Iran War Watch

Listen to
@vali_nasr
carefully. Iran’s calculation is that this has to last longer much than a few weeks. The blockade of the Gulf would have to go on for long enough so that Trump says, “I don’t want to do this again.” Even the doves no longer believe that they can get anything without imposing dramatically higher costs on the US. This means that they have to crash the world economy to teach Trump a lesson he won’t forget. Nasr thinks this is a risky strategy. But again, what alternatives are available to Iran at this point? How can Iran surrender the Hormuz weapon — bc that is what the US is demanding de facto — and hope to tell the tale? What other course of action is available to Tehran to deter the US from attacking it again? How else can Iran get out of the jail than the West has put it in? Ofc, it is risky and costly. But it is superior to all alternatives available to Tehran now that the possibility of an accommodation has been rejected by the US. Sometimes you have to take risks. One such time is when your survival as an independent state is on the line. This is why the Iranian strategy is correct.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078623392559980795
View: https://x.com/policytensor/status/2078623392559980795
 
Hawkeye10 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2078623435471671804
View: https://x.com/simpatico771/status/2078623435471671804
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Hawkeye10 said:
Listen to
@vali_nasr
carefully. Iran’s calculation is that this has to last longer much than a few weeks. The blockade of the Gulf would have to go on for long enough so that Trump says, “I don’t want to do this again.” Even the doves no longer believe that they can get anything without imposing dramatically higher costs on the US. This means that they have to crash the world economy to teach Trump a lesson he won’t forget. Nasr thinks this is a risky strategy. But again, what alternatives are available to Iran at this point? How can Iran surrender the Hormuz weapon — bc that is what the US is demanding de facto — and hope to tell the tale? What other course of action is available to Tehran to deter the US from attacking it again? How else can Iran get out of the jail than the West has put it in? Ofc, it is risky and costly. But it is superior to all alternatives available to Tehran now that the possibility of an accommodation has been rejected by the US. Sometimes you have to take risks. One such time is when your survival as an independent state is on the line. This is why the Iranian strategy is correct.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078623392559980795
View: https://x.com/policytensor/status/2078623392559980795
Click to expand...

Hawkeye10 said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/2078605505623462051
View: https://x.com/Soureh_design2/status/2078605505623462051
Click to expand...
Here we go, fucknugget. It's going down right now.
May the best man win.
https://twitter.com/x/status/2078605013878710482
View: https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/2078605013878710482?s=20
 
Its terrorism........its demonic:

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US strategy in Iran is reduced to dropping enormous amounts of bombs and missiles to what purpose? What can do to Iran that we haven’t done already in the first 40 days? Collective punishment. That’s a Netanyahu tactic that has never brought peace. This isn’t war, it’s irrational flailing. Us forces are lashing out wildly. It’s just slaughter for the fun of it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078592295822381310
View: https://x.com/MalcolmNance/status/2078592295822381310
 
https://x.com/IranAlhurra
إيران الحر"

@IranAlhurra
·
17h


Translated from Arabic
#BREAKING_NEWSField reports from Iranian cities indicate that cities in southern Iran are under heavy bombardment by American aircraft, amid catastrophic conditions faced by citizens, while the criminal Iranian regime has cut off water and electricity to the residents amid temperatures reaching 50 degrees Celsius."
https://twitter.com/x/status/2078386193192947957
View: https://x.com/IranAlhurra/status/2078386193192947957?s=20
Idk about all this.
 
One of the most fascinating aspects of the Memorandum of Understanding that was signed was that it did NOT include the immediate and up front unfreezing of assets from the United States.At the time, this looked like an incredible misstep by Iran. By securing the upfront unfreezing of assets, speculated in the lead up to the MOU as being between $6B, $12B, or $24B, Iran would have been able to unwind essentially ALL of the damage they incurred during the 66 days of the US blockade.What I see now is an Iranian regime that has always managed to stay one step ahead of everyone. The Iranian's KNEW that President Trump had no intention of abiding by the terms of the MOU. And... they were absolutely right.BUT, in the 27 days that the US and Iranian blockades were lifted, Iran was able to export 80M barrels of oil, a rate 180% higher than their normal budgeted export rate of 1.77Mbpd in their 1405 budget bill. On top of this, they were able to rapidly import critical essential goods such as wheat, medical supplies, cooking oil, and proteins.The United States, in very stark contrast, did not even come CLOSE to normalizing imports and exports through the Strait of Hormuz, much less exceeding 100% as Iran did.As a direct result of this, Iran is now entering the renewed war in a STRONGER position than they entered. A position that resulted in President Trump signing the effective surrender MOU at Versailles in June.Now, Iran has FAR more leverage to secure even MORE favorable terms in a future MOU. One that includes SIGNIFICANT up front and irreversible asset unfreezing. One that establishes total control over the Strait of Hormuz. One that creates a permanent deterrent to US interference in the region.Iran KNEW that President Trump wouldn't abide by the MOU. They KNEW that the United States planned to continue to attempt to push through vessels via the Omani Route. They KNEW that this would eventually devolve into a renewed conflict...And they planned accordingly.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078528751525314904
View: https://x.com/BrettErickson28/status/2078528751525314904
 
basically the categorical error the US has made in the geopolitical arena is trying to turn back the clock to an area of “great power politics” when it lacks the biggest stick in the roomcompounding this issue is that its main adversaries have arguably the best diplomatic corps on earth (china & russia)basically america’s ability to convert its strong soft power into material wins via diplomacy is permanently limited

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078550128466817255
View: https://x.com/fredsoda/status/2078550128466817255
 
He is Joe "Cognitive Infiltrator" Kent proposing killing Iranians for defending themselves against US aggression launched against them inside their own borders by the US whose troops and bases are closer to Iran than America's own shores...The US has no business in West Asia at all - let alone "negotiating" with Iran regarding ANYTHING. Cognitive infiltration involves people repeating popular opposition narratives to win over people who otherwise reject official narratives - then they slowly re-inject establishment talking points to get otherwise awake people to go back to sleep. Joe Kent pretends to be against war on Iran, but here he is reinforcing the notion the US has some sort of right to strike back. to dictate matters in West Asia, and "negotiate" with Iran. Cognitive infiltration in its current form is an institutionalized form of public perception management introduced at least as early as the Obama administration - specifically targeting what is considered "alternative media" and its audience.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078664763438215316
View: https://x.com/BrianJBerletic/status/2078664763438215316
 
It has already proven impossible to win by relying solely on airstrikes and killing all senior officials without sending in ground troops. If you don’t put troops on the ground, you can’t control what happens inside Iran, which means any agreement reached could easily be overturned. You can keep killing new batches of senior Iranian officials, but that won’t change the structure of the situation.

For a ceasefire agreement to be implemented, you need a functioning Iranian government that isn’t internally conflicted. The truth is, if the U.S. doesn’t send in ground forces, such a government is very unlikely to form. Right now, both Muslim and secular Iranians have a poor impression of the U.S., and even if an Iranian government willing to submit to the U.S. did exist, it would be hard for it to survive—there would always be a revolution that overthrows it.

That’s why the U.S. has to send in ground troops. I think it’s only a matter of time. Probably in winter, when the weather cools down and becomes suitable for ground operations in the Middle East, the U.S. will do it. Trust me, U.S. leadership isn’t that concerned about avoiding getting bogged down in a long conflict. I think there will be a fairly large-scale ground operation.
 
The biggest mistake the American public makes is believing that Iran is a rundown house that will collapse with one kick. The common narrative is that the Iranian government oppresses its people. Another version of that same narrative could be applied to China. As a Chinese person, I know firsthand how wrong that narrative is. I’ve tried to explain this to Americans—and most of the time, on another forum, to British people—but the truth is, no one believes me. That’s a real problem, because this across-the-board misperception in American society, whether on the left or the right, will eventually lead U.S. leadership to make some fundamental mistakes. You can’t even blame the U.S. president or anyone around him, because all of them grew up in that same American social environment. Their views are ultimately shaped by what American society has long believed about these issues.
 
Jack Grealish said:
The biggest mistake the American public makes is believing that Iran is a rundown house that will collapse with one kick. The common narrative is that the Iranian government oppresses its people. Another version of that same narrative could be applied to China. As a Chinese person, I know firsthand how wrong that narrative is. I’ve tried to explain this to Americans—and most of the time, on another forum, to British people—but the truth is, no one believes me. That’s a real problem, because this across-the-board misperception in American society, whether on the left or the right, will eventually lead U.S. leadership to make some fundamental mistakes. You can’t even blame the U.S. president or anyone around him, because all of them grew up in that same American social environment. Their views are ultimately shaped by what American society has long believed about these issues.
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Vast ignorance and decades of military grade brainwashing, plus a system where shit rises to the top.....Andrei Martyanov talks about how Hegseth would not be allowed to run a Company in the Russian military, and how the American Generals know nothing about war except what they have seen in the movies.
 
Here’s a bombshell global famine analysis you haven’t heard anywhere else:For each day that the war with Iran continues, about 400 million people will face a day with no food in the 2027-2028 time frame. (I will show you the math.)Even more shockingly, MOST of the starvation and food desperation will occur in nations that have no involvement whatsoever in this war.Thus, the current casualties on the ground, of U.S. soldiers, Iranians or Israelis, will be absolutely dwarfed by the number of famine casualties around the world (largely concentrated in SE Asia, Africa and some Middle Eastern countries such as Somalia).Here’s the math:It is broadly understood by most food scientists and agricultural analysts that synthetic fertilizers currently feed about half the world’s population: roughly 4 billion people.If you conduct deep research on the percentage of synthetic fertilizer that comes out of the Persian Gulf, mostly via natural gas extraction and the Haber-Bosch process to create nitrogen-based fertilizers, you come to find that Persian Gulf fertilizer production accounts to 8% - 12% of the world’s total fertilizer production. (Most fertilizer is produced and consumed domestically and isn’t traded on international markets, so even though Persian Gulf exports as much as one-third of globally TRADED fertilizer, it only accounts for 8% - 12% of global fertilizer production.)If we settle on 10% here, then we realize that Persian Gulf fertilizer exports keep about 400 million people alive around the world. Thus, end to end, one day of halted fertilizer exports results in around 400 million people not having food for one day, in the end. (The pipeline is long and convoluted due to growing seasons, food harvests, stored food supplies, and so on.)Similarly, 10 days of continued closure means roughly about 400 million people having nothing to eat for 10 days. Now, we have to account for the fact that people don’t starve instantly. They can survive some period of time without food. This is typically limited to a few weeks. Few people can survive past 45 days without food. So unless food is redistributed from the food-abundant nations to the food-scarce nations, just 45 days of closure of the Strait of Hormuz creates an “air pocket” in the fertilizer supply chains that puts the lives of up to 400 million people at risk due to food scarcity, in its simplest form. But reality is more complex...Especially when hungry, people are resourceful and most will take steps to avoid starving. There’s the cannibalism factor when people start eating each other, for example. That can keep some groups fed for a while longer, although the people they eat obviously won’t survive. Similarly, there will be much more local hunting of animals (even rats), dumpster diving, the eating of zoo animals, the neighbor’s cat, etc. When hungry, people will eat shoe laces, leather, tree bark, cardboard and all sorts of other things they normally wouldn’t eat, and when you see this behavior, you know things are bad.There are also resourceful people who will refuse to die from starvation because they will hunt, kill and eat a variety of animals, or they will steal from grocery stores, hijack food delivery trucks, etc., in order to survive. And some food-abundant nations will make efforts to contribute food to those nations where famine is worsening. So I don’t think anywhere near 400 million people will actually die from starvation. The number might be much smaller, perhaps just one-tenth: 40 million. But even then, that number is shockingly far higher than any number currently in the minds of anyone in the mainstream media, the White House, the Pentagon, or even the UN.Almost nobody realizes the long-term mass famine repercussions of this ongoing war, and how Trump’s actions are in effect risking the lives of potentially tens of millions of people IN THE FUTURE (next year, mostly), because of the long pipeline of energy → fertilizer → food. The energy is cut off today, the fertilizer runs out soon, and the famine kicks in not long after that.This isn’t just a question of food costing more. It’s an issue of the food simply not existing because it’s not being grown due to the lack of fertilizer. Or crops that are grown produce far lower yields because of the lack of fertilizer. In a worst-case scenario, around 5% of the total global population could face high risk of famine in 2027-2028, or even longer if this war continues.Put another way, Trump isn’t simply waging war on Iran. His war of choice is actually a war against the human race, and it’s a war against the innocent civilians and children in marginalized nations like Bangladesh, Somalia, Yemen, and even nations like India and Egypt where food security is dicey even in a good year. If not halted, Trump’s war could quite literally end up killing far more humans than the Holocaust of World War II. Multiples of that.That’s the path we are currently on. Spread the word. Do your own research on this. Tell me why I’m wrong if you think I’m wrong. Tell me where the food is going to come from if the fertilizer doesn’t flow out of the Persian Gulf.Because you can do all the research in the world, and it doesn’t change the facts on the ground. If the strait stays closed, the world begins to starve, and the starvation escalates dramatically in 2027 to the point where easily tens of millions of people will face the risk of dying from famine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/2078955755772796996
View: https://x.com/HealthRanger/status/2078955755772796996
 
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