Iran War Watch

Hawkeye10 said:
Here’s a bombshell global famine analysis you haven’t heard anywhere else:For each day that the war with Iran continues, about 400 million people will face a day with no food in the 2027-2028 time frame. (I will show you the math.)Even more shockingly, MOST of the starvation and food desperation will occur in nations that have no involvement whatsoever in this war.Thus, the current casualties on the ground, of U.S. soldiers, Iranians or Israelis, will be absolutely dwarfed by the number of famine casualties around the world (largely concentrated in SE Asia, Africa and some Middle Eastern countries such as Somalia).Here’s the math:It is broadly understood by most food scientists and agricultural analysts that synthetic fertilizers currently feed about half the world’s population: roughly 4 billion people.If you conduct deep research on the percentage of synthetic fertilizer that comes out of the Persian Gulf, mostly via natural gas extraction and the Haber-Bosch process to create nitrogen-based fertilizers, you come to find that Persian Gulf fertilizer production accounts to 8% - 12% of the world’s total fertilizer production. (Most fertilizer is produced and consumed domestically and isn’t traded on international markets, so even though Persian Gulf exports as much as one-third of globally TRADED fertilizer, it only accounts for 8% - 12% of global fertilizer production.)If we settle on 10% here, then we realize that Persian Gulf fertilizer exports keep about 400 million people alive around the world. Thus, end to end, one day of halted fertilizer exports results in around 400 million people not having food for one day, in the end. (The pipeline is long and convoluted due to growing seasons, food harvests, stored food supplies, and so on.)Similarly, 10 days of continued closure means roughly about 400 million people having nothing to eat for 10 days. Now, we have to account for the fact that people don’t starve instantly. They can survive some period of time without food. This is typically limited to a few weeks. Few people can survive past 45 days without food. So unless food is redistributed from the food-abundant nations to the food-scarce nations, just 45 days of closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates an “air pocket” in the fertilizer supply chains that puts the lives of up to 400 million people at risk due to food scarcity, in its simplest form. But reality is more complex...Especially when hungry, people are resourceful and most will take steps to avoid starving. There’s the cannibalism factor when people start eating each other, for example. That can keep some groups fed for a while longer, although the people they eat obviously won’t survive. Similarly, there will be much more local hunting of animals (even rats), dumpster diving, the eating of zoo animals, the neighbor’s cat, etc. When hungry, people will eat shoe laces, leather, tree bark, cardboard and all sorts of other things they normally wouldn’t eat, and when you see this behavior, you know things are bad.There are also resourceful people who will refuse to die from starvation because they will hunt, kill and eat a variety of animals, or they will steal from grocery stores, hijack food delivery trucks, etc., in order to survive. And some food-abundant nations will make efforts to contribute food to those nations where famine is worsening. So I don’t think anywhere near 400 million people will actually die from starvation. The number might be much smaller, perhaps just one-tenth: 40 million. But even then, that number is shockingly far higher than any number currently in the minds of anyone in the mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon, or even the UN.Almost nobody realizes the long-term mass famine repercussions of this ongoing war, and how Trump’s actions are in effect risking the lives of potentially tens of millions of people IN THE FUTURE (next year, mostly), because of the long pipeline of energy → fertilizer → food. The energy is cut off today, the fertilizer runs out soon, and the famine kicks in not long after that.This isn’t just a question of food costing more. It’s an issue of the food simply not existing because it’s not being grown due to the lack of fertilizer. Or crops that are grown produce far lower yields because of the lack of fertilizer. In a worst-case scenario, around 5% of the total global population could face high risk of famine in 2027-2028, or even longer if this war continues.Put another way, Trump isn’t simply waging war on Iran. His war of choice is actually a war against the human race, and it’s a war against the innocent civilians and children in marginalized nations like Bangladesh, Somalia, Yemen, and even nations like India and Egypt where food security is dicey even in a good year. If not halted, Trump’s war could quite literally end up killing far more humans than the Holocaust of World War II. Multiples of that.That’s the path we are currently on. Spread the word. Do your own research on this. Tell me why I’m wrong if you think I’m wrong. Tell me where the food is going to come from if the fertilizer doesn’t flow out of the Persian Gulf.Because you can do all the research in the world, and it doesn’t change the facts on the ground. If the strait stays closed, the world begins to starve, and the starvation escalates dramatically in 2027 to the point where easily tens of millions of people will face the risk of dying from famine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078955755772796996
View: https://x.com/HealthRanger/status/2078955755772796996
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sounds over hyped.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
It might have happened......the Empire tried spoofing but here is the thing.....if the Iranians struck a Chinese ship by mistake caused by the Empire then the Chinese know what happened..... and hold the Iranians blameless.
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yes. they're allies.

which is why trump is re-targetting China and holding them accountable for their support of American election fraud.


the bitch is back.
 
Brett Erickson

@BrettErickson28


Many Americans… many people around the world are failing to understand the slippery slope facing the Trump Administration in the Iran War.At this time, here are the following options facing President Trump:1) Sign an even worse deal with Iran that includes significant up front asset unfreezing.2) Escalate massively.That’s it. Those are the two outcomes facing Trump. The REASON for this is simple. The Iranian’s are not going to capitulate at this point. This is an existential war for them, and President Trump has made of series of unforced errors to galvanize domestic support for the regime. On the first day of the war, the U.S. bombed a school killing 168 children. Then President Trump followed this by threatening to wipe out their entire civilization.I’m sorry, you simply cannot reasonably assert that the Iranian people are going to rise up and topple the regime at this point when there have been zero indications whatsoever of anything other than a rallying around the flag effect taking place.And you can’t reasonably assert that the Iranian regime is going to make nuclear, proxy, or missile and drone concessions at a time when domestic support is galvanizing to fight the “Great and Little Satan”. That would INCREASE the likelihood of public uprisings now, not decrease it.As a result, Trump is facing either a worse deal, or significant escalation. But significant escalation… what does that even look like at this point?It’s certainly not “let’s just use the Omani Route and undermine the Strait of Hormuz leverage”… that doesn’t work when vessel after vessel has been hit utilizing this route.Seizing Kharg Island? Greater and Lesser Tunb? Qeshm? Larak? Iran is striking American BASES hundreds of miles away right now. You think they somehow would be unable to hit undefeated commercial vessels from that same distance? How does that logic work?So then what are you left with? What is your solution? The only options that anyone seems to be able to put forth is utilizing WMD’s, or launching a massive full-scale ground invasion against a country of 95M people… that is on the cutting edge of drone warfare… that has an unforgiving terrain… in the middle of summer.What’s the BEST outcome there? Without question, Iran would move forward with shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb. They would immediately move to destroy Gulf energy and water infrastructure…And the United States would be trapped back in to a forever war. Thousands of Americans would die, and in the farfetched scenario where this actually topples the regime? At LEAST 20% of the population is hardcore for the regime… and likely far higher after Minab and Trump threatening to wipe out their entire civilization… and after we slaughter countless thousands of their countrymen in a ground invasion?I sure hope our sons and daughters are ready for a counterinsurgency of 40M utilizing drone warfare.At the end of the day, this simply is not a hard decision to make from a logical standpoint. The Memorandum of Understanding was NOT that bad. Was it our desired outcome here? Of course not.But it’s time for the Trump Administration to look at the alternative. President Trump: You campaigned on no new wars. Certainly no more forever wars. The only people that are standing by to criticize you for extricating the United States here are the very people whose disastrous advocacy led us to this point.It’s time to get back to putting AMERICA first.
 
QP! said:
But Trump told us Iran's arms and ability to deliver them were all decimated and that Iran could not attack anyone.

So was he lying?
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That was 1 drone.
Hawkeye10 said:
It might have happened......the Empire tried spoofing but here is the thing.....if the Iranians struck a Chinese ship by mistake caused by the Empire then the Chinese know what happened..... and hold the Iranians blameless.
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^Yeah, like that Chinese ship full of small arms the Iranians took over, retard. Pwahahahaha! :LOL:
It was small arms supply for mercenaries to protect China's shipping interests in the area.
Bet ya didn't know about that one, huh? :rolleyes2:
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Brett Erickson
@BrettErickson28


Many Americans… many people around the world are failing to understand the slippery slope facing the Trump Administration in the Iran War.At this time, here are the following options facing President Trump:1) Sign an even worse deal with Iran that includes significant up front asset unfreezing.2) Escalate massively.That’s it. Those are the two outcomes facing Trump. The REASON for this is simple. The Iranian’s are not going to capitulate at this point. This is an existential war for them, and President Trump has made of series of unforced errors to galvanize domestic support for the regime. On the first day of the war, the U.S. bombed a school killing 168 children. Then President Trump followed this by threatening to wipe out their entire civilization.I’m sorry, you simply cannot reasonably assert that the Iranian people are going to rise up and topple the regime at this point when there have been zero indications whatsoever of anything other than a rallying around the flag effect taking place.And you can’t reasonably assert that the Iranian regime is going to make nuclear, proxy, or missile and drone concessions at a time when domestic support is galvanizing to fight the “Great and Little Satan”. That would INCREASE the likelihood of public uprisings now, not decrease it.As a result, Trump is facing either a worse deal, or significant escalation. But significant escalation… what does that even look like at this point?It’s certainly not “let’s just use the Omani Route and undermine the Strait of Hormuz leverage”… that doesn’t work when vessel after vessel has been hit utilizing this route.Seizing Kharg Island? Greater and Lesser Tunb? Qeshm? Larak? Iran is striking American BASES hundreds of miles away right now. You think they somehow would be unable to hit undefeated commercial vessels from that same distance? How does that logic work?So then what are you left with? What is your solution? The only options that anyone seems to be able to put forth is utilizing WMD’s, or launching a massive full-scale ground invasion against a country of 95M people… that is on the cutting edge of drone warfare… that has an unforgiving terrain… in the middle of summer.What’s the BEST outcome there? Without question, Iran would move forward with shutting down the Bab al-Mandeb. They would immediately move to destroy Gulf energy and water infrastructure…And the United States would be trapped back in to a forever war. Thousands of Americans would die, and in the farfetched scenario where this actually topples the regime? At LEAST 20% of the population is hardcore for the regime… and likely far higher after Minab and Trump threatening to wipe out their entire civilization… and after we slaughter countless thousands of their countrymen in a ground invasion?I sure hope our sons and daughters are ready for a counterinsurgency of 40M utilizing drone warfare.At the end of the day, this simply is not a hard decision to make from a logical standpoint. The Memorandum of Understanding was NOT that bad. Was it our desired outcome here? Of course not.But it’s time for the Trump Administration to look at the alternative. President Trump: You campaigned on no new wars. Certainly no more forever wars. The only people that are standing by to criticize you for extricating the United States here are the very people whose disastrous advocacy led us to this point.It’s time to get back to putting AMERICA first.
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false dichotomy fallacy.

secret option c, kill them all.
 
Matt Dillon said:
That was 1 drone.

^Yeah, like that Chinese ship full of small arms the Iranians took over, retard. Pwahahahaha! :LOL:
It was small arms supply for mercenaries to protect China's shipping interests in the area.
Bet ya didn't know about that one, huh? :rolleyes2:
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China is the final boss enemy.

sorry libertarian globalist who loves putting America out of work with Chinese slop; this was always the path to ruin and its sad all you neocons fell for it.

methinks it was always a traitor plan. the plotter and planner have admitted this.
 
Jerry Mathers said:
China is the final boss enemy.

sorry libertarian globalist who loves putting America out of work with Chinese slop; this was always the path to ruin and its sad all you neocons fell for it.

methinks it was always a traitor plan. the plotter and planner have admitted this.
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China fights the good fight against Evil.
 
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