Tomorrow, thoughts on who will win.

Jarod

Jarod

Truth Teller
Contributor
The polls are strong for Democrats and media is expecting and suggesting a larger number of Democrats will turn out in big numbers, but they could be wrong by a few percentages and the close races are within that margin. That is the difference between a Senate majority or no for either party.

In other words the senate is within the MOE in enough cases that it is not clear.

I do think it will be one or the other... meaning that if the pollsters are wrong they will be all around wrong and one party or the other will win all of the close ones. A big night for the Republicans (likely) will let them keep the Senate. A big night for the Democrats will have them with a close minority.

My read, the Democrats chances of taking the Senate are overrated. If I were the type to bet I like the odds for the Republicans in the Senate.
 
Jarod said:
The polls are strong for Democrats and media is expecting and suggesting a larger number of Democrats will turn out in big numbers, but they could be wrong by a few percentages and the close races are within that margin. That is the difference between a Senate majority or no for either party.

In other words the senate is within the MOE in enough cases that it is not clear.

I do think it will be one or the other... meaning that if the pollsters are wrong they will be all around wrong and one party or the other will win all of the close ones. A big night for the Republicans (likely) will let them keep the Senate. A big night for the Democrats will have them with a close minority.

My read, the Democrats chances of taking the Senate are overrated. If I were the type to bet I like the odds for the Republicans in the Senate.
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I agree. I am not inclined to bet on this thing at all, but if forced, I would bet that the Republicans keep the Senate. It would not astonish me, though, if the Democrats manage to get the 2 vote majority needed. I figure the Democrats will win the House easily...and that Trump will go ape-shit with his "the vote was rigged" bullshit.
 
Ross Dolan said:
I agree. I am not inclined to bet on this thing at all, but if forced, I would bet that the Republicans keep the Senate. It would not astonish me, though, if the Democrats manage to get the 2 vote majority needed. I figure the Democrats will win the House easily...and that Trump will go ape-shit with his "the vote was rigged" bullshit.
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Yup, and the Alaska thing will be his big whipping horse, but in a few months the Supreme Court would issue an order getting her seated .
 
Jarod said:
The polls are strong for Democrats and media is expecting and suggesting a larger number of Democrats will turn out in big numbers, but they could be wrong by a few percentages and the close races are within that margin. That is the difference between a Senate majority or no for either party.

In other words the senate is within the MOE in enough cases that it is not clear.

I do think it will be one or the other... meaning that if the pollsters are wrong they will be all around wrong and one party or the other will win all of the close ones. A big night for the Republicans (likely) will let them keep the Senate. A big night for the Democrats will have them with a close minority.

My read, the Democrats chances of taking the Senate are overrated. If I were the type to bet I like the odds for the Republicans in the Senate.
Click to expand...
Why don't you wait until Wed morning? Give CA a couple weeks.
 
Ya hard to see everything aligning so well for the Dems to get the senate.

That was something not even on the table at the start of Trump's term due to seats being contested being mostly strong magat ones.

It is only because of Trump massive incompetence that the Dems have any chance there. A question of how many magats being deeply hurt by Trump policy just stay home versus those who show up to vote to continue their own beating.
 
Jarod said:
The polls are strong for Democrats and media is expecting and suggesting a larger number of Democrats will turn out in big numbers, but they could be wrong by a few percentages and the close races are within that margin. That is the difference between a Senate majority or no for either party.

In other words the senate is within the MOE in enough cases that it is not clear.

I do think it will be one or the other... meaning that if the pollsters are wrong they will be all around wrong and one party or the other will win all of the close ones. A big night for the Republicans (likely) will let them keep the Senate. A big night for the Democrats will have them with a close minority.

My read, the Democrats chances of taking the Senate are overrated. If I were the type to bet I like the odds for the Republicans in the Senate.
Click to expand...
Which polls? The one floating inside your head? No links = jarod just flapping his gums
 
Yakuda said:
Which polls? The one floating inside your head? No links = jarod just flapping his gums
Click to expand...
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Anything BUT a blue wave would be kind of astounding.

Trump is historically unpopular, and Republicans in general have run a terrible campaign. The party out of power almost always picks up seats. Polls have really been trending for Dems - and polls aren't wildly inaccurate like some claim. They're generally very close to the final results.

I'm usually cautious, but people want change, and they want checks on power. Dems are winning both houses tomorrow.
 
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