more of a deterrence by further damaging the global economy, ensuring that President Trump would immediately trigger full-scale economic collapse if they maintain this through the mid-terms?While Iran has proven to be incredibly pragmatic in this war, the unfortunate reality is that the... rational decision now is to take the global economy further off the cliff. Even IF Trump is willing to cough up the cash, Iran has seen how irrational and erratic he is. There's no trust.Trump may have stepped down from disastrous escalation, but we're nowhere close to being out of the weeds here.
 





Tom Nichols

@RadioFreeTom


Years ago, a USAF general came to the Naval War College and said: "Strategy? Strategy is just ordnance on target."The faculty said: Uh, no.But today that mindset - lethality! - clearly dominated our Iran planning.And that's why we are where we are
 





The Hormuz Letter

@HormuzLetter



BREAKING: Iran directly rejects Trump‘s claims of ongoing negotiations, with Iran's Foreign Ministry declaring it is "not engaged in any negotiations with the United States" and says Iran has not requested to restart talks because "it's not in our DNA," instead the US has requested talks, per Tasnim.Iran also reaffirms the situation in the Strait of Hormuz has not changed and the Strait remains completely closed to all lanes.
 
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