Hello FreeSpeech,
The U.S. Has Flattened the Curve. Next Up Is 'Squashing' It — and That's Not Going Well
https://time.com/5827156/squashing-squash-curve-coronavirus-covid19/
We flattened the curve the peak is in reference to new cases these deaths are from old cases, every projection has been grossly exaggerated pseudoscience, get your facts straight.
Good article. Thanks. OK, let's dig down on this.
Here's an interesting article from The Hill: [with my comments]
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"Johns Hopkins University on Tuesday said analysis included in leaked government documents that showed the U.S. could see up to 3,000 deaths per day from coronavirus was not meant to be used for official forecasts. [confirms the OP as accurate at the time]
[Now we have more information] The university said researchers at its school of public health produced the study for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to assist in planning for various scenarios as states begin loosening their restrictions intended to slow the spread of the virus.
"These preliminary results are not forecasts, and it is not accurate to present them as forecasts," the school of public health said in a statement.
"The information illustrates that there are some scenarios, including the premature relaxation of social distancing, that are likely to cause significant increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths in the United States."
The Johns Hopkins study was featured in documents from FEMA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that showed the U.S. reaching 200,000 new cases daily by June 1, with a daily death toll of roughly 3,000. Both figures would be a substantial increase over current daily averages.
"Those projections are without mitigation. We’re doing a lot of mitigation," President Trump said as he boarded Air Force One for a trip to Arizona."
Johns Hopkins: Dire analysis in CDC documents not meant for COVID-19 death forecasts
"Hours after the Johns Hopkins study was first reported, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, an influential model cited by government officials, recalibrated its projections on Monday afternoon to account for increasing mobility as restrictions are lifted. The model now projects nearly 135,000 deaths through the beginning of August, nearly double what it had been estimating as of Monday morning.
The two studies reflect the likelihood that the U.S. will see increasing case numbers and deaths from coronavirus as states begin gradually lifting restrictions and allowing certain businesses to reopen."
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This looks like an example of where the media sensationalized a story and ran with it a little too quickly.
It was shocking to see that story, so I'm glad to now here that it may not be as bad as that story made it out to be. Nice to have some encouraging updates in this ever-evolving story that the president
wishes he could control.
When I stated in the OP title that we have not reached the peak yet, I was not referring to daily new cases. I did not specify which curve I was referring to. I will clarify this now, and I stand behind my word:
The OP title of this thread stated that we have not seen the peak yet. The peak I did not specify, that I was talking about, is the peak of
Active Cases. That figure will reach a peak at some point in time, but that curve
has not flattened out yet.